you forgot about the fact that consoles sell better at launch, so the Wii sales will not always be this high. Did you just learn slope? Is that why you did this?
Factor in your progressive slowdown for both systems. Since that factor is an unknown, you pretty much have to guesstimate, which will give you a +/- of a certain percentage. The safest way to do this is to guesstimate a high end and a low end drop and growth and apply both to sales on both figures. Also, find the sales for Holiday 2005 on Xbox 360 and Holiday 2006 on Wii and trash them. Work with what's left and your prediction will be more accurate.
Actually thats at a steady rate, but we could conclude that the rate would be more or less considering that the content that drives the hardware sale will remain non constance. You must also remember that next gen wars supposedly reflects the world wide estimate in sales.
The problem is that you are assuming that the slope is linear, when in actuality it is exponential. For example, the regular Nintendo sold a lot of copies when it first came out in the 80s, however it does not sell as many now. So, the wii will not continue to average 50k sales per day, everyday, until Agu 19 2007. Looks like you just waisted a bunch of time. If you want a better comparison, comapre how many copies of the wii and a xbox had been sold 60 days after launch.
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