I've noticed some say they were going to buy it at launch and some say that they could be convinced. I don't know what you think others believe about its chances at success, but I don't see any indication of its fortunes in either direction. You said that yourself, it could rise, it could fall or it could just hover somewhere in the middle. But I would have to disagree with you about the first year, the PS3 was a failure in its first year, the DS didn't exactly get off to a flying start in its first year. A system can recover from a slow start, even for the Vita right now, its not the end of the world; just like the 3DS most recently proved. Compelling price and compelling software at any point can change a systems fortunes, especially Nintendo with their first party. [spoiler] cue the "What about GC response?" :P [/spoiler] Don't read until after response. Sepewrath
The spoiler thing kinda doesn't work when I'm planning on quoting you. :P Don't worry, though, as the GCN wasn't even on my mind until I saw your comment. I'd actually say that its launch was decent, but as a whole, it was lacking appeal to the majority of gamers at the time. That's not to say that the GCN's launch couldn't have been better, but it's neither here or there at the moment, as far as I'm concerned.
I'm not dismissing those that ARE planning to buy it, but that's almost a given with any console. Even the PS3, in spite of its rough start, had those kind of consumers. Still, you'd had to believe that Nintendo would want the dedicated gamer market to be behind the Wii U out of the gate, especially considering that Nintendo's going through all of this effort to pander to the demands of the HD-gaming audience. I don't think anyone at Nintendo would feel too crazy if they saw about half of a forums' thread talking about waiting a year and/or for a price drop before they'd buy the Wii U at this point.
Out of the systems you mentioned that got off the slow starts, only the DS stands out as a system that didn't suffer any profound consequences, and the DS really suffered from supply shortages on Nintendo's part more than anything else, not from an actual bad launch. The other two examples are systems that the Wii U simply can't follow. For starters, in spite of the Wii's success, Nintendo simply doesn't have control of the console market the way Sony did prior to the PS3's launch nor the dominance that the GameBoy line and the DS had with the portable market. Plus, considering that we have no idea when the next wave of next-gen systems will be coming out, Nintendo has to establish the Wii U as soon as it can to prevent the system from being overshadowed once Sony/Microsoft's consoles arrive. Last, but certainly not least, a bad launch will no doubt affect software sales, which will affect the system's ability to move certain titles, which will affect how the system is seen from that point on from both developers and gamers. A bad launch would just create a vicious cycle that will extremely tough for the system to overcome, I feel.
I'm not saying that the Wii U can't recover from a bad start (I will say that I don't like its chances, though...), nor am I even saying that it will get off to one at the time being. I actually do think this depends on a lot what Nintendo does show when it's finally time for them to spill the beans about the system. That's why I find it shocking to see those who seem to be supporters of the console already say that they will wait it out until the state of the Wii U's software and/or price improves. I just don't think the Wii U's window is nearly as wide for Nintendo to wait it out for 8-12 months or make a big 3DS-like price drop before it starts seeing sales take off.
Online forums aren't at all representative of the market as a whole. It doesn't matter what anyone here says or does, it'll have very little impact on the over all success of the system.meetroid8
Trust me, I know all too well your statement to be true. I've myself have said that those of us who discuss these sorts of things on gaming forums are part of a very vocal, yet very small minority, especially concerning Nintendo-related products. The success of the Wii, as well as the success and failures of many of its most talked about games, is clear proof of this sentiment.
My point is still more hypothetical than anything else, since at the moment, we have no clue as to what content the Wii U will have that's catered towards the mass-market, let alone the impact that such content will even have. If I was to base it on Nintendo's last two systems, though, the Wii and 3DS, it means that Nintendo could either set the gaming world ablaze once again or be forced to do something else drastic to make sure that the system even obtains a respectable userbase. Long story short, it's a 50-50 at this point whether or not the Wii U will become that next mainstream hit, but given Nintendo's total lack of talk in regards to the 5-85 market since the system's announcement, I don't think it's ever to reach the Wii's level of appeal. Furthermore, there is a reason why Nintendo has called the Wii's successor the "Wii U," and I just find it very ironic that Nintendo's doing just about everything "right" at this point to attract the "U" part of its system's hopeful market, only to see half of them already holding back without even waiting for Nintendo's E3 showing, which will more than likely be catered almost exclusively to them.
If Nintendo wanted just the mass market success, it could be developing more Wii games at this point. However, much like with the 3DS, it's clear that Nintendo has set its sights on a more conventional market this time around (at least by this industry's current standards), so obviously, the perception of the Wii U via online forums and the like take on a rather different light than it did with the Wii and DS. That's still not to say that threads like this determines the Wii U's fate in any manner, but I feel that it just sends a bad message people to already be waiting it out before getting the system.
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