the wii fad will fade - says brian hastings

heres a direct quote from http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=15611&page=3.

OK, this one's going to be controversial, but I have to say it. I like Nintendo a lot. I think Nintendo has innovated far more than any other company in the industry. And I think the Wii is really, really fun. But... let me relate to you a story that may sound familiar:

 

Your friend Reggie invites you over for a Wii Party. It's awesome. You and your friends partake in whatever beverages are legally appropriate for your age group. The next day everyone who went to the party rushes out and buys a Wii.

 

A week later Reggie hosts another Wii Party. This time only half the group comes. It's still fun, but there isn't quite as much shoving to get at the Wiimote.

 

The next week Reggie hosts another Wii Party. You tell him you have bird flu.

 

Obviously I'm exaggerating, but the Wii does have many characteristics of popular mainstream fads. It's instantaneously accessible, it's unlike anything you've tried before, and it's great fun to share with friends. In short, it's everything Nintendo said it would be and it has captured the world's imagination. The only downside is that the world is easily distracted. Tickle Me Elmo captured the world's attention at one point, as did Furbies. They were both instantly accessible, were unlike anything people had seen before, and were fun to share with friends. But a year later, after everyone had seen them and tried them out, their popularity waned.

 

The Wii is currently riding on a massive wave of mainstream attention and has been purchased by lots of people who don't normally play games. But how many of those people who are hooked on Wii Sports will also buy Wii Need For Speed? Mainstream fads usually run their course within a year. As the honeymoon period fades, the Wii will be going up against more and more graphically impressive games on the PS3 and Xbox 360. More people will be buying HD televisions and looking for the most immersive and stunning experiences available. For these reasons, I think the Wii will be more successful than the GameCube or N64 but in the long run will still be outsold by the PS3.

discuss...

I don't know if it is or not, and I have a feeling the PS3 will eventually beat out the Wii in sales.  Other than the a few Nintendo titles (Mario, Metroid, BW2) and Manhunt, i don't see many good games coming out for the wii this year.

 I've seen more titles that interest me on the PS3 that will be coming out by years end.  But that's just my taste.  The games that are coming out on the Wii right now are just sloppy ports.  I'm expecting that to change... Hopefully.

I don't know if it is or not, and I have a feeling the PS3 will eventually beat out the Wii in sales.  Other than the a few Nintendo titles (Mario, Metroid, BW2) and Manhunt, i don't see many good games coming out for the wii this year.

 I've seen more titles that interest me on the PS3 that will be coming out by years end.  But that's just my taste.  The games that are coming out on the Wii right now are just sloppy ports.  I'm expecting that to change... Hopefully.

Stucazzo

of course the wii;s popularity will fade. less and less people will be amazed by it as time progresses, and mostly gamers will end up buying it. it will have a larger "non-gamer" crowd than any other system, but i can see the craze dying down

im not saying thw ii will fail or lose this generation, but unless more culturally-amazing games like wii sports come out, there will be less and less wiis bought

The main thing a game console is suppose to do is play games and the more innovative the game the more people will want to try it and then buy it. The Wii's success hinges on the games that will be created for it. It will only be a fad if the game developers don't take the tech seriously enough to make creative and engaging games. I believe a similar opinion about the DS was made when it was released and it took some time but there are great games for it. Many of those games differ in style, content and gameplay. The Wii has great value simply because it has the VC and the young parents today played those games when they were children. Innovative and fun games plus 'old school' games make for a solid system to me and definitely not a fad.

The Wii has the potential it needs and it's only hindrance will be the future games. 

I think that the fad will fad, but it still will sell good because of mario, metroid, smash, and others.  The ps3 is just expensive, so not as many people will buy a ps3, as they bought a ps2.  And this is coming from a previous sony fanboy.

that argument has no basis whatsoever i could say the same thing for any marketed product that exists-SiiLeNCE-

I would say the same thing.

The main point- and it's entirely true- is that while these ultra-casual types will drive the userbase, and make Nintendo a great deal of money (as the console is currently profitable on a per-unit basis) they won't drive long term software sales. They just won't- these aren't the type of people that will be buying many games. You still need to attract core gamers, and for that you need more software that appeals to them. The easy, pick up and play stuff will be ok for the ultra-casuals, but that will only last so long, and if they want long term success with the console they better be able to fill the pipeline with quality software of appreciable depth. The business model won't hold long term without it.Spelunker

I believe 'N' is trying to break that line of thinking. I feel they are trying to move gaming into an area that everyone will enjoy in the long term. The way games are being created makes the difference in how they are played and who will play them. Why can't a casual gamer play a 'core gamers' game if the interface is extremely easy to use? Why not make it so? What makes a core gamer? If the developers make more great games that a casual gamer can get into, then they may be converted to core gamers. I can see what you're saying, but only if the developers fail in this opportunity to reach more people. If they make a great game and anyone can get the control scheme, then word of mouth will bring all types of gamers. Those games will fit any fan base and I think that's very important for developers to take into consideration. 

Lemme hit Hastings with a quote from Reggie when asked a question on the same topic, that I still agree with:
"The Wii will only be a gimmick if we marginalise the use of the wiimote. And we absolutely no intention of doing that."

Also, regarding hardcore poeducts and mainstream products, Anoma (to IGN) said the following:
"Nintendo has released games like Wii Sports and Zelda Twilight Princes....both are produced by Miyamoto-san and both are very fun in their own right, so it's no as if one's better than the other....it's not like Nintendo to go in a simplified direction, it's all about balance."

     I think I'm going to win the award for looking too deeply into this.   Bear with me.

     The Wii will falter, but it will only do so because the market has dictated it.  You see, as Microsoft, Sony, and even Sega pushed out their next-gen consoles the buzz word has been about one thing only.  Price.  Nintendo was ashamed of what "price" did to the video game market in Japan (collasped), and rushed to save not only their failing market techniques, but also all of video game land from falling into the next recession.  That led to new ways to play on the DS and Wii.  So far they are proving that their "something different" is in fact generating buzz and helping out all systems in terms of interest and profitability.  But this seems to be because people have a connection with Nintendo and are just now seeing the alternatives.  The problem lies in the fact that the alternatives are not after preserving the market, but are after the allmighty dollar.

     When you look at the business cycle of video gaming.  It is obvious that there has only been two recessions, 1983 and 1995.  Why did the happen?  Games.  In 1983 it was E.T. and Pacman (crappy ports) while 1995 saw failed gaming consoles (Saturn, Sega CD, MAC, Jaguar, Virtual Boy, 3DO).  Why is this important?  Because video gaming officially started with Pong back in 1972.  That means that the cycle has an 11-13 year period.  So the next recession is due for this year or the next.  What saved gaming back then was the Nintendo's ability to properly make playable (not perfect) ports of arcade games and Sony's ability to attract gamers older than 14. But as every gamer knows, Nintendo did not debut til 1985 while the Playstation wasn't competing for the top until Square announced Final Fantasy 7 back in 1996.  That means that the industry floundered, but was never considered out.

     Can the Wii save us from the recession?  Maybe.  But it will do so only if the other companies decide to cripple Nintendo.  The other companies view gaming as a computer hooked to a TV, which was never the point of the industry (as evidenced by the fact that computers can use TV's as monitors and run much better).  If they manage to show compassion and produce a form of gaming into interactivity that is both interesting and fun, Nintendo will lose its selling points.  If retailers decide that the Wii does not need a discount while slashing prices of the other consoles to about $300, Nintendo loses its price point.  If IP holders decide not to endorse the VC because they can make more money elsewhere, then retro gaming will move with it.  While this tends to spell out disaster, remember that this means that consumers will have found things BETTER than Nintendo.  And that something better will probably be viewed as the savior of gaming, not just the start of the revolution.

     How likely is this...haha like i know!  All i know is that if Nintendo wins then I will just feel sorry for Sony and Microsoft.  Nintendo is the nice guy and you couldn't even shake him of his milk money.  I mean, they get all the nice candy while Nintendo ate apples and oranges.  Nintendo is reminding parents of a time when gaming wasn't expensive and could be played amongst friends.  I'd like to think that this is the calm before the storm, because when the recession hits...we'll all know about it. 

     I think I'm going to win the award for looking too deeply into this.   Bear with me.

     The Wii will falter, but it will only do so because the market has dictated it.  You see, as Microsoft, Sony, and even Sega pushed out their next-gen consoles the buzz word has been about one thing only.  Price.  Nintendo was ashamed of what "price" did to the video game market in Japan (collasped), and rushed to save not only their failing market techniques, but also all of video game land from falling into the next recession.  That led to new ways to play on the DS and Wii.  So far they are proving that their "something different" is in fact generating buzz and helping out all systems in terms of interest and profitability.  But this seems to be because people have a connection with Nintendo and are just now seeing the alternatives.  The problem lies in the fact that the alternatives are not after preserving the market, but are after the allmighty dollar.

     When you look at the business cycle of video gaming.  It is obvious that there has only been two recessions, 1983 and 1995.  Why did the happen?  Games.  In 1983 it was E.T. and Pacman (crappy ports) while 1995 saw failed gaming consoles (Saturn, Sega CD, MAC, Jaguar, Virtual Boy, 3DO).  Why is this important?  Because video gaming officially started with Pong back in 1972.  That means that the cycle has an 11-13 year period.  So the next recession is due for this year or the next.  What saved gaming back then was the Nintendo's ability to properly make playable (not perfect) ports of arcade games and Sony's ability to attract gamers older than 14. But as every gamer knows, Nintendo did not debut til 1985 while the Playstation wasn't competing for the top until Square announced Final Fantasy 7 back in 1996.  That means that the industry floundered, but was never considered out.

     Can the Wii save us from the recession?  Maybe.  But it will do so only if the other companies decide to cripple Nintendo.  The other companies view gaming as a computer hooked to a TV, which was never the point of the industry (as evidenced by the fact that computers can use TV's as monitors and run much better).  If they manage to show compassion and produce a form of gaming into interactivity that is both interesting and fun, Nintendo will lose its selling points.  If retailers decide that the Wii does not need a discount while slashing prices of the other consoles to about $300, Nintendo loses its price point.  If IP holders decide not to endorse the VC because they can make more money elsewhere, then retro gaming will move with it.  While this tends to spell out disaster, remember that this means that consumers will have found things BETTER than Nintendo.  And that something better will probably be viewed as the savior of gaming, not just the start of the revolution.

     How likely is this...haha like i know!  All i know is that if Nintendo wins then I will just feel sorry for Sony and Microsoft.  Nintendo is the nice guy and you couldn't even shake him of his milk money.  I mean, they get all the nice candy while Nintendo ate apples and oranges.  Nintendo is reminding parents of a time when gaming wasn't expensive and could be played amongst friends.  I'd like to think that this is the calm before the storm, because when the recession hits...we'll all know about it. 

SirSpudly

*clap* *clap*

My two cents?

Yes, maybe the evils of capitalism will crush Nintendo, but I think it is more likely that Sony and Microsoft will steal Nintendo's idea and make even more money off it. I suspected this since the beginning of this gen, and seeing that Sony already has the motion-sensing controller (which no one seems to talk about, by the way), it sort of confirms my premonition.

But how many of those people who are hooked on Wii Sports will also buy Wii Need For Speed?

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]jsrock_on54

[QUOTE="-SiiLeNCE-"]that argument has no basis whatsoever i could say the same thing for any marketed product that existschris3116

I would say the same thing.

The main point- and it's entirely true- is that while these ultra-casual types will drive the userbase, and make Nintendo a great deal of money (as the console is currently profitable on a per-unit basis) they won't drive long term software sales. They just won't- these aren't the type of people that will be buying many games. You still need to attract core gamers, and for that you need more software that appeals to them. The easy, pick up and play stuff will be ok for the ultra-casuals, but that will only last so long, and if they want long term success with the console they better be able to fill the pipeline with quality software of appreciable depth. The business model won't hold long term without it.Spelunker

the ps2 was a huge casual fad.  all it took was one game to make everything think it was a must own system... i dont know how many hoses i have been to where they own a ps2 grand theft auto and a madden game and that is it.  i dont think anyone should think that a console that appeals to casuals is in anyway not going to sell millions.

As I understand it, Mr Hastings said that by 2010 the PS3 will be the top seller? Okay, so he's calling the Wii a fad that will fade. There's some irony in his comments. By the time 2010 rolls around and everyone has their HDTV's, wont the "fad" of more "graphically Impressive" games have worn off? By that time, everyone will have seen the extent of better graphics to its fullest for this Gen of consoles. I have a 360 as well as a Wii and I plan to pick up a PS3 as soon as the price drops dramatically. But I can honestly say that once the "wow" factor of the great graphics my 360 produces faded, I'm still left playing games that feel like i'm treading familiar water. A feeling I rarely get when I pick up my Wii-Remote and bash some dudes head off of a counter-top in The Godfather by actually making the motion. Or when I feel like i'm actually holding the the M1 Garand i'm firing in MOH:Vanguard. Or in NFS:Carbon when you use the Wii-Remote as though it were the gas pedal for your ride.

I guess the point i'm trying to make is that, I highly disagree with Mr. Hastings calling the Wii "just a fad". For a TRUE "hardcore" gamer such as myself, I need something more than pretty pictures to stay excited about a game or console. I'm sorry I haven't become complacent enough in my gaming to be satisfied by just better graphics. I've been playing video games for 24 years now and I'm glad something new like the Wii was released. It gets me excited to play games again. Because everytime I pop a different game into that little bugger, its always a new and different experience. Don't get me wrong, I love my 360 and will probably love PS3. But if, by some strange chance, a game releases on all 3 consoles, you can bet I'll pick the Wii version over the other 2.

 Sorry, bout the rant. Let the bashing begin, nerds!

I guess the point i'm trying to make is that, I highly disagree with Mr. Hastings calling the Wii "just a fad". For a TRUE "hardcore" gamer such as myself, I need something more than pretty pictures to stay excited about a game or console. I'm sorry I haven't become complacent enough in my gaming to be satisfied by just better graphics.

Unkoil666

nicelaaay spoken, stranger. nothing to add from me.

The only reason the people arnt going to the Wii party is because the by the 3rd time everyone already has a Wii....lite_ds

Was the DS a fad too??? geo888

i just wish i got some use out of my wii these days.  it was fun at first, but the games got old fast and the control gimmick wore off after a while.  zelda was kind of fun, but i got tired of playing a game with xbox 1 graphics (at best).

 i certainly hope some good games come out soon.  lacking that, I am glad that nintendo is still limiting the supply so i can offload my wii on the secondary market without taking a loss.

The only reason the people arnt going to the Wii party is because the by the 3rd time everyone already has a Wii....lite_ds

I was going to say the same thing.