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PlayStation VR Sales Could Hit 1.6 Million Units, Analyst Claims

Sales monitor Screen Digest expects Sony to outperform HTC Vive and Oculus Rift with 64% of VR market.

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Sony's PlayStation VR is forecast to sell some 1.6 million units worldwide before the end of the calendar year, according to research from analyst firm IHS Screen Digest.

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In a note sent to investors, analyst Piers Harding-Rolls claimed that such a sales feat would give Sony and PS4 about 64 percent of the VR market. Part of the reason for PSVR's projected popularity, he said, was due to the PS4 providing a " much bigger addressable market of "ready-to-go" consumers to address than PC-based solutions".

According to Hardin-Rolls' data, PS4 sales are expected to reach 53 million units by the end of 2016, all of which would be an addressable market for PSVR. "In contrast," he added, "17 million consumers will addressable by Oculus Rift and HTC Vive by the end of 2016."

Another key factor is the PlayStation VR price, at $399 in the US and £349 in the UK (but also requiring a $60 standalone PlayStation camera to function).

"When you take into account the total cost of ownership of using a PS4 as a source device, Sony's experience is around half the price of its PC-based competition," Harding-Rolls claimed.

"When Oculus and HTC announced their relative headset pricing, Sony was offered an open goal opportunity to take an early lead in the consumer VR market, which they have taken with aplomb."

PlayStation VR likely to be supply constrained at launch and into 2017, he added. Such supply constraints already appear to be having an effect, with Amazon UK selling out of its PSVR stock within 10 minutes.

One favourable advantage for Sony is its games development network, which includes the likes of Naughty Dog, Sony Santa Monica, and Guerrilla Games. Harding-Rolls said "Sony's existing in-house expertise and third-party relationships means it is well positioned to build a strong body of content for launch of the platform."

Sony says more than 230 developers are on board supporting PlayStation VR, with some 160 projects in development.

Announced PSVR games include Star Wars Battlefront, Eagle Flight, Eve: Valkyrie, Headmaster, Rez Infinite, Wayward Sky, Rigs: Mechanized Combat League, Tumble VR, Until Dawn: Rush of Blood, and PlayStation VR Worlds.

Sony has confirmed the PlayStation VR release date will be in October 2016. It will be available for $400 in North America, €399 in Europe, £349 in the United Kingdom, $549.95 in Australia, and ¥44,980 in Japan.

The base PlayStation VR package does not include Move controllers, which typically retails for around $40/£40 or the PlayStation Camera, which usually costs $50/£40.

Further Reading: All the PSVR News and Reaction

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alldaelong

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l won't be buying any VR until it is wireless.

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LouiXIII

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So PSVR has a chance of outselling the Xbox One by the end of this console generation xD

Just kidding fanboys...well...not unless it really happens lol

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lostn

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Does PS VR support 3D? With only one screen, I'm not sure how you'd be able to do 3D. Without it, it would just be strapping a screen to your face.

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lamanuwa

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Edited By lamanuwa

@lostn: Yes. It does stereoscopic 3D. One eye only sees one half of the screen.

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guyondainternet

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Edited By guyondainternet

So apparently "analyst" can see the future now? Could be 1.6mil could be 16 how do they know?

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Oogazi

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Edited By Oogazi

@guyondainternet: it's their job. that's what being an analyst literally amounts to - using statistical models to predict future outcome.

Of course there will be a margin of error, and that's part of the prediction.

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guyondainternet

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@Oogazi:

And the "analyst" are usually wrong because their profession if based on junk science.

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deactivated-5c0b07b32bf03

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I think that's a pretty safe bet. The thing has already sold out on Amazon UK. The stock literally was gone in hours. Still taking pre-orders, but it'll be the second, third batch at this point. Crazy.

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archav3n

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consoles was always about couch experience. on a big TV. VR don't really align well with consoles. not sure why is it a big fuss

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Kyelo

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@archav3n: Clearly you've never played a racing sim/flying sim/space sim, these games are made for sitting on yer a*s with a VR setup. Literally isn't a better way to play them other than actually driving a Ferrari, flying a Eurofighter or flying to another universe.

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BobaFettHatesU

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@kyelo: Job Simulator may be a stretch for some.

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brn-dn

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Is there literally anyone out there that cares what these "analysts" have to say?

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Oogazi

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@brn-dn: yes.

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BobaFettHatesU

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Edited By BobaFettHatesU

PS4/VR bundles are going to be huge this Christmas. Not only will new gamers go with that, existing Xbox One gamers will eventually want something new too. Microsoft can only update their UI and social activities so much before people want something real in their hands.

This is why Microsoft wanted to open up online play across platforms. They have no more cards to play this generation besides release the rest of there exclusives on PC.

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sladakrobot

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@bobafetthatesu: Really?
I dont thin that PS4/VR bundle will take off.
Lets see...$350 for the console,2xMove controller each $50,a $60 camera...that makes $910!
How much will a bundle cost?
$850?
Is this a price parents will spend for their kids?

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JoshRMeyer

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Edited By JoshRMeyer

@sladakrobot: Have you bothered looking at what an actual move controller cost? $25 each. Cameras price in the mid 40s right now. If someone is going to buy this thing, I'd think they would at least already own a ps4 and probably the camera. So point is, I seriously doubt anyone is going to spend $900 on this all at once, just like I doubt someone will spend $1600 or more on the other 2.

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sladakrobot

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@joshrmeyer: Have you thought about how uselles these things became and that is why they was so reduced in price.
Watch these prices go up.

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BobaFettHatesU

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@sladakrobot: I can't take you seriously, sorry. People buy things at all prices. The world does not revolve around what parents buy 12 year olds.

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sladakrobot

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@bobafetthatesu: The world does revolve what parents buy their 12yo kids on holidays.
You said yourself "cristmass".
Thats exactly the time.
Adult persons,with jobs,family...they will buy it anytime they want.

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BobaFettHatesU

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Edited By BobaFettHatesU

@sladakrobot: What that tells me is, you are not old enough to live on your own or be in a relationship. It's obvious when kids post because they just assume adults can and will buy anything they want, whenever they want. In some cases that is true but if you have a significant other and are planning to dump that much money during the holidays the "other" will always want to make that the Christmas present. And I have bad news for you, when you become an adult, you will not actually want to just eat cookies and hot dogs for dinner.

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sladakrobot

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@bobafetthatesu: Except everything you assume is completely wrong.
I play since the NES era,i have a job,i have an appartment and a car.
No go play in a sandbox with some kids,you might learn something from them...like behaviour.

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OldDadGamer

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@sladakrobot: While you have a point re price, is this even aimed, or even POSSIBLE for kids? I mean, my oldest is 9. I'm not sure that would a) fit on his face or b) I would want him to try.

I thought I read somewhere that they didn't want anyone under 12 using it, but that may be some other rig. Still......

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JoshRMeyer

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@olddadgamer: No one under 12 is supposed to use it for safety reasons. Something about their eyes are fully developed yet. It's gonna break my heart not letting my 4 year old at least try it, but at the same time, I really don't want to ruin her vision for life.

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BobaFettHatesU

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Edited By BobaFettHatesU

@olddadgamer: Strange how everyone suddenly compares sales numbers to kids but the demographics are always clearly in the 18-40 age range for who buys this stuff. If the arguments were to be considered, then everyone on this and all other gaming sites would be 12 or under with no real clue what is going on in the world of technology.

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JoshRMeyer

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@bobafetthatesu: Ever since the first PS, playstation has always catered to a more mature audience, and nintendo focused more on family type stuff... I have no clue why people think ps4 is for 12 year olds. I've honestly never played a lfg destiny raid with anyone that sounded like a kid.

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OldDadGamer

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Edited By OldDadGamer  Moderator

@bobafetthatesu: True, but I think there's a disconnect on that at the holidays. I mean, relying on my completely unscientific eyeballing of stores at the holidays (and talking to my clueless gamer parent friends around same), if people are going to get their kid a thing, they're gonna do it in November/December.

I mean, go to, say, Best Buy and go to gaming 10 months a year. It's older folks looking for themselves. Now go the first week in December. Then it's the person like the one I saw (love this story) buying something for her kid and honestly not believing the X1 was better than the 360 because 360 is more than 1.

It's the problem of holiday bundles. They're plopped out there when the demographics are all skewed.

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BobaFettHatesU

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Edited By BobaFettHatesU

@olddadgamer: Well... if people are going to insist on debating who buys what for who and who doesn't actually buy for themselves, I would have to assume more parents dish out that kind of money for 14 years and older. 15, 16, 17... etc Still plenty of them around. Older kids are easier to justify the expenditures on than younger children that are prone to breaking things and having short attention spans.

I know people in their 20's and 30's that have had their spouses buy them bundles for Christmas so I don't buy into the "only parents buy bundles for kids" bit.

Unless a person is completely single, most couples hold out for big ticket purchases for the holidays because of finances. It's common.

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NoahRoalson

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Considering that most people who purchase consoles are not "core" gamers it will be interesting to see how this thing does. My kinect senses are tingling...

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Kyelo

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@NoahRoalson: Yeah, like the Kinect had 230 developers working on games for it...

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alaannn

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@NoahRoalson: kinect sold alot around 25 million

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NoahRoalson

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@alaannn: It has also gone down in history as a gimmick. With the Xbox one there is hardly a reason to own one as suggested by the fact that they no longer ship with the console (which may make up some of the sale numbers as well).

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alaannn

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@NoahRoalson: the sales number of 25 million was for the 360 not including x1 kinects kinect was a good device for sports dance games etc

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NoahRoalson

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Edited By NoahRoalson

@alaannn: Good point. I just think that between the niche uses and high prices VR headsets will end up being out of sight for the vast majority of gamers.

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alaannn

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@NoahRoalson: niche is going to be a problem ps vr needs pc support maybe even let it work on xbox they should let the headset work like the right tumbstick for first person (thats usually head movment) to get as many games working with it as possable as for price they come down in price over time its just if they picked up enough users tht its still being supported that will be the problem

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cfscorpio

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I did a little research, that number is significantly less than the amount of 360 Kinects sold in its 1st 25 days, so good luck with Sony. lol

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Rolento25

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Can't wait for VR porn!

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yukushi

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I cannot wait but I am also excited about the possibilities of 360 degrees VR porn

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Moonco

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100 billion according to Doctor Evil

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BobaFettHatesU

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@Moonco: Being Evil, he should get a few games on the platform. But since Microsoft is sticking with Hololens... BAZZINGA

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straightcur

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meh, I prefer to play on my 120" screen.

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jshah500

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@straightcur: you're so cool I wish I could be like you

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straightcur

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@jshah500: Aww thanks. I always wanted my very own fanboy

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xxmavr1kxx

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I am interested to see the difference in Quality for them. If Sony's cost Half, will it perform like it also?

Also, in this article it states there is a lot of big Developers like Naughty Dog, and a couple others that could work on PSvr games. Why would they if the expected size is only going to be 1.6 million units? If The PS4 has 54 million out why would you develop a game with oyur biggest Developers to only cater to 5% of the console base?

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JoshRMeyer

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@xxmavr1kxx: 1.6 million in 2 to 3 months.

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Rolento25

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@xxmavr1kxx: the 1.6mil is not the life time count...

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Edited By polishkid99

@xxmavr1kxx: 1.6 by the end of the year, if it comes out in October, that's fairly good I think. They want their best developers so the hardware will have good software at launch, thus boosting sales and trying to grab as much share as possible before VR takes off.

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polishkid99

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For the mass general market, other than the Samsung VR, PSVR is the easiest and most appealing form of VR that they will be able to use. Oculus and HTC will mainly be for enthusiasts. The hardware and software will be better, but PSVR will move more units.

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Troll_Elite

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I'm hoping the PSVR sells as well as they're predicting, but only so that Oculus and HTC will drop the prices of their VR headsets by $100 or so. The only true plug 'n play VR solution I've seen for PC so far is the Sulon Q.

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