Nintendo poised to launch their next console in advance of their rivals

Analyst: Nintendo May Trigger Next-Gen War

The current generation of consoles still has three to four more years before newer hardware hits the market, but Nintendo's next may arrive sooner, according to one analyst.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian said in an investor note on Monday, "At this point, we believe the consensus opinion among industry professionals is that the next significant hardware refresh is unlikely to occur before 2011, and more likely in 2012."

But he said Nintendo's next home console could arrive before then. "One possible exception to console timing may be Nintendo, which could opt to upgrade the Wii with faster processing power, DVD capability and/or greater storage."

The original Xbox had roughly a four year run before its successor Xbox 360 came to market. PS2 was out for about six years prior to the release of PS3, and Nintendo's GameCube had a five year run prior to Wii's launch.

Sebastian also noted that Microsoft recently began production of a 65nm-based CPU for Xbox 360, and is also working on cutting costs in other areas related to Xbox 360 hardware.

The company is expected to cut the retail price of Xbox 360 later this year.

Commenting on the European market following last week's Leipzig Games Convention, Sebastian also noted Sony's heavy PS3 presence at the show. But he said the console is still not yet priced for true mass market penetration.

"While Sony is clearly not standing still, and is demonstrating some better momentum in North America, we do not believe the PS3 is likely to gain significant market share until hardware prices reach mass market levels," he said.

Source: Edge

Is there any solid reasoning behind this? Why would Nintendo want to hamper the Wii's momentum given its robust sales?

upgrading the wii is a stupid maneuver. they need a completely new iteration. from what this sounds like, it is just a bump up on the wii, what is the point in that? the wii is a gamecube, so what will this be, an upgrade to an xbox? they dont need more storage, they need to just allow people to use a usb hard drive. faster processing? what is the point? that would end up segregating the user base.

if they are talking about the next iteration of nintendo console that is one thing, but this makes it sound like its just an upgraded wii, which is a poor path to take. the wii showed its weakness on day one, looking like a last gen console out the gate. we know nintendo wont put in top notch hardware again, so this one would be weak out the gate as well. they are better off waiting until just before MS and Sony launch, and bringing out a more powerful, but weaker than the other two system that wont be a dinosaur in its first quarter.

upgrading the wii is a stupid maneuver. they need a completely new iteration. from what this sounds like, it is just a bump up on the wii, what is the point in that? the wii is a gamecube, so what will this be, an upgrade to an xbox? they dont need more storage, they need to just allow people to use a usb hard drive. faster processing? what is the point? that would end up segregating the user base.

if they are talking about the next iteration of nintendo console that is one thing, but this makes it sound like its just an upgraded wii, which is a poor path to take. the wii showed its weakness on day one, looking like a last gen console out the gate. we know nintendo wont put in top notch hardware again, so this one would be weak out the gate as well. they are better off waiting until just before MS and Sony launch, and bringing out a more powerful, but weaker than the other two system that wont be a dinosaur in its first quarter.

OneWingedAngeI

It really doesn't matter when they release their next console, Nintendo have a very serious game problem - they basically have very few games that are really worth the price tag. Each console has it's traditional series and that's all well and good but they shoudn't be the only thing the console has going for it, the Wii is plagued by a deep lack of innovation seeing as all it's "good" games involve a certain italian plumber in some shape or form and the rest is a sea of godawful party/sport games.

Microsoft and Sony are both pushing new games this generation alongside their traditional series and it's good for the industry as a whole to have all this creativity floating about, sometimes these games are terrible but looking at games like Bioshock you can't say there haven't been some genuinely amazing ones either and the Wii is left out in the cold when the rest of the market is enjoying consistently high-quality games. It's sad.

That's great news, now we get more suckage at the beginning of the next gen.

360 started out meh, and is doing alright. The PS3 started out meh and is now doing alright. Wii started out meh and is still that way.

I really don't see this happening. Every single decision Nintendo has made this gen has been based on maximizing their return on as little investment as possible: the recycled hardware, SDK's, even games. This would be a very drastic departure from that strategy.

But of course as well all know very well by now...analysts are just dudes with half-baked predictions.

Suuuuuure they are.

Let me ask a question real quick: Why in the HELL would they do that? They are selling systems as fast as they can make them, and they profit on every one sold. Why would Nintendo break a winning (not just winning, but DOMINATING) formula to follow the same model that the other companies went with -- a model that, incidentally, they'll probably never net a profit on?

This analyst has smoked too much dope.

Yeah. Not happening. Nintendo hasn't even met demand for the damin thing yet, and it's blowing both Sony and MS out of the water in hardware sales month in and month out.

Unless Ken Kutaragi becomes the new Nintendo CEO.

*sigh* nintendo is planning on ditching its customers sooner than ever. i was really disappointed in how nintendo completely ignored its gcn customers for the last year of its lifecycle. LoG-Sacrament

Yeah, because the situation with the Wii is JUST like the situation was with the Gamecube.

Sebastian is an idiot.

If it were to Nintendo, they would never release another console ever again.

Wow.This is kind of like the iPhone.

Make a great product with glitches,then make a new version of the same product with more memory that it should of had in the first place.

Why destory the original?The last thing we'd want is Nintendo going iPhone on us.

[QUOTE="LoG-Sacrament"]*sigh* nintendo is planning on ditching its customers sooner than ever. i was really disappointed in how nintendo completely ignored its gcn customers for the last year of its lifecycle. Shame-usBlackley

Yeah, because the situation with the Wii is JUST like the situation was with the Gamecube.

and if this turns out to be true, nintendo is planning on doing a disservice to its customers JUST like with the gamecube. obviously its one person's speculation, but that doesnt stop me from being just a little distrustful of nintendo after they burned me last gen.

Ah, "Analyst says".

You had me worried for a fraction of a second there.

Honestly, though, Nintendo could release an upgraded Wii (think GBASP, or DS Lite) which wouldn't be a new console (it would play the same games, and have the same memory cards and controllers) but have some sort of new feature.

It seems unlikely, though.

i doubt they'll launch it that soon, it's still impossible to find wii's.blacksiteninja

I know what you mean; especially when the other systems cost much more than the Wii and are more designed for HDTV; which many people don't have yet.

Most people on these boards have a better idea than these analyst do on the where and how and why.

As a lot of people have already said there is no logic to Nintendo wanting to jump the gun on Microsoft or Sony. The only thing I do see happening is a redesign of the current system improving some of it's inherant flaws. Memory or DVD playback come to mind (or god forbid an even smaller redesign), we've seen this happen with the PSP, DS and PSOne and PSTwo, but considering Momentum hasn't even slowed in terms of demand I don't see this happening anytime soon.

Even Sony isn't going to dump the PS3 since they are fighting hard to get it to float and doing pretty well, and Microsoft is in much too strong a position to even be thinking of replacing it's console just yet.

The situation I see here is Nintendo is attempting to take a page out of Sony's playbook and support two consoles before any other manufacturer could in the next generation. It could work and it doesn't seem that the next console from Nintendo would just be an ungrade but instead a complete new re-emergence of the Gamecube utilizing the DVD format. And still by all indication, there's nothing stopping Nintendo from bringing the Blu-ray format in their new SKU. My thinking is Nintendo is considering making a more hardcore console and continue the support of the Wii. It would be a bold step for Nintendo and they obviously have the money and technology to pull it off. If they can create a console to compete with the current gen consoles of Sony and Microsoft, they would lock up the spectrum and pretty much become untouchable depending on the success of the new console. They'd have a lock on casual gaming consoles, hard core consoles, and handheld consoles. They would in essence do what Sony wants to do on one level with the PS3 and PSP and also on the other level what Microsoft is doing with the Premium system and the Arcade console.

I say, good thinking Nintendo; they are giving consumers what they want and doing it in a way that no other has attempted yet, or at least if they have, it's only been halfway thought through.

The situation I see here is Nintendo is attempting to take a page out of Sony's playbook and support two consoles before any other manufacturer could in the next generation. It could work and it doesn't seem that the next console from Nintendo would just be an ungrade but instead a complete new re-emergence of the Gamecube utilizing the DVD format. And still by all indication, there's nothing stopping Nintendo from bringing the Blu-ray format in their new SKU. My thinking is Nintendo is considering making a more hardcore console and continue the support of the Wii. It would be a bold step for Nintendo and they obviously have the money and technology to pull it off. If they can create a console to compete with the current gen consoles of Sony and Microsoft, they would lock up the spectrum and pretty much become untouchable depending on the success of the new console. They'd have a lock on casual gaming consoles, hard core consoles, and handheld consoles. They would in essence do what Sony wants to do on one level with the PS3 and PSP and also on the other level what Microsoft is doing with the Premium system and the Arcade console.

I say, good thinking Nintendo; they are giving consumers what they want and doing it in a way that no other has attempted yet, or at least if they have, it's only been halfway thought through.

maxpsp

I very strongly doubt it.

Nintendo won't go out of their way to minimize (or even hurt) their monetary returns solely for the sake of appeasing the hardcore fanbase. Competing in the arms race didn't do them any favors over the last 2 generations and it certainly won't in this gen or the next. Even if that were to be a possibility, investing in new tech would inevitably hike both the costs of their new SKU and software development, placing both Sony and MS at an advantage. In addition, such a move would only serve as contradictory to their Blue Ocean strategy.