State of Play: State of Origin 2007

By: GameSpot AU Staff - Posted on Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Game 1, May 23, 2007
Let's face it--Aussies love their sport, and sport events don't get bigger or badder than the mighty State of Origin series. This yearly rugby league thumpfest is once again set to split the nation--well, at least the part that lives in New South Wales and Queensland. Last year's series win saw the Maroons break the recent dominance of the Blues--will the Queenslanders do it again in 2007? Or, will the Blues bounce back? With the first game in the series set for kick-off on the night of Wednesday, May 23, GameSpot AU's team gazes into our sporting crystal ball to tell you our tips, as well as play a simulated Origin game on Rugby League 2 to see who'll come out on top. Who will win Game 1 in 2007? Read on for our predictions.

For the Maroons

QUEENSLANDER! QUEENSLANDER!!!!!!!

OK, now that we've got the obligatory Billy Moore reference out of the way, let's look at the three reasons why Queensland will win Game 1 of Origin 2007: Johnathan Thurston, Cameron Smith, and Darren Lockyer.

Thurston is on fire, stringing together a few strong seasons to be well and truly on top of his game. Cameron Smith, the current Dally M medallist, remains one of Premiership-favourite Melbourne's best. And Lockyer--providing his ankle injury isn't that serious--is, frankly, the best player in the rugby league world. So that's two champion halves and a superb hooker--the basic ingredients of a winning league side.

Add to that the fact that this year's Maroons are, for the most part, the same side that won the series in 2006. Consistency counts for a lot in this game, especially against a New South Wales side that's blooding some rookies, lacking an established halves pairing, and missing the likes of Andrew Johns and Mark Gasnier. Oh, and did we mention that Game 1 is on at The Cauldron (Suncorp Stadium to you young 'uns)? That fiery crowd cheering on the Queenslanders should be enough to put the fear of Wally into the chardonnay-sipping Cockroaches.

Of course, there are some doubts. Is Lockyer fully fit? Should the selectors have found room for Matt Bowen or Billy Slater? And here's the most worrying part: the Queenslanders are going into Game 1 this year as favourites. Growing up in BrisVegas, I felt that a major part of the mighty Maroons' allure was that they were continually written off as pretenders, yet they kept coming up trumps year after year. And it may just be my memory playing tricks on me, but I seem to recall that every time the Canetoads have been odds-on favourites in recent years, we've ended up being trounced. Maybe the tag of "favourites" just doesn't sit as well as "underdogs" for us?

But that's enough with the pessimism. On form and on paper, Queensland should have Game 1 sewn up.

Ramsay's Prediction: Qld 22-NSW 10

For the Blues

As a proud New South Welshman, and as a bloke who finds the concept of punting toads onto the highway more appealing than I'd like to admit, I'm sure you can guess which team I'm backing on this one.

Even before the ball has left the sand mound, the game is fraught with controversy on both sides of the selection fence. Some big names, including a few proven performers, are going to be missing from the field. The surprising exclusion of Robbie Farah (arguably the best player currently in the league) has ruffled a few feathers, prompting fans to question why such an in-form player would be turned away from the squad. More interestingly, three of the players selected for the New South Wales side come from the Sydney Roosters, the team currently hugging the bottom of the ladder and looking to take out the wooden spoon unless they pull their fingers out.

Willie Mason has been given the nod and will undoubtedly run the ball hard. Expect plenty of big hit-ups from him. Mason is known for his ability to rise to the occasion in big games, particularly when representing state and country. Keep an eye out for him--I reckon he'll have a blinder of a night. As long as he can get plenty of hands-on time with the ball, he'll run it. Expect fireworks.

Jarryd Hayne is stepping up to wear the sacred blue jersey. He'll be playing the wing. I'm expecting big things from him--I'll even go as far as to say that he'll get it over the line a couple of times for the Blues.

Jarrod Mullen has also had the call-up, with the 20-year-old making his Origin debut. While he's obviously dazzling the selectors in the national competition, whether or not he has what it takes to go up against some older and more experienced players remains to be seen.

While NSW has made a few interesting (and perhaps questionable) selections, there's still plenty of talent and experience on deck. I don't doubt it'll be a close one, but come siren time at the end of the night, I think NSW will edge it out.

Chiappini's Prediction: Qld 20-NSW 24

Who do you think will take out Game 1 of the 2007 State of Origin series? Leave us a comment with your predictions below.

What Rugby League 2 says

We dusted off our PlayStation 2 copy of Rugby League 2 for this simulation, with the first item on the agenda being to update both Origin squads to include all the named players for Game 1 of 2007. Since Rugby League 2 is a couple of years old now, this included creating recently arrived players such as Greg Inglis and Jarryd Hayne from scratch. After creating the new players--plus updating the stats on some of the older ones--we ran a 20-minute computer-controlled simulation.

Queensland came out of the blocks firing--just as you'd expect, come the opening minutes of Game 1 this Wednesday. The Maroon pressure was outstanding in the first few minutes, restricting the Blues to their 30m line in three consecutive sets of six. However, poor skills made sure Queensland couldn't capitalize on this early domination. Brent Tate took the risky option of running close to the sideline and was easily bundled out, while Tonie Carroll spilled the ball for an easy New South Wales possession deep in the Queensland half. Two consecutive high tackles by Queenslanders saw New South Wales creep even closer, and it wasn't long before Matt Cooper crossed the line. New South Wales failed to convert, however, leaving the early scoreline at 0-4.

Another basic Queensland error from the following kickoff--this time a knock-on by Steve Price--gifted New South Wales another try when Jarrod Mullen ambled past some lazy Queensland defence. The kick was good, and New South Wales led 0-10.

Luckily, the error count started to tick the Queenslanders' way. A knock-on by the Blues at their 10m line gave Queensland possession, and two tackles later, a rampaging Carl Webb took three defenders over the line for the first Queensland try. The following conversion was good, and the score became 6-10.

New South Wales still had more in the tank, however. Capitalising on yet another Queensland error deep in the defensive half, Nathan Hindmarsh found the try line after concerted Blues pressure. The halftime score was 6-14 in New South Wales' favour.

It looked to be all New South Wales again early in the second half, with the Queenslanders finding it hard to break out of their defensive zone. The Maroons eventually settled and strung together two sets of sixes to put attacking pressure on the Blues. Steve Bell eventually broke through the solid New South Wales line, making the score 10-14 after a missed Queensland conversion.

The game from there ground down into a fierce defensive battle. New South Wales came close to scoring again halfway through the period when Buderus crossed the Queensland line, but he was held up by two defenders. Johnathan Thurston had a shocker, kicking two touch attempts out on the full, while Darren Lockyer had a quiet game by his lofty standards. The full-time whistle eventually came, with New South Wales winning the game 10-14.

Full Time score: Qld 10-NSW 14

Queensland		New South Wales
4	Line Breaks	3
71	Total Tackles	61
28	Missed Tackles	22
3	Handling Errors	3
45%	Possession	55%

Who do you think will take out Game 1 of the 2007 State of Origin series? Leave us a comment with your predictions below.