The NPD data is not wholely accurate.

what people need to understand about the NPD (national purchase diary) is that it only considers 60% of the retailers who sell consoles and software to the buying public. there are many large retailers who dont report their sales to any company much less the NPD, they include

Wal-mart
K-Mart
Costco
Sams
and these are the ones i know about.

and in the abscence of that 40% of data, the NPD then has to make an estimate.....which means they are essentially,sophisticatedly guessing almost half of the retail data that they are reporting.

now im not trying to undermine the NPD and their knowledge on market trends....but i will say that their is far more wiggle room in their accuracy than people on these forums seem to think.

the reality is anyone who has an agenda to hate on another cosnole or company will find any numbers they want to justify tearing them apart. so this could very well be a moot point on my part.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!"  just seems so silly

"Analysts were also skeptical, with some believing that the Wii sold more than NPD reported. "I don't understand how US Wii sell-through could be 1.1 million cumulatively, with Nintendo saying that they shipped half of their 4 million here and zero inventory on retail shelves at year end," said Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter. "Where are the other 900,000 units? I assume 200,000 are in transit, but this number makes no sense to me at all."

also

"Many analysts are saying that the Wii sold more than what NPD has stated. Perrin Kaplan herself says that the NPD doesn't count mom and pop stores, and that she can confirm that Nintendo definitely shipped more than the figure from the NPD. As we all know, the Wii was a total sellout (according to Nintendo), making for a lot of Wiis that weren't accounted for by the NPD."

the NPD is far from accurate

Possibly. That means the gap between the PS3 and X360 may very well be even larger than we thought.MarcusAntonius

you could be 100% correct. thats kinda my point is that....we know but we dont know. we have enough information to assume or guess, but not enough information to know for sure or for fact

Shouldn't this be in the actual NPD thread?gaminggeek

i just didnt want to get the two points confused. this a general thread about the NPD and how their numbers work, not a "lets argue the PS3 numbers" thread.

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

flood

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make... 

Why shoot the messenger?  I'm not thrilled by the latest NPD numbers, but said numbers are the best snapshot we (the general public) have of US game sales and I've never seen anything to indicate that the data is unrepresentative or being slanted to favor one company or another. 

Also, I'm sure the PS3 will be around in three years, but its far from 'fine'.  Its pricier than the X360 and despite the price, the best looking console game calls the X360 home (and the X360 plays host to a broader library of games) so the PS3's chances of outselling the X360 in the forseeable future are nonexistent, but I do think Sony can do more to narrow the gap.  Whereas MS religiously posted content during the last E3, the Thursday following Sony gamer's day no new footage popped up on Sony's network (just downloadable HD versions of Rampart and Rampage).  Motorstorm and Resistance, the PS3's two big online games, aren't a part of Sony's network and thus have separate friends lists.  Of course, a big gap narrower would be a price cut.

[QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

Mantorok

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make... 

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

[QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

flood

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make...

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

The PS3 is in trouble, for now, get over it, you are preaching to a crowd of people who are fully aware of how things can change in the next few years, however, now is not the time to try and sugar-coat the situation, because unless Sony starts acting nothing will change.

well in the sense that we simply dont know......

if we cant track what consoles were sold through the largest retailer in the world, then what do we really know? not to mention all the small games shops who the NPD dont even poll , since they dont show up on the retail radar. there are 11 independant gamestores in st louis alone, all who sold PS3's, 360's and Wii's...and if they werent counted....where does that put the NPD numbers? i realize 11 stores isnt alot, but it does add up globally.

my point is, the NPD numbers may not be the definitive prediction.

Damage control?

Can I say that here?

[QUOTE="flood"][QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

Mantorok

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make...

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

The PS3 is in trouble, for now, get over it, you are preaching to a crowd of people who are fully aware of how things can change in the next few years, however, now is not the time to try and sugar-coat the situation, because unless Sony starts acting nothing will change.

well actually EGM would like to argue that point. in a recent article they published, they stated that the PS3 has actually sold through to date, more units that the original PS2 did in the same time span.

i dont have a link right now, as i am at work...but when i get home i will scan the part of the article i am referring to to show you. so i dont get accused of lying or being misinformed.

Damage control?

Can I say that here?

jedigemini

no ...not really.

now if you had any actual information to back up what im saying isnt factual and is indeed damage control...then i wouldnt have any issues ....but just tossing in your "statement" is just being argumentative.

please add to the discussion with substantive posts.

Motorstorm and Resistance, the PS3's two big online games, aren't a part of Sony's network and thus have separate friends lists. Of course, a big gap narrower would be a price cut.

CarnageHeart

[QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"][QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

flood

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make...

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

The PS3 is in trouble, for now, get over it, you are preaching to a crowd of people who are fully aware of how things can change in the next few years, however, now is not the time to try and sugar-coat the situation, because unless Sony starts acting nothing will change.

well actually EGM would like to argue that point. in a recent article they published, they stated that the PS3 has actually sold through to date, more units that the original PS2 did in the same time span.

i dont have a link right now, as i am at work...but when i get home i will scan the part of the article i am referring to to show you. so i dont get accused of lying or being misinformed.

Yeah... that might have something to do with it.  

[QUOTE="gaminggeek"]Shouldn't this be in the actual NPD thread?flood

i just didnt want to get the two points confused. this a general thread about the NPD and how their numbers work, not a "lets argue the PS3 numbers" thread.

I think that inevitibly that's what everyone will end up discussing anyway, afterall it was the news and the reaction that prompted you to post this thread. (Not saying or meaning that in a bad way, it's just the news is so fresh in peoples minds and most already know how NPD works)

But it's a waffling, indistinct road to go down, saying we don't know what sold here and there in shops that aren't covered. NPD shows trends and the trends will likely be reflected in the retailers it doesn't cover, unless we assume that somehow other stores are selling more or less of one product over the other? And then try to speculate on the whys and hows.

We also have japanese sales to reflect on Media Create numbers and we see similar patterns to the worldwide trends too.

I agree the PS3 will be just fine but to be fair unless there is a sigificant difference for one of the retailers not pooled any error is going to carry across all consoles.

All in all it's probably a very good representation of actual sales.

[QUOTE="CarnageHeart"]

Motorstorm and Resistance, the PS3's two big online games, aren't a part of Sony's network and thus have separate friends lists. Of course, a big gap narrower would be a price cut.

dohhyulittle

Really?  Odd.  I've raced a few times online in Motorstorm (I'm trying to wait for the bug fix/rankings erasure) but my 'players met' list which I assumed was based off of people one brushed against in-game, doesn't reflect those games.  Anyway, I stand corrected.

You'll never see NPD topics in the PC forums because they know how inaccurate they can be, especially to the PC crowd... Not only does NPD miss data from those large retailers, they also don't count digital distribution and some online retailers, that's why every month for the last bunch of years, NPD has been giving the notion that PC  Gaming IS DYING!

but coming into general games discussion and pointing out the inaccuracies of NPD figures amounts to going into a catholic church and telling priest jokes... you're not going to get a warm welcome here

You'll never see NPD topics in the PC forums because they know how inaccurate they can be, especially to the PC crowd... Not only does NPD miss data from those large retailers, they also don't count digital distribution and some online retailers, that's why every month for the last bunch of years, NPD has been giving the notion that PC  Gaming IS DYING!

but coming into general games discussion and pointing out the inaccuracies of NPD figures amounts to going into a catholic church and telling priest jokes... you're not going to get a warm welcome here.smerlus

I agree that NPD numbers are inaccurate and almost irrelevant when it comes to PC gaming, but it paints a pretty fair picture on the console side of the industry. It's better than the situation here in Europe where it's basically impossible to even get reasonable estimates, and we can only depend on publishers' own numbers.

Agreed. NPD numbers are not to be trusted since they are highly inaccurate. And what's more evident is that PSP only managed to sell 3k more in the month that they had a pricedrop? Sorry NPD, there's just no way that could have happened. The surge in PSP sales due to pricedrop must be way, way more than that.

PS3 is doing an excellent job. No they're not in any trouble nor should Sony be concerned at all. Let's just all wait until 2012, then you'll all see that all these numbers are jibbish. Just you wait.

Well in the World of console gaming only Nintendo releases their systems sold numbers. Whereas MS and Sony try to make you think they've sold more then they have by releasing their shipped numbers. There is a big difference between how many consoles you've sold and how many consoles you've shipped to retailers from your manufacturing facility.

Agreed. NPD numbers are not to be trusted since they are highly inaccurate. And what's more evident is that PSP only managed to sell 3k more in the month that they had a pricedrop? Sorry NPD, there's just no way that could have happened. The surge in PSP sales due to pricedrop must be way, way more than that.

PS3 is doing an excellent job. No they're not in any trouble nor should Sony be concerned at all. Let's just all wait until 2012, then you'll all see that all these numbers are jibbish. Just you wait.

banjobear_basic

Seriously the level of denial in this thread is just plain embarassing to watch.

[QUOTE="banjobear_basic"]

Agreed. NPD numbers are not to be trusted since they are highly inaccurate. And what's more evident is that PSP only managed to sell 3k more in the month that they had a pricedrop? Sorry NPD, there's just no way that could have happened. The surge in PSP sales due to pricedrop must be way, way more than that.

PS3 is doing an excellent job. No they're not in any trouble nor should Sony be concerned at all. Let's just all wait until 2012, then you'll all see that all these numbers are jibbish. Just you wait.

jedigemini

Seriously the level of denial in this thread is just plain embarassing to watch.

Anyways, it's well-known that NPD doesn't cover everything, and Wal-Mart is such a huge seller, especially in rural areas (where they could be the only provider of game stuff) that not having them is a major thing. However, the impression that I always got was that sales trends at Wal-Mart weren't really that different than the NPD numbers... with a few exceptions, it's going to reflect the latest data.

Still, it doesn't change the fact that it is a good and well-respected tool. Companies like to brag about shipping numbers, which says nothing about people who actually have the machines in their houses. NPD helps keep the big 3 in check, since this data, albiet incomplete, actually means something. 

[QUOTE="jedigemini"][QUOTE="banjobear_basic"]

Agreed. NPD numbers are not to be trusted since they are highly inaccurate. And what's more evident is that PSP only managed to sell 3k more in the month that they had a pricedrop? Sorry NPD, there's just no way that could have happened. The surge in PSP sales due to pricedrop must be way, way more than that.

PS3 is doing an excellent job. No they're not in any trouble nor should Sony be concerned at all. Let's just all wait until 2012, then you'll all see that all these numbers are jibbish. Just you wait.

MAILER_DAEMON

Seriously the level of denial in this thread is just plain embarassing to watch.

[QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

flood

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make... 

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

Sorry, flood, but you wrote a blog entitled Why the PS3 is the best choice this next gen!!!!!!! months before the system was even released.  Claims of impartiality are off of the table.

[QUOTE="flood"][QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

Darth_Tigris

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make... 

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

Sorry, flood, but you wrote a blog entitled Why the PS3 is the best choice this next gen!!!!!!! months before the system was even released.  Claims of impartiality are off of the table.

yah...i'll take your accusations of being a sony fonboy to heart tonight while im playing HALO3. get over yourself dood.

i simply stated what i still believe, the PS3 is the most well rounded next gen system out, and in THREE years it will be the dominant platform. in now way does that disprove anything ive said about the NPD. heres a hint ....next time argue the point and leave the persoanl drama alone, it makes you look petty.

[QUOTE="Darth_Tigris"][QUOTE="flood"][QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

flood

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make...

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

Sorry, flood, but you wrote a blog entitled Why the PS3 is the best choice this next gen!!!!!!! months before the system was even released. Claims of impartiality are off of the table.

yah...i'll take your accusations of being a sony fonboy to heart tonight while im playing HALO3. get over yourself dood.

i simply stated what i still believe, the PS3 is the most well rounded next gen system out, and in THREE years it will be the dominant platform. in now way does that disprove anything ive said about the NPD. heres a hint ....next time argue the point and leave the persoanl drama alone, it makes you look petty.

Fanboyism isn't buying one product exclusively. It's believing in a reality skewered towards one particular platform. There are fanboy tendencies in most people. I tend to see things Nintendo's way. However you are very much a Sony fanboy, because nearly everything you do spins Sony in a positive light.

By the way, please find me an example of another platform selling this poorly early on, being outsold by the market leader by a 4:1 ratio.

The PS3 will stick around. But it's never going to be "dominant", as you suggest, especially when its advantages are as intangible as storage capacity and a processor. What is tangible is games. And I don't see the PS3 getting many exclusives over the next three years that don't come from Sony.

[QUOTE="banjobear_basic"]

Agreed. NPD numbers are not to be trusted since they are highly inaccurate. And what's more evident is that PSP only managed to sell 3k more in the month that they had a pricedrop? Sorry NPD, there's just no way that could have happened. The surge in PSP sales due to pricedrop must be way, way more than that.

PS3 is doing an excellent job. No they're not in any trouble nor should Sony be concerned at all. Let's just all wait until 2012, then you'll all see that all these numbers are jibbish. Just you wait.

jedigemini

Seriously the level of denial in this thread is just plain embarassing to watch.

:lol::lol: I guess someone lost their sarcasm detector. Maybe you should not be in such a hurry to pimp Nintnedo it might afford you more time to read the post and reflect on its meaning.

What is tangible is games.Oilers99

I won't be buying a PS3, regardless of what kinds of games it has, until the sytem reaches at the very least a sub $400 pricetag.  The one trend that I was more or less upset about this generation was the move to having the price point for consoles go up so notably, with Sony's offering being twice the price that either the PS1 or PS2 were at launch (at least in the US).  I'm simply not willing to put that much money down on a system as a consumer, no matter how powerful it is, and, to a degree, regardless of what it has in terms of software, as we're at a stage where one can find great games on a variety of platforms.

I suspect that there are others like me who feel the same way, and simply aren't willing to spend beyond a certain point for a game system, especially when we view the multi-media features of a system as being non-issues regarding the price. 

[QUOTE="flood"][QUOTE="Darth_Tigris"][QUOTE="flood"][QUOTE="Mantorok"][QUOTE="flood"]

but just to let PS3 owners know, that regardless of what people will tell you the PS3 is just fine, its not going anywhere, and we will all be laughing in 3 years when all of this "the PS3 is dying!!OMGZRK!!" just seems so silly

Oilers99

Just by reading the thread title and poster I could tell this was the point you were going to [eventually] try and make...

but is that point any less warranted than the point i made on how they under reported ninintendo wiis sales numbers?

the wii sold far more after launch than the NPD credited them for. i am more than willing to bring that to the front...so why label me as "having an agenda" when i clearly dont.

all im saying is the NPD data is a tool. and some will wield it fairly, and some will use it to agitate and irritate. i just want PS3 owners ( who by the way have had to really eat alot of BS from just about every angle lately) to see that everything isnt so bleek.

Sorry, flood, but you wrote a blog entitled Why the PS3 is the best choice this next gen!!!!!!! months before the system was even released. Claims of impartiality are off of the table.

yah...i'll take your accusations of being a sony fonboy to heart tonight while im playing HALO3. get over yourself dood.

i simply stated what i still believe, the PS3 is the most well rounded next gen system out, and in THREE years it will be the dominant platform. in now way does that disprove anything ive said about the NPD. heres a hint ....next time argue the point and leave the persoanl drama alone, it makes you look petty.

Fanboyism isn't buying one product exclusively. It's believing in a reality skewered towards one particular platform. There are fanboy tendencies in most people. I tend to see things Nintendo's way. However you are very much a Sony fanboy, because nearly everything you do spins Sony in a positive light.

well heres my issue w/ your logic.
i personally like the bluray option, and i will not be convinced that more storage space is a bad thing. so i will defend sony putting in the bluray.
i personally feel that having a processor thats structured the way sony has built the cell is clever and well planned for longevity.
do i think the price is the best decision? no
do i think letting GTA4 slip into multiplat was a good idea? no
there have been many things sony has done that i wont defend....but at the same time each and everyone of those mistakes have been painfully debated and profusely picked apart....so why should i be yet another voice in an allready thundderous chior of haters and ill wishers? i figure hey i like my PS3 and so i'll be unlike alot of people and mabye point out some good points....mabye defend my system a bit from the hordes of rabid sonyhaters. that doesnt make me skewed or fanboyish in the least.

By the way, please find me an example of another platform selling this poorly early on, being outsold by the market leader by a 4:1 ratio.

The PS3 will stick around. But it's never going to be "dominant", as you suggest, especially when its advantages are as intangible as storage capacity and a processor. What is tangible is games. And I don't see the PS3 getting many exclusives over the next three years that don't come from Sony.

i just wish the arguments you had werent mirrored by the same people who hated on the PS2. i know i know, your sick of hearing the ole " ps2-ps3 same thing" argument....but its true. the ps2 was chided for trying to push the dvd format onto gamers who didnt want a movie player
the ps2 was attacked for using a dvd as a storage when sega decided to go with the cheaper gigcdroms.
everyone tore sony apart saying the first year for the PS2 showed no 3rd party support would be there for sony
everyone said the ps2 was jumping a generation too early into dvd......and that clearly was wrong.
the PS2 continues to sell because it is a console that is relevenat to gamers and can continue to provide games gamers find compelling.....and alot of the reasons its able to do that is the very same reasons they were derrided for early on

im just seeing the same patterns, in the arguments, the logic and the overall attitude towards towards the ps2 that we're now seeing resurface agaisnt the PS3.i wouldnt expect you to just sit back and listen to someone make baseless claims about the Wii. if you enjoy your console you have every right to defend it. that doesnt make you a fanboy by any means.

i own all the consoles and i enjoy them all, i have and will defended the 360 just as much if not more than the PS3.