What I want to know is where else do we go from here? I mean in terms of leaps and bounds all we get is slightly better graphics and better online networks and this last gen lasted a lot longer then previous ones and a lot of folks aren't jumping on the next gen bandwagon because the new consoles haven't wowed them. In a couple years we'll see the "slim redesigns" of consoles as we always do which work out the bugs of the first wave and usually have more storage.
But I am still of the camp that the console market is going to crash. Not like the Atari crash, but more like a paradigm shift where the business practices of the console market are going to change. Not sure how whether it does go full digital or games become like DVDs and have some universal format.
It's easy to look at the first day PS4 sales and think everything's coming up roses but we're not looking at the big picture:
1) A LOT of studios have been closing lately. THQ, Lucasarts, etc. If things are so good, why are so many studios closing their doors.
2) Big budgets, not enough returns. Best example to use, the recent Tomb Raider game. It did well selling 3 million units, yet the studio considered it a failure because they spent so much on high end graphics engines, it needed 6 million just to break even. Thus this is leading to companies less likely to take risks and making the same sequels, reboots, etc. As well as leading to DRM practices, used game witch hunts and on disc DLC.
3) PCs, tablets, smartphones, browser games: We don't want to act like these are a threat to consoles but they are. See hardcore gamers, you are not the majority, nor are we the center of the universe. Sure the hardcore crowd will rush out and buy the newest console but what happens after the initial wave. What about the general masses who play games but aren't obessed with buying the newest hardware, getting the best graphics. People love to say how Nintendo lost the casuals to "tablets" but there are just as many casual PS3/360 owners who had systems simply for Madden, GTA and CoD and watched Netfilx. Plenty of folks are perfectly content playing stuff on Smart phones/tablets and web browsers as well as sticking to last gen systems. Look at how long the NES lasted after the SNES. Look at how long the PS2 lasted.
4) No middle ground. Game Overthinker did an episode where he made the point that in gaming, there's no in between. You got your mobile/browser cheap games and your big budget AAA games and not much in between. This would be like if the only restaurant choices were really high end 5 star resturants and fast food with no places like Applebees and Chilis. The industry has a broken pricing structure where everything is $60 no matter if it's a 5 hour distraction or 70 massive RPG and a lot of us get mad when we throw down $60 for something we beat in an evening. This is probably why Steam makes such a killing on their sales. A lot of us see some games as a maybe and want to wait for a price drop or it to be used but the publishers work like Hollywood totally obsessed with release window numbers because the longer, it's on the market, the more likely those evil used game sales will eat into their profits. I still like what Reggie said regarding used games "make better games that people don't want to trade in."
I really saw this looming crash when the Xbox One was revealed (before the 180). Many asked why MS would be so stupid with doing such unfriendly consumer practices and some just thought they were being arrogant and greedy. But no, you don't get to be a software giant by being stupid. When you look at what they were doing, more focus on the Xbox One being a smart TV that also plays games, the shifting on the corporate side that did away with their games division and collapsed it into the "entertainment" division, it's a sign that MS sees console gaming in its last days and was trying to brace for impact figuring if console gaming bottoms out, they had their TV thing to fall back on. Heck we all worried Sony was going to have some sort of DRM on the PS4 at first. Remember those stories floating around about Sony having a patent on a used game blocking tech? Thank God, they didn't do that because they listened to consumers but it shows they have fears about financial stability of next gen systems.
So console gaming is at a peak now. It has gotten too big and too bloated. We saw a lot of this during this year. SimCity in particular. EA, who complains about used games, yet it's their last year's sports games that clutter up used bins more than anything, forced a game to be online all the time that had no reason to be just so they wouldn't lose anything in a used sale or someone pirated it. Which we all know DRM only affects honest gamers who bought the game legally. So now publishers have to decide to shift their way of doing things to keep going or say "well let's take the money and run" and crash.
Namely this can be avoided if companies stop worrying about having the fanciest graphics, Hollywood actors and trying to be like CoD or GTA and try to work within their budgets. Focus on having solid gameplay, lots of content as opposed to just being as showy as possible and blowing money on stupid PR stunts like shark tanks and they have to be willing to take risks. Look at Minecraft. The game looks like 8 bit legos. Has no voice acting. No story or cutscenes. Imagine of the developers pitched Minecraft to Sony or MS as an exclusive game for their consoles. The execs would probably blow it off because it didn't have super fancy high end graphics.
Some of you will say I'm out of my mind or just being pessimistic and that everything's going to be fine because SONY SOLD 1 MILLION PS4S!!! WOOOOO11!!11 But as the budgets for next gen games grows, the creativity will shrink, the business practices will get worse with DRM, DLC. Who's the say once there's an install base, Sony and MS don't flip a switch and force an update upon us that has all the draconian restrictions the X1 tried to do?
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