@comp_atkins said:
i don't think people fully appreciate how good something like gasoline is at storing energy and why it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
you can put a gallon of it in an automobile, waste a full ~75% of the energy gained from burning it, and still have enough energy left over to move a 3000lb hunk of steel 30 miles down the road.
all on a bucket of liquid that weighs ~ 6lbs
while there are shitbag companies out there run by terrible people, lets not pretend alternatives can magically step in today and replace ff completely
and the earth will do just fine whatever we do. "save the earth" is simply code for "look, we have a shitload of people on the planet with more coming on-board each day and the planet needs to have the resources to support them, lets not do something shortsighted to **** it all up for everyone"
They don't have to replace fossil fuels for everything. They will replace fossil fuels for electricity generation and light duty transportation which covers the majority of the issue. Once those occur the infrastructure to replace fossil fuels for heating will be in-place.
Even now the US could substitute lower emission higher efficiency natural gas power for coal and make a significant impact for modest investment. NG is also a perfect enabler of renewables due to its high dispatch capability.
Moreover, the cost curve for renewable has already been bent. For instance, large scale solar has dropped 99% in cost since the 70s, and 85% in the past decade. The massive subsidies required to make this investment attractive are now falling to moderate subsidies and soon to be modest subsidies. The cost leap then to eliminating coal will be much, much less than in the past.
And if one looks at light duty vehicles, there is already a massive sea change happening. We are 5 years out from dozens upon dozens of hybrid electric and all electric vehicles hitting the market as every manufacturer is aggressively pursuing them, which is a completely different reality than a few specialty products that few want or can afford.
I live in Canada. Electricity generation from all types of fossil fuels is now less than 20% of all generation and that is expected to drop to less than 10% within a decade. Of course, we also have a lot of hydro which the US lacks (proportionately). Nevertheless, the US could eliminate coal within a decade (40% of current US electric generation). It is coming faster than people realize.
Also, the arguments about plastics, computers, etc are red herrings as the amount of fossil fuel input is trivial compared to electricity, transportation, and heating and those products are not the problem so it doesn't matter if we replace those uses or not.
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