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GTA 6 Could Cost As Much As $100, Some Hope; Analyst Clarifies Comments

If Take-Two raises prices to $80 or more, other publishers could apparently follow suit.

99 Comments

Veteran investment analyst and researcher Matthew Ball of Epyllion has released a gargantuan, 219-page report about the "State of Video Gaming in 2025," and some of the presentation looks at how the video game industry can possibly grow in 2025. In a section titled "How Player, Playertime, and Player Spend Might Return to Growth," Ball mentioned a variety of opportunities, including Grand Theft Auto VI costing as much as $100 when it launches this year.

Ball said "there is hope" among some in the market that Take-Two will price GTA 6 at "$80 or even $100," which could prove to be a turning point for the video game industry. This could break a "key price barrier" and allow other developers to raise prices as well, he said. Before this, a Baldur's Gate 3 developer said GTA 6 could prompt a shift to more expensive games if Take-Two decides to price it above $70.

In a series of follow-up posts, Ball shared further key updates, including how GTA 4 was priced at $90 in "real terms," with GTA 5 costing $83.

Ball added, "Your rent is up, movie tickets have doubled, minimum wage, Spotify, Netflix, bus fare, gas, etc. Indeed, nearly all other categories are *up* not just flat in real terms, while games are at record lows."

He went on to say: "Rockstar's costs shouldn't isn't sufficient to set the price, but the argument games should be the only thing to never adjust for inflation (and thus be, in the strictest terms, *worth less* every year) is not healthy either, or a good argument IMO."

Ball was not making a prediction himself that GTA 6 would cost as much as $100, only that there is the belief in the market by some that it could happen. For his money, Ball said he predicts GTA 6 will cost $70.

$70 is the current market rate for new AAA releases, and in fact, it was Take-Two that was among the first to raise prices from $60 to $70 back in 2020. Many are naturally wondering if Take-Two might raise prices again for GTA 6's launch, but it remains to be seen if that will happen. Beyond updating the sticker price for games, video game publishers have found other ways to get more money out of players, including expensive special editions, microtransactions, and battle passes, just to name a few.

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GTA V, for example, has sold more than 205 million copies and brings in lots of money from the microtransactions in GTA Online. Early predictions have said GTA 6 could sell 40 million copies and earn more than $3 billion in revenue during its first year alone.

Ball said GTA 6's launch this year will have a "mixed" impact on total player hours and revenue across the gaming industry because it'll only be available on console (a PC release is expected after the console launch). However, Ball said GTA 6 will "severely" cannibalize total hours and spending that would go to other video games when it launches. For its part, Ubisoft has said GTA 6 is good for the video game industry overall because a huge game like that may help more people turn to gaming.

Some of the other areas that Ball listed off as having potential for growth in 2025 included the further expansion into "non-core" markets, user-generated content, social game services, the Nintendo Switch 2, other new handhelds and devices, AA/AAA mobile gaming, app store regulation, new game genres, generative AI, and advertising.

For the Switch 2, Ball said Nintendo's own games dominate the Switch sales charts because many popular multiplatform games aren't available on the console. When popular multiplatform games do come to Switch, they often have an "enormous performance drop," which could push players to buy a game on a different device instead, Ball said. With the Switch 2, though, the leaked specs suggest the console will be able to "adequately" support most modern games, he said.

In terms of the issues the video game industry faces, Ball said there are numerous contributing factors, including an "exhaustion of decade-plus growth drivers," as well as "competitive and budgetary escalations." Ball added that "acute macroeconomic financial events and epidemics" negatively affected the video game business, as well as "microeconomic platform policy shifts." A number of "would-be growth drivers" have also failed to materialize, he said.

The full report is a fascinating and in-depth look at the video game industry that is well worth a read.

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Avatar image for deanmanwalking2
deanmanwalking2

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Edited By deanmanwalking2

The most corpo thing I've ever heard. I love how he mentioned wages as if they've followed the same inflation as everything else. Sit down, suit.

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Slash_out

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Takes Two makes money by ripping off players on their GTA online, It’s better for them to have more players buy the game at a lower price than less players at a higher price.

They ripped people off for 8.5 billions with GTA online so far and are getting 200 millions a month every month.

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NilsDoen

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I see many uptakes with price hike. Itll take a bit of time for producers and consumers to find a new common ground - but by all means go for it.

Potentially helps companies to do larger bets on less safe games. Lower sales price leads to how all bigger financial bets are safe, and thus as marvel as possible.

As a 40 year old, my preference isnt the same as a kids playing cod or fortnite ie. Games that resonates with me are quite rare, and to have more of them, i woudlnt mind paying a much steeper price.

Imagine a AAA returnal ie

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Avatar image for raiyouhayabuse
RaiyouHayabuse

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The only game worth $100 is Phantasy Star 4.

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Slash_out

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Edited By Slash_out

I am not paying for any game over 69$, ever. Above 59 is already, most of the time, a deal breaker for me.

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quinnd6

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Edited By quinnd6

If games prices go to 100 euros I'll give up buying video games. We're already paying too much for basically everything in Europe anyway. Our currency means we're paying probably more than anywhere in the world for games and consoles. 550 euros for 4 year old tech and will be 5 year old tech later this year. It's ridiculous and it'll be the nail in the coffin for gaming for me. They haven't released any decent single player first person shooters in a very long time now so my favourite genre has been neglected. Call of Duty doesn't count because those games can be finished in a day and then what you're supposed to play what is essentially virtual paintball with strangers around a few maps for hours which I never had any interest in. If they're not careful video games will go through a recession.

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Avatar image for GalvatronType_R
GalvatronType_R

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I am for free market capitalism (within reasonable limits). Companies can charge what they want, customers can choose to buy, that's how it should work. And there are compelling arguments about video game prices not keeping up with inflation.

My issue with a price hike is that extra money absolutely will not mitigate mass layoffs. And none of the extra money will go to workers, the money will b earmarked for executive salaries and bonuses along with dividends for shareholders.

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watchmenotreact

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@GalvatronType_R: free market capitalism doesn't stay within "reasonable limits" by definition, because it leaves those executives "free" to vastly overpay themselves and enrich shareholders at all costs. I can't imagine why any regular person could still be in favor of it—they benefit, you don't

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NilsDoen

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@GalvatronType_R: so you are against free market capitalism

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StickEmUp

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Realistically, all big games absolutely should be $100 or more, if we’re going off of current economics. I’ve said for years that they are the one thing I can think of that hasn’t kept up with inflation, whatsoever. Games were $50-$70 on PS1 and N64. There were even some $100 games on SNES. Sega Genesis games were $40-$50. We have been very, very lucky to not already be paying $120+, regardless of what the complainers say. If games do go up to that $100 mark, it will be fair; however, that’s when I’ll be done buying anything close to launch day. I already almost never buy a game until it’s on sale. I’m not a kid. I don’t need to play stuff as soon as it comes out.

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Jaykray

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@stickemup: The increased pricing would only be fair if workers' salaries were commensurate with the rapidly increasing cost of living.

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mogan

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mogan  Moderator

I can see a game the size of a mainline GTA game being justifiable at $100 launch price. What I can't see is $100 becoming the new standard AAA launch price. GTA games tend to be huge and technically complex games, even compared to other AAA games from the same generation. If GTA6 did cost $100, and that became the new standard launch price for all AAA games, I think a whole lot of other AAA games aren't worth buying until they go on a pretty good sale.

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RaiyouHayabuse

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@mogan: GTA games you run around and cause chaos, maybe with cheat codes. They aren't that deep.

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mogan

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mogan  Moderator

@raiyouhayabuse: I didn't say GTA's gameplay was deep, but the scope of their development is huge.

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al89lan

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Happily pay that. Games 30 years ago cost $80. It's crazy the amount of work, money and time they put into these things. $100 to play a game that will bring you happiness for years and years. Well worth it and well justified.

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NilsDoen

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@al89lan: years and years? :O

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Slash_out

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Edited By Slash_out

@al89lan: Games are now selling 10 times what they sold previously, there is such a thing as eecnomy of scale. Most sales are digital now which means.. No storage cossts, no boxes, no manuals, no transport costs, no retailers fees. Games have tons of dlcs, lots of deluxe versions, season passes and other monetization.

They don’t need to raise prices because they make much more from the games already than they did in the past. That’s how the executives went from salaries and bonuses under 1 millions to dozens and dozens of millions. GTA 5 has made 8.5 billions. 200 millions A MONTH for years. Are they starving for money?

It’s simple everyone .. just don’t buy. I swear I won’t.

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uninspiredcup

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@al89lan: Games 30 years ago were not making the money games are making now. The part you missed out.

In fact GTA5 is the best selling product in media history.

Try not being happy about it and get as much value as possible, as their job is to walk all over you, that's how it works.

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ganondorf77

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Edited By ganondorf77

**** them.

The corporate oligarchy seeks to normalize exorbitant price hikes through a calculated campaign of preemptive propaganda. By initiating the discourse two years in advance, they aim to desensitize the public to the inevitable, conditioning society to accept these outrageous costs as the new norm. This insidious manipulation unfolds before our very eyes, as the public is subtly conditioned to acquiesce to the whims of profiteering elites.

Complicit in this manufactured consent are the mainstream media, whose journalists often act as unwitting mouthpieces for these corporate behemoths. They regurgitate propaganda without critical analysis, further bolstering public acceptance of these seemingly inevitable moves by predatory businesses.

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fenriz275

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Edited By fenriz275

I've never understood why so many people are obsessed with the GTA games. They took a mediocre driving game, a mediocre shooter, and a mediocre adventure game and crammed them together. They're still all just mediocre games you just don't have to load a different game to experience each part of the mediocrity.

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ganondorf77

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@fenriz275: wtf

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Wraith3

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I'm on PC so I'm already waiting (probably) a year or more. No way in hell I'm paying $100 for a game.

Also the amount of game journalists seal clapping this crap should show you that they are going along with anything for access.

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uninspiredcup

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They'll be asking for blood transfusions next.

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HardStomp

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They could average $100 and more between special editions and DLC over years. The second part assumes that people will love this game...

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MoogleStar

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Good for them!

Also won't buy 👎🏻

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Slannmage

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They always say this and then it's on sale straight away in shops and like a quarter of the price 6 months later..... Why physical needs to stay.

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Shalomanoray

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So he makes his argument worse by saying, “well, bus fare, gas, rent, etc is up.” Yeah buddy, but those are necessities, video games are entertainment. Oh movie tickets are up? And how are they doing? Many theatres are in danger of closing down, not a very good example.

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deactivated-67d9b4d176198

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He "hopes" the price point will increase because it will help the industry? Since when has exponentially increasing the price of a product translated in to higher sales numbers?

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keetus

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@just_visiting: I'm not sure you understand the meaning of "exponentially".

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MarimerEst

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Cool.

I'll get it when it's on sale for $20, or given away for free on EGS.

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twelveoucer

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Edited By twelveoucer

I don't know who this Matthew Ball is, but is seems a pretty safe bet this man has lost vast sums of money in the stock market, at the casino, buying-in to scam emails, and more than likely, just walking out of his house towards his car.

Right... the video game industry as a whole... could benefit by rasiing the price of games by over 40%.

How does someone wrtie a 219 page report and come up with that kind of nonsense???

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w0rmy

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I bought eight amazing games during the holiday Steam sale for $85.

There's zero chance I'm paying f$80 for GTA6 or any other game. Games keep getting longer, more complicated, and more buggy. No thanks.

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faithxvoid

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Damn. Home boy wrote hundreds of pages arguing that people aren't buying AAA poo piles because they aren't expensive enough. Next paper is going to be 1000 pages on how Kraven would have been a blockbuster movie if only tickets were $50...

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Rolento25

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I wont be paying it. I haven't bought a game day one in a few years now, I have no issue waiting till its on sale, or sail the high seas.

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jerusaelem

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Jargon jargon jargon, bs bs, jargon jargon jargon, and THAT'S why GTA6 being $100 is a GOOD thing.

This man isn't even speaking English. He's just speaking corposhill nonsense specifically designed to numb your brain into clicking "Install" when the time comes. We're not the reason the games industry, specifically "aaa", is faltering. They are. There isn't enough bs and jargon in your lexicon to convince me that giving your CEO's a fat bonus off the back of a $100 price tag is somehow going to "fix" the industry.

Here's the part you're NOT understanding, Mr. Balls: I don't CARE if the "aaa" industry "rebounds". Hell, I hope it doesn't. I've seen what these asshats do with all of our money, and I'm not impressed with the results. Giving them MORE isn't going to fix or rebound anything. It's just going to make things significantly worse and there's mountains of evidence to back that up. Overindulging greedy, gluttonous pigs does NOT make them LESS hungry. It's also not the customers job to pay extra to fix THEIR past mistakes. Aaa can burn, for all I care. Better games and companies will rise from their ashes, and I'm honestly looking forward to it.

That said, you're making me wait a year for a PC release anyway, so I'll be more than fine with waiting 2 years for your overrated sequel to go on sale before I buy it. Fomo is for chumps.

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CyrezEraser

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Edited By CyrezEraser

im not paying 80-100 dollars for a video game

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EggShenSix

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So let me see if I can get a handle on what this brilliant analyst is telling us:

1) Raise AAA prices to $70, while promising more immersive, more stable, and more creative experiences.

2) Make repetitive, derivative, subpar garbage games, filled with ideological nonsense and written by idiot children in adult bodies.

3) Don't pay those idiot children, or anyone else on staff, enough money to raise a family, buy a house, or do anything other than subsist on city-living prices.

4) Go out of your way to chase fads and attach abusive business practices to every. single. game, like microtransactions, preorder promises that you know won't turn out as planned, and games-as-a-service.

5) Watch the AAA industry crash, talented employees quit, and untalented employees get fired off by the thousands, while indie titles made by dedicated groups with less members than a volleyball team rake in millions by producing tight, thoughtful experiences that respect the players.

6) Blame low pricing for the problem in the AAA industry.

That about right?

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StanE

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I am interested in a GTA game for the first time in over 20 years~! V did nothing for me and the last I played were 2 for the PS2 before V.

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BongLight

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Edited By BongLight

The price won't go up it you dummies don't buy it

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ZeNeo

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It will have the opposite effect. It will just stop people buying new games as often. It will make buying new games inaccessible to many people which shouldn’t be the case.

If Game developers need more profits then micro transactions is the model, but not at the expense of the initial product.

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nintendians

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$100 u.s. dollars??? for sequel that still play similar to the 1st one? ball must be smoking some good $hit.

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Runeweaver

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Perhaps making good games that people want to play would help more.

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