Just go for the 4s, the 3gs is outdated now. The 4s is just generally better at everything, faster (less downtime) better camera, etc. It's worth the extra cash to future proof you for longer, yes there will be likely a new iphone out this year, but the 4s will still be a great phone for a few more years atleast.
In the grand scheme of things, $200 won't mean much after 2 years of paying $80 (roughly) a month. Basically 3gs $1,920 total 4s $2,120 total Keep in mind you won't be getting anymore ios updates either (which means less app support ones iOS6 rolls out). You will also be getting significantly lower performance, even for light games, plus you lose all of the other features the 4s brings. You decide whether or not choosing a 3 year old phone is worth it.
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