THE RED LIGHT
It's difficult to call this weekend.
In regards to the Championships, the only loser from Singapore was Mark Webber. His team could still take the Constructors' Championship, but they need to take at least 7 points out of Brawn GP this weekend to do so. A 1-2 finish for the team guarantees this.
For the Driver's Championship, Sebastian Vettel has to outscore Jenson Button by 6 points - no easy feat, but potentially possible. I'll explain later. As for Barrichello, he has to ensure he doesn't lose 5 points to Jenson Button. In fact:
If Jenson Button finishes 4th in Japan and Barrichello does not score, then the Brit will win the World Championship.
That's not as easy as it sounds, however. Red Bull in all theory should be the top dogs this weekend. The track - and weather conditions predicted so far - should play right in to their hands. As we've seen, when it comes to cold/wet conditions the Red Bull cars shine brightest of them all, and not to mention the nature of the circuit is suited to their cars. Therefore barring any strange incidents, it won't be too surprising to see a Red Bull 1-2 this weekend.
However, the person stopping them from doing that is one Mr. Kimi Raikkonen.
He's been on fire since Massa's injury, albeit suffering a blip when the Ferrari just couldn't deliver in Singapore. In Suzuka, Raikkonen is a star - let's not forget he won possibly one of the greatest races in modern history here just 4 years ago. Therein lies the problem: Whilst he's a Suzuka star, one has to question his mentality going into the race knowing now he will not be a Ferrari driver in 2010. With nothing to push for, will he just become the lazy Kimi, or is he going to push harder for another top seat in 2010? This weekend will answer that question for us.
On the contrary, if Kimi was on fire, Alonso is one massive blaze right now. 3rd in Singapore (on merit), and now a confirmed Ferrari driver for next season. If it's not worrying enough for the rest of the field he extracts everything from a car normally, just watch him now. Given the right car next year, there could be no stopping him.
The battle for the title between Button and Barrichello could come to an end this weekend, however I don't see that being the case. Jenson will have to be rather lucky to take the crown this weekend, but since Silverstone that's been the case of his season - when he's not had the chance to be taking the fight, his opponents have also stumbled. Calling Button an unworthy Champion is simply the wrong thing to do - he won 6 out of 7 races in a car Barrichello could've easily done the same with, and when the opportunities came knocking for his title rivals to close the gap, they didn't take it. Vettel's mistake in Singapore was yet another example of that very point being shown.
Glock surprised a lot of people in Singapore, taking the 2nd place that he did. It's as if he'd had a switch flicked on and suddenly became Timo Glock again, and now he needs another strong performance in Japan. I don't quite know what to expect of Toyota this weekend, given all the uncertainties, so I'm gonna have to sit on the fence and say they'll ither be really good, or really bad. Or cause a Trulli Train.
Could we see Force India up the front again? Maybe. Suzuka and Spa are rather similar in characteristics, but the rain is a big factor - Sutil is one of the wet masters, but for some reason is also prone to making frequent errors in the wet - possibly the first wet master/non-master in history. Sunday's race is expected to be dry, but as for qualifying it will be a gamble as to where they start exactly.
Which is one more thing to add - any of you thinking "yes, wet qualifying and dry race, we'll have 2005 all over again!", there are points to be remembered:
- Single-lap qualifying was used in 2005;
- The rain came near the end of the session, before Alonso, Schumacher, Montoya and Raikkonen had hit the circuit;
- With the elimination qualifying in 2009, if the weather was exactly the same as 2005 the backmarkers would already be at the back of the grid.
So all in all, who'll be where? Red Bulls to take it, closely followed by Raikkonen and Alonso, then the Brawns will fit in somewhere.
Oh yeah, McLaren... Spa-Francorchamps. That's all I need say. Unless their last upgrade has sorted that out, in which I'll be eating my words.
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