Evolution and probability

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kneeha

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#1 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts

After looking at the statistics on the probability of evolution (If you believe in it) How do you rationalize it being true? Not a joke i really want to know your reasoning.

Simple Statistics

A little more complex statistics more so on the the universe by chance in general.

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Harisemo

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#2 Harisemo
Member since 2010 • 4133 Posts

its obvious you dont understand evolution coz if you did then you'd know its true

Edit: oh yeah btw you linked to a christian website, prepare your flameshield

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Brainkiller05

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#3 Brainkiller05
Member since 2005 • 28954 Posts
What? You're supposed to actually understand it before trying to disprove it.
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kneeha

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#4 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts
What? You're supposed to actually understand it before trying to disprove it.Brainkiller05
Not trying to disprove it, I just want to understand the rationale behind believing a theory with extremely low probability.
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broken_bass_bin

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#5 broken_bass_bin
Member since 2009 • 7515 Posts

Because there is an abundance of irrefutabe scientific evidence supporting it.

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Harisemo

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#6 Harisemo
Member since 2010 • 4133 Posts

[QUOTE="Brainkiller05"]What? You're supposed to actually understand it before trying to disprove it.kneeha
Not trying to disprove it, I just want to understand the rationale behind believing a theory with extremely low probability.

the rationale cannot be understood unless you're a gifted atheist

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_Tobli_

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#7 _Tobli_
Member since 2007 • 5733 Posts

Not trying to disprove it, I just want to understand the rationale behind believing a theory with extremely low probability. kneeha

Please, please, read up on evolution, and then you will hopefully understand how silly that statement sounds.

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Brainkiller05

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#8 Brainkiller05
Member since 2005 • 28954 Posts
[QUOTE="Brainkiller05"]What? You're supposed to actually understand it before trying to disprove it.kneeha
Not trying to disprove it, I just want to understand the rationale behind believing a theory with extremely low probability.

isn't it mathematically impossible for 2 people (adam and eve) to turn into 7 billion people in 6 thousand years? the rationale behind believing it is because there's evidence and proof and it makes sense (unlike certain things...)
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ToppledPillars

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#10 ToppledPillars
Member since 2010 • 1590 Posts

After looking at the statistics on the probability of evolution (If you believe in it) How do you rationalize it being true? Not a joke i really want to know your reasoning.

Simple Statistics

A little more complex statistics more so on the the universe by chance in general.

kneeha
what do you suggest is more probable
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entropyecho

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#11 entropyecho
Member since 2005 • 22053 Posts

I don't think the Bible was meant to be a science book.

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kneeha

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#13 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts
[QUOTE="kneeha"][QUOTE="Brainkiller05"]What? You're supposed to actually understand it before trying to disprove it.Brainkiller05
Not trying to disprove it, I just want to understand the rationale behind believing a theory with extremely low probability.

isn't it mathematically impossible for 2 people (adam and eve) to turn into 7 billion people in 6 thousand years? the rationale behind believing it is because there's evidence and proof and it makes sense (unlike certain things...)

It's not mathematically impossible.
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tiopuit

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#14 tiopuit
Member since 2010 • 358 Posts

After looking at the statistics on the probability of evolution (If you believe in it) How do you rationalize it being true? Not a joke i really want to know your reasoning.

Simple Statistics

A little more complex statistics more so on the the universe by chance in general.

kneeha

simply this theres2% difference between us and apes

in the past several groups of apes split up and one of those gruops were put into a postion which allowed them to evolve to survive in their new enviroment and so forth came man

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Brainkiller05

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#16 Brainkiller05
Member since 2005 • 28954 Posts
 I'm out of here, OP is stuck on a road regardless of rational thinking.
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kneeha

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#17 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts

[QUOTE="kneeha"]

After looking at the statistics on the probability of evolution (If you believe in it) How do you rationalize it being true? Not a joke i really want to know your reasoning.

Simple Statistics

A little more complex statistics more so on the the universe by chance in general.

ToppledPillars

what do you suggest is more probable

To be honest the Bible because of fulfilled prophecy

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mucgoo

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#18 mucgoo
Member since 2010 • 317 Posts

not really 30 year reproduction span that 1800 generation and if each generation doubles thats

2*1800

that is defiantly a lot more than 7 billion

anyway dissproved one false idea in this thread

next there is a lot of evidance for evolution from basic observation such as selective breeding eg dog pedigree all the way to decoding the human genome

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testfactor888

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#19 testfactor888
Member since 2010 • 7157 Posts

[QUOTE="ToppledPillars"][QUOTE="kneeha"]

After looking at the statistics on the probability of evolution (If you believe in it) How do you rationalize it being true? Not a joke i really want to know your reasoning.

Simple Statistics

A little more complex statistics more so on the the universe by chance in general.

kneeha

what do you suggest is more probable

To be honest the Bible because of fulfilled prophecy

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Brainkiller05

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#20 Brainkiller05
Member since 2005 • 28954 Posts
[QUOTE="mucgoo"]not really 30 year reproduction span that 1800 generation and if each generation doubles thats 2 times 2*1800 that is defiantly a lot more than 7 billion anyway dissproved one false idea in this thread

uh you're aware that people die right? and that people lived till they were like 45 back then too
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mucgoo

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#21 mucgoo
Member since 2010 • 317 Posts

fine take a fertility rate avarage of 1.2 1.2^1 800 = 3.35925433 × 10^142

There only 10^80 atoms in existence in this universe (current estimate)

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ferrari2001

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#22 ferrari2001
Member since 2008 • 17772 Posts

Because there is an abundance of irrefutabe scientific evidence supporting it.

broken_bass_bin
pretty much this... /thread
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kneeha

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#23 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts

[QUOTE="mucgoo"]not really 30 year reproduction span that 1800 generation and if each generation doubles thats 2 times 2*1800 that is defiantly a lot more than 7 billion anyway dissproved one false idea in this thread Brainkiller05
uh you're aware that people die right? and that people lived till they were like 45 back then too

not really 30 year reproduction span that 1800 generation and if each generation doubles thats

2*1800

that is defiantly a lot more than 7 billion

anyway dissproved one false idea in this thread

next there is a lot of evidance for evolution from basic observation such as selective breeding eg dog pedigree all the way to decoding the human genome

mucgoo

Selective dog breeding does'nt really help because that is micro evolution, which equates to the loss of genetic information. I am more so talking about macro evolution the gain of genetic information with positive results. As far as decodinng the human genome i do not know much about it and have to research for a few months to be able to talk about it.

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blackacidevil96

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#24 blackacidevil96
Member since 2006 • 3855 Posts

[QUOTE="Brainkiller05"][QUOTE="mucgoo"]not really 30 year reproduction span that 1800 generation and if each generation doubles thats 2 times 2*1800 that is defiantly a lot more than 7 billion anyway dissproved one false idea in this thread kneeha
uh you're aware that people die right? and that people lived till they were like 45 back then too

not really 30 year reproduction span that 1800 generation and if each generation doubles thats

2*1800

that is defiantly a lot more than 7 billion

anyway dissproved one false idea in this thread

next there is a lot of evidance for evolution from basic observation such as selective breeding eg dog pedigree all the way to decoding the human genome

mucgoo

Selective dog breeding does'nt really help because that is micro evolution, which equates to the loss of genetic information. I am more so talking about macro evolution the gain of genetic information with positive results. As far as decodingn genome i do not know much about it and have to research for a few months to be able to talk about it.

well than could you please research evolution for a few months before trying to talk about it? please.

this micro vs. macro thing has been beaten to the ground over and over and over.

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_Tobli_

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#25 _Tobli_
Member since 2007 • 5733 Posts

micro evolution kneeha

The only difference between micro and macro evolution is timespan

which equates to the loss of genetic information. kneeha

wrong

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suchasadness

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#26 suchasadness
Member since 2010 • 55 Posts
_Tobli_ is right. And this is the last I want to see of micro versus macro evolution this forum.
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kris9031998

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#27 kris9031998
Member since 2008 • 7554 Posts
Evolution has been kind of.....strange to me. Im not trying to be religous, even though i am a christian. Im just saying it just doesnt seem correct. Oh and BTW people who fight against ideas like this have to understand the idea of COMBINING religion and science.
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_Tobli_

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#28 _Tobli_
Member since 2007 • 5733 Posts

Im just saying it just doesnt seem correct.kris9031998

What makes you say that?

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AnnoyedDragon

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#29 AnnoyedDragon
Member since 2006 • 9948 Posts

The probability argument is a failed attempt by creationists to disprove evolution on chance alone.

The mistake being they are calculating a single state and then declaring it infinitely improbable. But you can do that for anything, I can pick up a rock; and the chances of all those atoms being in those exact positions are infinitely improbable, but it still happened because I'm holding it.

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mucgoo

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#30 mucgoo
Member since 2010 • 317 Posts
What I don't get is why they always try to argue the creationist argument. They actually stand a chance if they just say god works through evolution/the big bang, isn't actually all loving caring etc
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testfactor888

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#31 testfactor888
Member since 2010 • 7157 Posts
COMBINING religion and science.kris9031998
Why would someone want to ruin science by putting religion into it.
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kneeha

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#32 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts

[QUOTE="kneeha"]micro evolution _Tobli_

The only difference between micro and macro evolution is timespan

which equates to the loss of genetic information. kneeha

wrong

A better defenition of micro would be a change within a single species wich normally equates to a loss of genetic information or so ive read.

Link here on change within a species.

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kneeha

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#33 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts
[QUOTE="kneeha"]

[QUOTE="_Tobli_"]

micro evolution kneeha

The only difference between micro and macro evolution is timespan

which equates to the loss of genetic information. kneeha

wrong

A better defenition of micro would be a change within a single species wich normally equates to a loss of genetic information or so ive read.

Link here on change within a species.

I must say im definitely not an expert on evolution.
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_Tobli_

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#34 _Tobli_
Member since 2007 • 5733 Posts

A better defenition of micro would be a change within a single species wich normally equates to a loss of genetic information or so ive read.kneeha

What i meant was that phrasing it like that gives the wrong impression.

What are your thoughts on the speciation that has been observed?

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kneeha

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#35 kneeha
Member since 2003 • 1333 Posts

[QUOTE="kneeha"]A better defenition of micro would be a change within a single species wich normally equates to a loss of genetic information or so ive read._Tobli_

What i meant was that phrasing it like that gives the wrong impression.

What are your thoughts on the speciation that has been observed?

I believe in rapid speciation and in short and very simplistic turns heres why in a video.

Link here

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exiledsnake

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#36 exiledsnake
Member since 2005 • 1906 Posts
You guys do know that its called the THEORY of evolution? While there are evidence supporting this theory, there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.
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deactivated-59d151f079814

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#37 deactivated-59d151f079814
Member since 2003 • 47239 Posts
Your argument falls flat on its face by using hopelessly bias sources.. How bout some scientific studies on this by unbias sources.
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VaguelyTagged

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#38 VaguelyTagged
Member since 2009 • 10702 Posts

darwin's missing link found in 2009,evolution is not merely a theory anymore,it's proven and flawless.

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suchasadness

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#39 suchasadness
Member since 2010 • 55 Posts
A scientific theory is not the same as a theory in the colloquial sense. :(
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deactivated-59d151f079814

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#40 deactivated-59d151f079814
Member since 2003 • 47239 Posts

You guys do know that its called the THEORY of evolution? While there are evidence supporting this theory, there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.exiledsnake

:| You do know its a SCIENTIFIC THEORY.. To declare it as just being a "theory" shows you don't even have a basic understanding of science.

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SkyWard20

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#41 SkyWard20
Member since 2009 • 4509 Posts
[QUOTE="kris9031998"]COMBINING religion and science.testfactor888
Why would someone want to ruin science by putting religion into it.

Heard about this, but never understood it. What does reilgion have to do with science anyway?
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ganon92

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#42 ganon92
Member since 2005 • 968 Posts
You guys do know that its called the THEORY of evolution? While there are evidence supporting this theory, there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.exiledsnake
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory#The_term_theoretical Seriously.
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testfactor888

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#43 testfactor888
Member since 2010 • 7157 Posts
there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.exiledsnake
you would have these findings to show us yes?
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blackacidevil96

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#44 blackacidevil96
Member since 2006 • 3855 Posts

[QUOTE="_Tobli_"]

[QUOTE="kneeha"]A better defenition of micro would be a change within a single species wich normally equates to a loss of genetic information or so ive read.kneeha

What i meant was that phrasing it like that gives the wrong impression.

What are your thoughts on the speciation that has been observed?

I believe in rapid speciation and in short and very simplistic turns heres why in a video.

Link here

could i just point out that generally speaking im pretty sure most of those cross bread animals are infertile. I know the tiger lion cross breed sure is. that is why dont see them just running around all the time...

but seriously AMAZING VIDEO. hahaha i particularly liked the part with the ark. showing a painting of noah and some dinosaurs hahahaha :lol:

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exiledsnake

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#45 exiledsnake
Member since 2005 • 1906 Posts
[QUOTE="exiledsnake"]You guys do know that its called the THEORY of evolution? While there are evidence supporting this theory, there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.ganon92
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory#The_term_theoretical Seriously.

So? Its still a theory. Like a scientific assumption. Just a very well accepted one until another one comes along.
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theone86

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#46 theone86
Member since 2003 • 22669 Posts

Alright, first off evolution is not produced entirely by chance, it's produced by organisms who are best suited to surviving in their respective environments reproducing while organisms who are not as well suited dying before they can reproduce. Secondly, can people please stop posting links to websites like the Institute for Creation Research as proof of creationism? There is an inherent and blatantly obvious bias there and it gets old having to point it out in every thread.

Next, order vs. disorder, this argument fails to take in the matter of perspective. We judge the world as we perceive it to be in order, but what proof do we have for that? What magical force is there that makes the world in order? Besides, as I said before, saying that evolution is a series of random processes is simply wrong. Yes, perhaps random processes account for some of the evolutionary changes that occur, but the process by which these changes become a dominant trait of a species is not random at all, it's natural selection.

What the second article is also ignoring is what was stated in the first article, that just because you flip a coin twice does not mean you will get heads on at least one of those flips. Let's go with probability for a second, if an organ has a certain chance of evolving this article assumes that chance to be somewhat of a law. In other words, if it is a one in a hundred chance it takes the necessity of 100 trials in order to get the one draw for granted. However, if I "draw" the selected variable on the 20th draw that puts a hole ni their mathmatics, as 80 draws were just gained. In other words their logic is flawed, they're proceeding from a certain standpoint without ever questioning its validity or the possibility of other standpoints, and they haven't made any great, evolution-killing discovery.

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theone86

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#47 theone86
Member since 2003 • 22669 Posts

[QUOTE="ganon92"][QUOTE="exiledsnake"]You guys do know that its called the THEORY of evolution? While there are evidence supporting this theory, there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.exiledsnake
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory#The_term_theoretical Seriously.

So? Its still a theory. Like a scientific assumption. Just a very well accepted one until another one comes along.

No, an assumption would be more akin to a hypothesis, that is a loose idea of scientific operation based on minimal analysis and not supported by experimentation and evidence. Assumptions by definition are not supported by evidence, and scientific theories must be supported by extensive evidence and experiments.

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theone86

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#48 theone86
Member since 2003 • 22669 Posts

[QUOTE="testfactor888"][QUOTE="kris9031998"]COMBINING religion and science.SkyWard20
Why would someone want to ruin science by putting religion into it.

Heard about this, but never understood it. What does reilgion have to do with science anyway?

Well, at one point religion was the only institution that delved in science, I guess some people would prefer to stop using proven scientific methodology and go back to trying to turn iron into gold.

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exiledsnake

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#49 exiledsnake
Member since 2005 • 1906 Posts
[QUOTE="exiledsnake"]there are also findings that aren't concordant with it.testfactor888
you would have these findings to show us yes?

With evolution, mutations are what set organisms apart right? Well, most mutations are actually harmful to the organism which result in death which is why most eukaryotic organisms now have means to repair mutations in their DNA. Its kinda funny to say that life now has evolved to the point where life has forced itself not to evolve anymore. There are also big gaps in data relating to evolution. And to have had reptiles turn into mammals would have required mass mutation which is extremely unlikely and lethal. Which is why its still a theory.
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Thessassin

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#50 Thessassin
Member since 2007 • 1819 Posts

we know how this always turn out

don't you know evolution is just a theory?

if we evolved from monkeys why are there still monkeys?

if evolution were true how come we dont see a zebra turn into a camel?

If evolution is true and were so smart how come we cant evolve ourselves to fly?