The downfall of the video game industry....again

Hello all,

I am actually looking to get an opinion on something I predect will be happening in the next few years. I have predicted some time ago that the video game industrymay very well witness a very sharp downswing, not unlike the video game crash of the 80's. I also just read an article on tihs very site stating that there may be a financial downswing due to a lack of big name titles to keep the industry afloat. But this is not the reason i predict this eventual downfall. What is it then, u ask? Before I answer that, I would like to take you back in time, some of you may have been around for this, and some of you have never heard of this. I wanna take you back to when Atari was king, and there wasprobably about 20 different console out, each pumping out a plethora of games every month. This was the height of the first gaming evolution, during the 70's. Then we hit a snag, we reached a point where companies were putting out more shoddy product than good product. People were getting bombarded with titles that were fit for only door stops or to be buried in a landfill, then crushed by cement. As quickly as people fancied up to the gaming industry, they just as quickly dropped the industry, and it fell, very promptly, on it face. This ended in the early 80's. But from the ashes arose a new company, one that would usher video games into homes once again. Welcome Nintendo, and thank you for rejuvenating the industry. Had the gaming industry learned from its mistakes? It sure had. Nintendo had built some very intersting features into their system, which prevented any ol joe to create software without licensing. This did have its downfalls, as it also stiffled some very good games from ever or barely seeing the light of day, and for companies that did get the licensing, they were forced to adhere to nintendos very strict code of conduct in regards to software development. But still this is what helped rejuvenate the industry and to allow new upstarts to rise up, the likes of Sega, Microsoft, and Sony to name the most popular ones(although there was also a share of smaller companies that did not even reach sales in their entire cycle that would match one month of sales for Microsoft or Sony or Nintendo). So we have lived in the golden age of gaming for about 20yrs. And how we have come full circle.....

Now to answer my question asked above....what will bring the end of gaming as we know it? The EXACT same thing as the first time around. I dont think it will be the lack of high quality games, but the over abundance of low quality, bargain basement games, games that are worthy of only,well, being dumped into a landfill.And here is where the full circle comes in, I put majorith of the blame on none other than Nintendo. Now, before you blast me or label me a nintendo hater or a fanboy, understand that I also blame Microsoft and Sony. I will also tell you, as would anyone else who knows me, I am the hard core of the hardcore, I have been playing videogames longer than alot of you have been around in this world, and I own all current and last gen handheld and systems,and between my wii, ps3 and x360, I owe close to 150 games. Why mention this? So you understand that I am bringing experience to the table. I am unbiased, and before you go and start to flame me, research what I have been talking about. If I am wrong, tell me I am, but also state how I am wrong.

Back to the point at hand. While Microsoft and Sony have more than had there share of duds, they have also had a large amount of gems, halo 3 , gears, r6v2, bioshock, forza, prey, uncharted, heavenly sword, etc, etc. but what about the wii?Compare their high profile titles, SSBB, Zelda, No more heroes, wii sports, to their duds....ummm.....there is just waaaay too many to list, and I dont even know where to start. There has been MANY games with a below 5. rating, and Nintendo, and more specifically 3rd party developers, are consistantly putting out these horrible titles. Here is another thing that is past versus present, the old developers had started to bring games to the masses, instead of a niche crowd. And as quickly as these masses will pick up these systems, they will drop them as soon as they feel bombarded. Sound familiar? nintendos goal was to bring games to the masses and now they have many titles out of which most are crap. I went to my local game rental store, and the game wall for the wii was much larger than the ones for the PS3 and the X360, yet the had 1. Less games that are worthy of being played let alone being on display. 2.The best games, of which there are few were rented, but a vast majority were still on shelf, some of which dont look like they were ever rented. Some will deny this, stating that game sales are at a record high, but why aredevelopers downsizing, closing studios, and are being purchased or merged with other companies? While I think there is a few years left before my prediction will come to pass, I do think that by the end of this game cycle, and maybe a little before, we can see another industry crash. But will we be prepared for this?

Discuss

Nexus

"Living with the motto an eye for an eye will only make the world blind"

That is true to an extent, but the game companies are onlys survive for so long on the coat tails of the few high value games it releases in the year, which could lead to the "financial" downswing that the article mentions. But us, as consumers, can only take so much poor software being handed to us. Lets also mention that the biggest games are sequels, there is only so many times you an play a game. While I do agree with you, this is also why I predicted that we will not see this for a few years.I do think that, based on the current level of game quality coming out, we will see this downswingover acoupleof years. A vast majority of the top games have been sequels, but did anyone notice how the sequels cannot compare to the first?It seems that as much as they keep pumping these out, there visual quality has gone up, but there actually gameplay factor has dropped down in quality. IF this trend continues, we are only heading to the inevitable.

***Also, did any one noticied how games these days are premade to have sequels? This is another thing, game sequels in the past were only made when the original was a large success, and it was a viableoption to make a sequel. Now games are given cliffhangers to mak you want to buy the sequel, and subsequent sequels afterwards. Jst wanted to note that**

How many junk movies are made every year? Making movies is an expensive business. Risky to make garbage ones, wouldn't you think? Every year there are straight to DVD releases of films that never should have been given the green light in the first place.

How about TV. What proportion of cable TV is utter and absolute fluff? There's quite a lot of it. But if you know anything about TV or movies you can be a pretty good judge of what's what.

Actually, thats a perfect example. Tv shows barely make it to their first season these days, some dont even make it past a few episodes. But tv is a tricky business.

The big one is the movies. With the exception of last year, where we had a huge amount of high profile titles released, the industry was able to just BREAK EVEN. Alot of people have already forgotten, but the 3 yr prior to last(2004, 05, 06) saw hollywood scramble to try to make ends meet, as they were releasing high profile titles, with high profile, but with low quality, and the industry was, and still is dying. Why? no one will go to see a crappy picture, and they wont pay for a crappy game. This year, where we are quickly approaching May and mid yr, hollywood has only had 2 WEEKS were it surpassed last year. And one week was last, where they had Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Forbidden Kingdom, and 88 mins released. 3 HIGH PROFILE TITLES, and they barely surpassed last yr.(13%) And, as I mentioned, ast year they were only able to barely break even, turning an overall small profit when factoring in losses vs revenue. The thing is, your right, people do know the difference between crap and greatness, and thats what caused the crash to begin with. Companies spend money to make these games, and if they dont turn profit, well, i dont need to mention what would happen.

If you want, you can reference this link below about the movies.

http://www.imdb.com/news/sb/2008-04-21 Its the first article, although if you search through IMDB,and the net, you will find that hollywood, is worried, they have alot riding on this summer.....

True, true, we are definitely not the same industry we were some 20 yrs ago, but I am noticing alot of the same trends being repeated. The problem I also see, is that this is the only media not fully "accepted" by the world. Its a constant scapegoat for politicians and parents alike, and as such it has alot more weighted against it. I actually loved the idea of thewii bringing gaming to the everyman and everywoman, but if they keep putting out these titles, the "mainstream" people we have aquired will just fall away like flies, amd we could potentially return to a niche product. And alot ofgamers I have talked to feel that games are becoming stale(although some also disagree with my crash theory), and let face it, it is. How many sim racers, fps, third person or rpgs can we play that are all almost identical. gran turismo=forza, gears=dark sector( i know ds is not nearly as good, but so many of the mechanics are ripped of gears), juiced=nfs, and there is a large portion of games that i have played, even just recently, that feel all too familiar, and then there is the sequels. If the game industry doesnot crash as I "predicted", they are going to have to go through a major restructuring if they are to keep putting out quality for us, not just quantity.

As for hollywood not crashing, that is true. Its a little known fact that hollywood has been close to "bankruptcy" for some time now. What has kept them up? Investors. Lots of them(ever notice how the executive producers and producers list has grown to sometimes list 10-12 names on top of the studios?) But these investors are starting to pull out. That is why these is a sudden influx of low or moderately budgeted movies appearing. And they are still bombing, but at least the companies are staying afloat, at least for the time being. I dont know if the gaming industry will follow suite or not? But only time will tell.....

Luckily, more and more gamers, both casual and hardcore, are turning to gaming websites and magazines are turning to websites and magazines to help them sift through the ocean of crap to find the gems. Sure, 90% of games are crap, but even the most geeky hardcore gamer has trouble keeping up with all the good games there are to play.

Anyhow, I do agree that the wii will eventually fizzle out since it doesn't have the horsepower to play the big name games, but the 360 and ps3 will keep going strong.

Definitely, this is some very valid points, we ae a well informed group of people, and the wealth of info at our fingertips is outstanding, but I want to give 1 example of something....

I did some quick checking. According to gamerankings, there is approximately 249games for the wii in North America,and only 38 of those had a rating over 7.5(I know, I have too much time on my hands, and I do right now)

Now being the knowledgable people we are, we would not buy these games because when you open the case, you get a whiff of the crap that has been etched into the disc LOL, anywayz, that leaves a whopping 211 games that are crappy titles. There is 2 possible scenarios to this.

1.We, being the knowledgable people we are, do not buy these titles. The game developers lose alot of money and, eventually, go bankrupt.(after a few years, hence my long term prediction)

2.People buy these games blindly in hopes of them being good titles. Developers make money, and figure, hey since we made this low budget title and people bought it, lets make more. But eventually, people will say, wait, Im spending all this money, and the crap keeps coming, let me take my money elsewere.(this is, in my opinion, what is happening right now)

But, as stated, it is only my opinion, and trust me, the last thing I want is a downswing or crash, I have no idea what i would do with my time :)

Nexus, yes I agree that the developers who are consistently making crappy games will go bankrupt, but that same can't be said for those who are consistently putting out good titles. It's survival of the fittest. Just because the trash gets taken out doesn't mean the good stuff gets thrown out with it.

Why people assume that quality of video games is the sole reason for the crash of the early 1980s? What about competiton from personal computers and PC gaming? After all, the 1980s was the decade when personal computers became affordable and more mainstream.

I personally think that trying to predict the third video game crash (the crash of the early 1980s was actually the second; the first occured around 1977, but is not well-known), is trying to predict when the success of the Wii will eventually wear off. We do not know when it will happen.

Interesting reading your thread nexus...you do bring up some valid points.

I think that the video games industry is still young, heck its only probably 35 years old and it already experienced a crash early. Games have been labeled as the realm of the geek, then Nintendo as you said tried to bring it to the masses in which it succeded. Why do you think Nintendo had to 'appeal to the masses again' when they thought of the Wii ?

Its becaause games are still seen to an extent to be a geek thing, atleast on the PC. Nintendo innovated a new control system which, if used correctly, can lead to some awesome gameplay experience.Consoles of today represent Nintendo's efforts of the 80s in a sense. Easy pick up and play. People are now more exposed to games than before and they are better informed. Granted that there are crap games made but there are gems also...The ratio of crap games to good/great games isnt good perhaps but it takes a LOT of effort and money to create these gems.

How many amazing movies do you come across every year in hollywood ? around 10 say ? 80% of the movies are crap imo and we can compare it to the games industry...1 good movie per month lets say on average. It also depends on the audiences preferences for a particular genre. A science fiction fan will be sad/angry about not having a quality sci-fi flick to see in a year in the same way as a FPS fan will complain about old-wine-in-a-new -bottle shooter. It depends on what 'quality' means to different people....I have seen people like Gears of War and others (who are FPS fans) hate it.

Innovation is risky...Trying to be 'different' amongst an established market/genre is tricky and has a lot of sacrifices for the developer. In today's world, money talks so you do have to take into account that factor. I believe there will be independent studios established (they already are) by new 20 year olds who have grown up on games and some of them will surely be just as frustrated/concerned with the amount of crappy/average games as you are...I am one of them :)...There are loads of game engines, free and licensed that are available today for you which today's generation can take advantage of in ushering a new era of innovation.

But it takes time,energy,skill,money and sometimes luck to develop that gem of a game which breaks new ground or even invents a new genre...Take a look at Max Payne...It took Remedy almost 5 years to develop the game ! 5 YEARS !!! Its high even by today's standard development time average of 18 months. They will cash in because they have to in order to survive, while in the meantime, they can start working on their next gem.

My point is that there always will be 80% crap and 20% quality stuff out there in any form of entertainemt...The casual market is targeted more today than before but at the same time, the hardcore market is equally taken care of..Its a great time to play and develop games for a generally hungry and knowledgeable audience which in turn provides an increasingly difficult challenge for the developers. But I think the future is bright because the future is in our hands...if we think games are starting to degrade, its time we got up and innovate :)

Easier said than done ofcourse ;)

Your arguments as to why gaming will crash have existed since the original Nintendo was released. You're just another doomsayer with a new spin on how the Wii is/will ruin gaming.

I did some quick checking. According to gamerankings, there is approximately 249games for the wii in North America,and only 38 of those had a rating over 7.5nexusbeyond

How is this much different than the crap to good ratio for any other console? If you look at the PS2 game ratings there are pages and pages of turds. I'd estimate between 60-70% of the PS2 games reviewed by GS were under 7.5. Given the volume of titles released on the PS2, there's probably another 5-10% of turd that GS never reviewed.

Also gaming companies have been bought out, down-sized, and merged for decades. Were you doomsaying when Microsoft bought Bungie? What about when Black Isle Studios, Troika, or any other developer closed? "Oh noes! Companies being bought and merged is the end! Companies closing is the end!"

You don't even acknowledge the fact that this generation of consoles makes it much easier for the "little guy" to get his product onto consoles, which allows developers to remain small to medium size and still be viable. Devs can get their games on the 360, PS3, and or Wii as downloadable games. The resources used (and thus risk) for developing these games is less and; while games aren't sold for nearly as much, the devs can rake in the money if they produce a good title.

Games that score under 7.5 are "bad"? I thought it is considered "good" according to GameSpot's criteria. I think that a really bad game scores under 5.0.

By the way, the number of "bad" games as around 80% is just too high. Only a minority of that number is truly "bad."

Hello all,

I posted this thread a loooooooooooooooooong time ago, and just wanted to get some impressions, six months laters(approximately :)

With the recent holidays season, we have had more high profile titles than ever before, and with that, more flops. Games like Gears 2 and resistance 2 come out with some amazing appeal, but at the same time, games like NFS underground come out and bring down the entire value of gaming. Even then, the best games have all been sequels for the most part, with the exception of a fee titles( like Dead space), so there is very little originality. We have had numerous closures and mergers and talks of gaming companies, even the huge conglomerates, laying off talented developers to save costs, and their asses. What was once the biggest companies, are now stumbling to stay afloat. What will the future hold for our gaming industry. I am actually in a situation where I may retract my previous statement that the industry will CRASH intirely, but there will be some drastic changes, and who knows what willhappen. Any thoughts?