Gallup Poll: Obama lead decreases to 2 points

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Good news. Hopefully McCain can pull a Truman!

Because Drudge Report wouldn't be McCain biased or anything.


Cpt_Meh

I believe thhose are Gallup poll results which are reliable.

You ARE aware that that's a hypothetical based on "likely traditional voters," right? Right now, Obama's actual lead is seven points.Theokhoth

no it's not the first poll is based off of Phone surveys, which sorry to say are not very accurate and do not reflect likely voting senarios. The traditional is much more closer to realistic voting numbers.

[QUOTE="Theokhoth"]You ARE aware that that's a hypothetical based on "likely traditional voters," right? Right now, Obama's actual lead is seven points.ferrari2001

no it's not the first poll is based off of Phone surveys, which sorry to say are not very accurate and do not reflect likely voting senarios. The traditional is much more closer to realistic voting numbers.

Which still lean in favor of Obama.

You know who's going to win when even the hypothetical scenarios favor him.

no it's not the first poll is based off of Phone surveys, which sorry to say are not very accurate and do not reflect likely voting senarios. The traditional is much more closer to realistic voting numbers.

ferrari2001

Huh? Every poll ever conducted (save for the abysmally laughable Zogby Interactive "polls") is conducted by phone.

[QUOTE="ferrari2001"]

no it's not the first poll is based off of Phone surveys, which sorry to say are not very accurate and do not reflect likely voting senarios. The traditional is much more closer to realistic voting numbers.

GabuEx

Huh? Every poll ever conducted (save for the abysmally laughable Zogby Interactive "polls") is conducted by phone.

the traditional polls also include research and past voting records and attendence to determine what the voting may look like, it's much more accurate. Over the phone people can lie, biased people can be called, different locations can yield different results, and it's based off a fairly small caller list. only 10,000 people or so. thats why there is always a % error on them and it's usually larger than the 3-4% they say it is.

[QUOTE="Theokhoth"]You ARE aware that that's a hypothetical based on "likely traditional voters," right? Right now, Obama's actual lead is seven points.ferrari2001

no it's not the first poll is based off of Phone surveys, which sorry to say are not very accurate and do not reflect likely voting senarios. The traditional is much more closer to realistic voting numbers.

how is voting by phone not accurate?

One word:

www.realclearpolitics.com

Dats because he's a commie socialist! Republicans are smart, they voted for this guy twice!

4 more years! Great Success!

[QUOTE="ferrari2001"]

[QUOTE="Theokhoth"]You ARE aware that that's a hypothetical based on "likely traditional voters," right? Right now, Obama's actual lead is seven points.TheBeast789

no it's not the first poll is based off of Phone surveys, which sorry to say are not very accurate and do not reflect likely voting senarios. The traditional is much more closer to realistic voting numbers.

how is voting by phone not accurate?

The polls actually don't give Obama enough credit. Most polls only call home phones, and many Obama voters have cell phones, so it shows a greater lead for McCain when really there is none.

the traditional polls also include research and past voting records and attendence to determine what the voting may look like, it's much more accurate. Over the phone people can lie, biased people can be called, different locations can yield different results, and it's based off a fairly small caller list. only 10,000 people or so. thats why there is always a % error on them and it's usually larger than the 3-4% they say it is.

ferrari2001

But all the information that they get for likely voter screens are retrieved from their sample. I don't see how that makes it suddenly much better. It's all based on phone interviews; the likely voter screens just contain a few more questions.

Dats because he's a commie socialist! Republicans are smart, they voted for this guy twice!

4 more years! Great Success!

MarloStanfield

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

[QUOTE="Trashface"][QUOTE="MarloStanfield"]

Dats because he's a commie socialist! Republicans are smart, they voted for this guy twice!

4 more years! Great Success!

Cpt_Meh

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

Lets not forget that Bush won more then several state by swing votes by making GAY marriage the main issue.. Not national security, not the economy, not education etc etc..

[QUOTE="Trashface"][QUOTE="MarloStanfield"]

Dats because he's a commie socialist! Republicans are smart, they voted for this guy twice!

4 more years! Great Success!

Cpt_Meh

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

And what are your problems with Bush? The war? You know he believed the same intelligence that the rest of the world believed right? Including dems who gave permission for the war. Is it because of how Iraq was initially handled? That was the fault of Rumsfeld. He resigned. Was it the economy? because that was already on a down swing when he inherited it? Was it how under him, there have been no more attacks since 911? Let's have some some substance to back up your claim that everyone who voted for Bush twice is stupid.

There's no reason for that to happen and none of the other tracking polls agree with that shift, so the only real conclusion to be made is that it was a bad daily sample, one of the 1-in-20 that all polls are subject to.GabuEx

So in other words, you disagree with this poll because it says something you don't like?

[QUOTE="Trashface"][QUOTE="MarloStanfield"]

Dats because he's a commie socialist! Republicans are smart, they voted for this guy twice!

4 more years! Great Success!

Cpt_Meh

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

Which is worse: Voting for a dumb candidate twice, or losing to that dumb candidate twice?;)

Lewis Black has this to say: "Where did you Democrats find Kerry? Losing in a presidential race against Bush after seeing Bush for four years is like finding a normal person to lose at the Special Olympics."

[QUOTE="Cpt_Meh"][QUOTE="Trashface"][QUOTE="MarloStanfield"]

Dats because he's a commie socialist! Republicans are smart, they voted for this guy twice!

4 more years! Great Success!

sSubZerOo

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

Lets not forget that Bush won more then several state by swing votes by making GAY marriage the main issue.. Not national security, not the economy, not education etc etc..

A lot of states had measures on their ballots concerning gay marriage. I think it was 11 of them I don't really remember though. So it was a significant issue based on that only in my view.

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

Trashface

yeah man, bush supporters like you are geniuses

as for being skewed by the media is that the socialist marxist liberal media or fair and balanced fox news?

And what are your problems with Bush?

Trashface

lmao

[QUOTE="GabuEx"]There's no reason for that to happen and none of the other tracking polls agree with that shift, so the only real conclusion to be made is that it was a bad daily sample, one of the 1-in-20 that all polls are subject to.mysterylobster

So in other words, you disagree with this poll because it says something you don't like?

No, I think this poll is an outlier because it's out of step with every other poll out there, which is exactly the same thing I said about the 1980 polls that showed Carter up three.

Nice try though.

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="GabuEx"]There's no reason for that to happen and none of the other tracking polls agree with that shift, so the only real conclusion to be made is that it was a bad daily sample, one of the 1-in-20 that all polls are subject to.GabuEx

So in other words, you disagree with this poll because it says something you don't like?

No, I think this poll is an outlier because it's out of step with every other poll out there, which is exactly the same thing I said about the 1980 polls that showed Carter up three.

Nice try though.

Actually there are polls other than that within the same 2-4 point range.

These polls are starting to get on my nerves... come to think of it this whole election is... why can't it just be over already?Obama is a head by 5-6 points in most other polls, so I'm not sure how much I believe the Gallup poll today.Cube_of_MooN

It will be over soon, and you shouldn't slam gallup because 1 poll doesn't look good for obama. Gallup is a very good pollster and one of the few I trust enough to refer to. Lot more realistic than the 12 point leads NYtimes and NBC try to pass off.

I also want this election over, the most tiring one ever. So sick of it and want it over now.

[QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"]These polls are starting to get on my nerves... come to think of it this whole election is... why can't it just be over already?Obama is a head by 5-6 points in most other polls, so I'm not sure how much I believe the Gallup poll today.MoonMarvel

It will be over soon, and you shouldn't slam gallup because 1 poll doesn't look good for obama. Gallup is a very good pollster and one of the few I trust enough to refer to. Lot more realistic than the 12 point leads NYtimes and NBC try to pass off.

I also want this election over, the most tiring one ever. So sick of it and want it over now.

[QUOTE="GabuEx"][QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="GabuEx"]There's no reason for that to happen and none of the other tracking polls agree with that shift, so the only real conclusion to be made is that it was a bad daily sample, one of the 1-in-20 that all polls are subject to.MoonMarvel

So in other words, you disagree with this poll because it says something you don't like?

No, I think this poll is an outlier because it's out of step with every other poll out there, which is exactly the same thing I said about the 1980 polls that showed Carter up three.

Nice try though.

Actually there are polls other than that within the same 2-4 point range.

One poll (taken over the course of an entire week) has him up 3, another 4. Every other poll is above that range. The average for the week was a lead of 6.7. Of the polls taken in the same time frame as this Gallup poll, Rasmussen has him up 5; Diageo has up 8, and applying Gallup's alternate likely voter screen to their own poll has him up 7.

That sounds a lot like a McCain-friendly outlier to me.

[QUOTE="MoonMarvel"]

[QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"]These polls are starting to get on my nerves... come to think of it this whole election is... why can't it just be over already?Obama is a head by 5-6 points in most other polls, so I'm not sure how much I believe the Gallup poll today.Cube_of_MooN

It will be over soon, and you shouldn't slam gallup because 1 poll doesn't look good for obama. Gallup is a very good pollster and one of the few I trust enough to refer to. Lot more realistic than the 12 point leads NYtimes and NBC try to pass off.

I also want this election over, the most tiring one ever. So sick of it and want it over now.

I want him to win too, but I find all these polls annoying. Gallup is usually good but there is always a margin of error. I am trying to ignore all polls and just want this over with so we can get on with the rest of our lives. This election has wore me out, I need a 4 year break just to even begin to care again. Can't wait till the 4th and this cycle is over with.

[QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"][QUOTE="MoonMarvel"]

[QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"]These polls are starting to get on my nerves... come to think of it this whole election is... why can't it just be over already?Obama is a head by 5-6 points in most other polls, so I'm not sure how much I believe the Gallup poll today.MoonMarvel

It will be over soon, and you shouldn't slam gallup because 1 poll doesn't look good for obama. Gallup is a very good pollster and one of the few I trust enough to refer to. Lot more realistic than the 12 point leads NYtimes and NBC try to pass off.

I also want this election over, the most tiring one ever. So sick of it and want it over now.

I want him to win too, but I find all these polls annoying. Gallup is usually good but there is always a margin of error. I am trying to ignore all polls and just want this over with so we can get on with the rest of our lives. This election has wore me out, I need a 4 year break just to even begin to care again. Can't wait till the 4th and this cycle is over with.

I want McCain to win, but I won't be too upset if Obama wins. If the Gallup is accurate, then I'd say McCain has a good chance. If the other polls are accurate, well then it'll be tough. But yeah, we've been dealing with this crap politically for too long now. Ijust want it all to end.

[QUOTE="MoonMarvel"][QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"][QUOTE="MoonMarvel"]

[QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"]These polls are starting to get on my nerves... come to think of it this whole election is... why can't it just be over already?Obama is a head by 5-6 points in most other polls, so I'm not sure how much I believe the Gallup poll today.Cube_of_MooN

It will be over soon, and you shouldn't slam gallup because 1 poll doesn't look good for obama. Gallup is a very good pollster and one of the few I trust enough to refer to. Lot more realistic than the 12 point leads NYtimes and NBC try to pass off.

I also want this election over, the most tiring one ever. So sick of it and want it over now.

I want him to win too, but I find all these polls annoying. Gallup is usually good but there is always a margin of error. I am trying to ignore all polls and just want this over with so we can get on with the rest of our lives. This election has wore me out, I need a 4 year break just to even begin to care again. Can't wait till the 4th and this cycle is over with.

I want McCain to win, but I won't be too upset if Obama wins. If the Gallup is accurate, then I'd say McCain has a good chance. If the other polls are accurate, well then it'll be tough. But yeah, we've been dealing with this crap politically for too long now. Ijust want it all to end.

I know, but I need 4. May not bother in 2010.

McCain does have a chance, I was watching the news and even the Dems admitted he could still pull it out. Only one way to find, but unlike you I REALLY don't want Obama. This election has felt like forever now..

The liberal media is slowly fading away from their BS polls and are actually showing more realistic polls. After all, how many hardcore conservatives would vote in a liberal poll?battlefront23

0. Thats why I try to ignore polls, you don't know who they asked.

[QUOTE="Trashface"]

Smarter than people who are blinded and skewed by the media.

MarloStanfield

yeah man, bush supporters like you are geniuses

as for being skewed by the media is that the socialist marxist liberal media or fair and balanced fox news?

And what are your problems with Bush?

Trashface

lmao

Fox is the closest thing to balanced on TV. Also, Bush is not my hero, but the media unjustly villified him. Apparently, Obama is glad people bought it so he could use it against McCain

The liberal media is slowly fading away from their BS polls and are actually showing more realistic polls. After all, how many hardcore conservatives would vote in a liberal poll?battlefront23

Of course they are. They were playing up such a huge lead for Obama to try and depress republicans and make them think they had no chance. It's psychological warfare. Submission via hopelessness. Now they have to begin to call it like it is to save their credibility when true numbers come.