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Sebastian: November sales will be up 10 to 15 percent

Third analyst communicates his expectations for the NPD Group's monthly US gaming software take; actual numbers expected tomorrow.

24 Comments

On Monday, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter gave investors his expectations for the industry-tracking NPD Group's November US software sales tally. Pachter predicted that the NPD Group would show that last month's domestic game sales tally would be 12 percent higher than that of November 2005.

Yesterday, Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson weighed in with his own assessment of the month's US retail gaming revenue, saying the figure would actually turn out closer to 16 percent higher than the year before.

Perhaps the third time is the charm, as Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian today offered still another prediction of NPD November US game sales, estimating that the industry's revenue was up between 10 percent and 15 percent for the month. Across all consoles, he expected the top sellers to include Need for Speed Carbon, Madden NFL 07, Call of Duty 3, Guitar Hero 2, WWE SmackDown! vs. RAW 2007, Gears of War, and Final Fantasy XII.

Sebastian also touched on what he expected the PS3 and Wii tie ratios (the number of games sold in relation to systems) to be. Falling roughly in line with specialty retailer GameStop's already reported tie ratios, Sebastian expected between one and two PS3 games sold for each system, with the Wii averaging between two and three games sold for each unit of the hardware.

NPD is expected to release its US software sales figures for the month of November Thursday afternoon.

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comthitnuong

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we shall find out tomorrow then if he is right. i think he predicted pretty close to the right answer though

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BananaUK

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I'll believe it when I see it.

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cjcr_alexandru

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:) Looks like we have better analysts posting on forums.

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Warlypwnage

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Brilliant analysis....he should get a raise...or not...this is like saying the NY knicks are going to play poorly this year. no Sh** sherlock is right.

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jazilla

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Here is my analysis of console and game sales for the Nintendo Wii and PS3: They will be hard to find, because they sold out. This will spur supply and demand issues, thus driving people to spend ridiculous amounts of money to support their childrens', "I want an Oompa Loompa now daddy!" mentality(or their own version of that mentality)instead of excersizing patience and waiting until all of the hoopla dies down. This in turn will create what is known as a sales "boon". If someone wants to hire me as a game market analyst, leave me a message. :D

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KingofTrolls

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WOW Like Seriously CAN I GET PAID TO BE A SO-CALLED ANALYST because we all didn't know that sales for November would be up. Give me a break.

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faizali86

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i wish i was paid to analyze the game market

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mgsninja

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Must be a fun job to analyse the game market.

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Kravyn81

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This is getting ridiculous now with these "analysts." Analysts my ass. All they do is follow each other's predictions and make vague, common sense "predictions."

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yinyang3

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Isn't November always a big month for video game sales?

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theragu40

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Well Jesus. No s**t Sherlock. Two launches in one month...just maybe sales will go up, ya think? I think I'm going to switch my major to "analyst"...seems like all you have to do is make the most pointlessly meaningless and obvious observations and you get paid for it. Sweet!

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RaiKageRyu

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Analyzing...

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Inuyasha666__

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no the wii owners are just suckers........and yeah the ps3 really only had fall of man.........and i guess COD 3 but thats a whole lotta ww ii style action. That and the fact that many ppl simply bought the system to sell it back for a profit. so they were obviously not buying games and if they were it was to bundle with their ebay offer.

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Re_ensurer

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Some good games out there.

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bededog

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I don't get why they analyze something that has already happened. "So lets see, they sold x number a of games this month. That is a increase of 15% from last year!" That has to be the easiest job ever.

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OfficialBed

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neato

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BlueBirdTS

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That's interesting. The Wii game-to-console ratio is higher than the PS3's. You would expect the PS3's to be higher since the PS3 buyers are most likely more hardcore and thus more likely to purchase more games. I guess PS3 buyers just didn't have many good games to choose from, while as Wii owners did. :lol:

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lafigueroa

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If halo 3 comes out next November, Expect next November's sales to double this November's.

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PatchMaster

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I'm pretty sure its common sense that sales will be up. When two consoles are released on a November, sales are gonna be the highest they can get. I could have told you this a year ago.

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DS_fan_atic

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[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

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DS_fan_atic

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I have 7 Wii games right now: The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess Excite truck Rayman: Raving Rabbids Wii Sports Mario Bros. (NES) The Legend of Zelda (NES) Sonic the Hedgehog (GEN)

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TryMe01

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any one could have said that and it would be news on this site. I'm hoping for my thoughts to be on this site next week

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Bathyj

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So Analyst are so insightful they wait til the month is over and then predict how the month went. OMG 2 to 3 games on Wii? Is that cause everyone gets Zelda and Wii sports is in the box? I couldn't think of 3 games on Wii I would buy.

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MatthewNintendo

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I could have predicted that my self, this is obvious stuff

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