America probably won't reach pre-recession employment level until 2016

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whipassmt

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#1 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

Obama and Biden are trying to play up the economic recovery which followed the recession, saying that 4.4 million private sector jobs have been created over the last 28 months. However the actual numbers of jobs in America is still less than when the recession started and there are in fact 500,000 fewer jobs today than there were when Obama took office. Generally speaking, after a recession comes a recovery and the current recovery is much weaker than previous recoveries (once again Obama and Biden are talking up these 4.4 million jobs, whereas at this point in his Presidency, Reagan had created 9.5 million jobs).

After Obama implemented his "stimulus" the unemployment rate is about 8.2%. In comparison after Bush enacted his tax cuts in 2003, the economy created 7.8 million new jobs while the unemployment rate fell from 6% to 4.4% over four years. Obama says that he has presided over 28 straight months of jobs growth, however job growth is actually the norm in recent U.S. history (there were 52 months of consecutive job growth under Bush).

The main problem is that our economic growth is so slow that we won't reach pre-recession job levels until 2016.

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Tokugawa77

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#2 Tokugawa77
Member since 2009 • 1554 Posts

What's the problem with 2016? that sounds a bit optimistic, actually. It took us years and a world war to get us out of the great depresion

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TacticalDesire

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#3 TacticalDesire
Member since 2010 • 10713 Posts

2016 isn't a terrible date, I'm just wondering if it will even matter who is elected president this year, it could very well be a similar date either way.

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whipassmt

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#4 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

What's the problem with 2016? that sounds a bit optimistic, actually. It took us years and a world war to get us out of the great depresion

Tokugawa77

It's not too bad. But those 4 years are gonna be hard for a lot of people. Plus it's possible that other developments (e.g. the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, a major conflict between the federal government and religious groups over the controversial HHS mandate) can harm the economy and push back that date.

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rocinante_

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#5 rocinante_
Member since 2012 • 1772 Posts

considering the scope of the recession, that figure is surprising

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CycleOfViolence

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#6 CycleOfViolence
Member since 2011 • 2813 Posts

Not really a shocking revelation. Economists were saying full recovery would likely take more than five years last year if I recall correctly. Some members of the public need to realize that there isn't a magic fix it switch that exists that will bring back all the jobs that were lost.

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ristactionjakso

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#7 ristactionjakso
Member since 2011 • 6118 Posts

Love this thread. Obama and Biden just talk through their azzes.

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Serraph105

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#8 Serraph105
Member since 2007 • 36092 Posts

Most economists say it will take about 10 or 11 years until we are out of it, and employers feel at ease about it. Only people I see saying it will take 4 or so years are idiots and politicians, which is probably redundant.

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chessmaster1989

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#9 chessmaster1989
Member since 2008 • 30203 Posts
and there are in fact 500,000 fewer jobs today than there were when Obama took office Right, but that's not necessarily a fair metric to use. For example, I don't think anyone would sensibly blame Obama for the job losses in January or February of 2009, since at that point there was no real chance to affect the economy. A lot of jobs were lost in his tenure before any of his policies went into law.
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CycleOfViolence

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#10 CycleOfViolence
Member since 2011 • 2813 Posts

For example, I don't think anyone would sensibly blame Obama for the job losses in January or February of 2009, since at that point there was no real chance to affect the economy.chessmaster1989

Unfortunately some people aren't well versed in the fine art of critical thinking.

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GreySeal9

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#11 GreySeal9
Member since 2010 • 28247 Posts

[QUOTE="chessmaster1989"]For example, I don't think anyone would sensibly blame Obama for the job losses in January or February of 2009, since at that point there was no real chance to affect the economy.CycleOfViolence

Unfortunately some people aren't well versed in the fine art of critical thinking.

Well, the TC does seem to think that the Bush tax cuts are somehow key to solving our economic woes. :lol:

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whipassmt

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#12 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

and there are in fact 500,000 fewer jobs today than there were when Obama took office Right, but that's not necessarily a fair metric to use. For example, I don't think anyone would sensibly blame Obama for the job losses in January or February of 2009, since at that point there was no real chance to affect the economy. A lot of jobs were lost in his tenure before any of his policies went into law.chessmaster1989
True. But you can blame Congress for the recession, and Obama was a member of Congress, so he is not totally guiltless.

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whipassmt

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#13 whipassmt
Member since 2007 • 15375 Posts

[QUOTE="CycleOfViolence"]

[QUOTE="chessmaster1989"]For example, I don't think anyone would sensibly blame Obama for the job losses in January or February of 2009, since at that point there was no real chance to affect the economy.GreySeal9

Unfortunately some people aren't well versed in the fine art of critical thinking.

Well, the TC does seem to think that the Bush tax cuts are somehow key to solving our economic woes. :lol:

I didn't say that they were key, however letting them expire would be bad for the economy as it would leave the American people with less money in their pockets.

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GreySeal9

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#14 GreySeal9
Member since 2010 • 28247 Posts

[QUOTE="GreySeal9"]

[QUOTE="CycleOfViolence"]

Unfortunately some people aren't well versed in the fine art of critical thinking.

whipassmt

Well, the TC does seem to think that the Bush tax cuts are somehow key to solving our economic woes. :lol:

I didn't say that they were key, however letting them expire would be bad for the economy as it would leave the American people with less money in their pockets.

What Congress needs to do is create a second round of stimulus that is actually large and well-targeted enough to get the job done (the 2009 stimulus was a mess) and then sunset the Bush tax cuts to help pay for it.

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Blue-Sky

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#15 Blue-Sky
Member since 2005 • 10381 Posts

So we're going to undo decades of bad policies in four years?

Are we really underestimating our economic situation that much?

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BuryMe

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#16 BuryMe
Member since 2004 • 22017 Posts

2016 sounds fantastic.

The problem is that people seem to want some magical policy to be implemented that will suddenly fix everything. Get real.

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Mafiree

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#17 Mafiree
Member since 2008 • 3704 Posts

So we're going to undo decades of bad policies in four years?

Are we really underestimating our economic situation that much?

Blue-Sky
Obama advertised his stimulus as such...... I believe the unemployment rate was suppose to be around 6% now with his forecast.
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Bloodseeker23

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#18 Bloodseeker23
Member since 2008 • 8338 Posts
Enough time for another olympics.
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k2theswiss

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#19 k2theswiss
Member since 2007 • 16599 Posts

NO tax cuts for any company outsource for things that's that can be done here

tax cuts for company's who in-soruce all of their work

require all products made USA have small sticker right on the front of the box stating it was made here.

that should help a little. the sticker should help increase sales on u.s products a little big. personally if there was 2 products on the store self and i can easily tell, I will pick my home. i would like to buy more items in u.s. but i am not going go down the store shelf and flip a dam box for 2 minutes until i find font size 3 in the worst spot.

im no economy guy. but hey just opinion

manufacturing jobs is other story. We don't have the man power to fill those jobs like china lol

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chessmaster1989

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#20 chessmaster1989
Member since 2008 • 30203 Posts
[QUOTE="Blue-Sky"]

So we're going to undo decades of bad policies in four years?

Are we really underestimating our economic situation that much?

Mafiree
Obama advertised his stimulus as such...... I believe the unemployment rate was suppose to be around 6% now with his forecast.

Yeah but that was a political forecast, not an economic one.
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l4dak47

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#21 l4dak47
Member since 2009 • 6838 Posts
So.....basically right around the time I graduate from college. That's not bad, actually.
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#22 comp_atkins
Member since 2005 • 38943 Posts

NO tax cuts for any company outsource for things that's that can be done here

tax cuts for company's who in-soruce all of their work

require all products made USA have small sticker right on the front of the box stating it was made here.

that should help a little. the sticker should help increase sales on u.s products a little big. personally if there was 2 products on the store self and i can easily tell, I will pick my home. i would like to buy more items in u.s. but i am not going go down the store shelf and flip a dam box for 2 minutes until i find font size 3 in the worst spot.

im no economy guy. but hey just opinion

manufacturing jobs is other story. We don't have the man power to fill those jobs like china lol

k2theswiss
that sounds like job killing regulation to me...
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deactivated-5b78379493e12

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#23 deactivated-5b78379493e12
Member since 2005 • 15625 Posts

Considering that we have a do-nothing Congress, I would say 2016 sounds optimistic. The growing partisan ship will only making helping the economy more difficult. The President can only do so much. Congress has the greater power to make changes, and they are more focused on bickering and anti-abortion and contraception laws.

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Mafiree

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#24 Mafiree
Member since 2008 • 3704 Posts
[QUOTE="Mafiree"][QUOTE="Blue-Sky"]

So we're going to undo decades of bad policies in four years?

Are we really underestimating our economic situation that much?

chessmaster1989
Obama advertised his stimulus as such...... I believe the unemployment rate was suppose to be around 6% now with his forecast.

Yeah but that was a political forecast, not an economic one.

Call it whatever you want. It was either a lie or they suck at what they are doing.