[QUOTE="Samurai_Xavier"]
I really disagree with those who keep saying Avatar will flop. Its not just internet people who know about the movie. In fact, its internet people who keep complaining abou tit. Dont underestimate how many fans James Cameron has. Anyone who has ever seen any of his movies (even Titanic) probably has some interest in watching Avatar.
There's something I would like to point out. When Titanic was about to come out, it was almost the exact same situation of Avatar. Everyone kept talking about how hard it was gonna flop because of its ridiculous budget and hype. I really dont think Avatar will do as well as Titanic, but believe me, I think it will make money for the same reason Titanic made money. People were curious to know whether the movie would be really good or really bad.
MrGeezer
Titanic also came out quite a while ago.
These days, word-of-mouth spreads a LOT faster. We're in the age in which movies can have solid opening day numbers, then experience a sharp drop-off THE VERY NEXT DAY and never recover from it.
Today, people driving to the cinema can get reviews on their PHONES, and decide to see a different movie.
We're in the age in which people will Tweet about every single mundane thing they're doing. "LOL...taking a dump. It stinks!"
One thing I noticed in the TV spots I've seen is that they're being vague. They're downplaying the whole "Dances With Wolves" angle and focusing instead on action shots. I am assuming that this is for monetary reasons. They think that more people won't want to watch "Dancing With Wolves and Smurfs", so they're playing up the ACTION part by showing mechs and guns and flashing captions such as "from the director of Aliens".
But do you think that this strategy is going to WORK for them in this day and age? They can downplay the "Dances With Wolves" angle all they want, everyone's still going to know about that on opening day. Meanwhile, people sitting in the cinema are going to be giving minute-by-minute updates on every lame-ass thing in the movie as it happens. As I said, word-of-mouth spreads faster now than it used to.
At best, "interest" will get you a solid opening weekend. But when your movie costs $500 million, "interest" isn't enough. You're gonna need some serious staying power, and that's a LOT harder to get, even if your movie IS a bona-fide masterpiece.
And does that $500 million figure even take into account stuff like advertising? Because if you gambled on a $500 million movie, then you'd BETTER advertise the hell out of it. Then you'd better hope that the advertising pays off, because that kind of advertising costs a LOT of ****ing money.
What are you talking about? The whole reason why Titanic is the highest grossing movie of all time IS because of word of mouth. That movie was in theatres for almost a full year because people kept talking abou tit. Using your logic, if the movie is good, word of mouth is what will make it a huge success.
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