Is Gingrich still in this?

If a few of the lesser Republicans drop out and back him, like Perry has done, he might have a chance, huh?

I'm not going to vote Republican either way, but it just seems strange that Perry is backing Gingrich, not Romney, right?

On a semi-related note, it would be really interesting to see what developed if Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich each won one of the first three primaries, and Ron Paul continued to pull in double digit results.mattbbpl

In that case, I think Florida would have paramount importance.

At the moment, Gingrich doesn't really have a solid organization. There are a number of states which he won't even appear on the ballot. Barring Santorum dropping soon, I do not see a path for him to win at this time. Perry was polling @ 4% in SC when he dropped -- and some of those will inevitably go to Santorum. Sure Gingrich stands a chance to win SC, but whether or not that will materialize into nationwide momentum remains to be seen.

At the moment, Gingrich doesn't really have a solid organization. There are a number of states which he won't even appear on the ballot. Barring Santorum dropping soon, I do not see a path for him to win at this time. Perry was polling @ 4% in SC when he dropped -- and some of those will inevitably go to Santorum. Sure Gingrich stands a chance to win SC, but whether or not that will materialize into nationwide momentum remains to be seen.

coolbeans90

Yeah. Romney still has most of the advantages, but SC could provide a window for Gingrich if Santorum drops out. If Gingrich wins SC, I don't see how Santorum can justify staying in.

Gingrich has way to many skeletons in his closet to win the nomination, much less the presidency.Person0

Gingrich has way to many skeletons in his closet to win the nomination, much less the presidency.Person0

Given that once they finalized the count in Iowa, Romney came in second place to Santorum, and Gingrich is tied in South Carolina, then yes I'd say he's still in it. If Gingrich ends up winning in SC, then the first three Republican caucuses/primaries would look like this: Santorum Romney Gingrich With Florida likely a Romney win, but that could change if Gingrich gets a post-SC bounce from his victory.nocoolnamejim

It would be very difficult, even with a SC win, for Gingrich to overcome ~ 20 point deficit in Florida. He'd still be in it if he wins, but not exactly in a comfortable position.

[QUOTE="Person0"]Gingrich has way to many skeletons in his closet to win the nomination, much less the presidency.nocoolnamejim

Favorable Unfavorable

26.0% 60.0%

favorability

watching republican debate going for ron paul even though im a democrat and wont be able to vote for him

gingrich might still be in it though

Beans and Person: Not saying he's got an easy path. There's a reason why Romney is considered the frontrunner. He's got the money advantage, the national polling advantage, electability, favorability, etc. But if there's one thing we've learned watching the Republican primaries this year it's that Republicans aren't excited about the idea of having Romney as their standard bearer. When you have everyone from Trump (?!?) to Bachmann (?!?!?!) to Cain (seriously...wtf?!) to Santorum (now you're just trolling me) and finally Gingrich surging up against Romney at the polls at various times it indicates a Republican party that REALLY doesn't want to nominate Romney and is looking for ANY alternative. Gingrich may end up being the last man standing to the Republican base. (Least if Paul never manages to get over the hump and has his surge into the lead. Seriously, how discouraging must it be to BOTH Romney and Paul that the party keeps looking at anyone but them?)nocoolnamejim

[QUOTE="nocoolnamejim"]Beans and Person: Not saying he's got an easy path. There's a reason why Romney is considered the frontrunner. He's got the money advantage, the national polling advantage, electability, favorability, etc. But if there's one thing we've learned watching the Republican primaries this year it's that Republicans aren't excited about the idea of having Romney as their standard bearer. When you have everyone from Trump (?!?) to Bachmann (?!?!?!) to Cain (seriously...wtf?!) to Santorum (now you're just trolling me) and finally Gingrich surging up against Romney at the polls at various times it indicates a Republican party that REALLY doesn't want to nominate Romney and is looking for ANY alternative. Gingrich may end up being the last man standing to the Republican base. (Least if Paul never manages to get over the hump and has his surge into the lead. Seriously, how discouraging must it be to BOTH Romney and Paul that the party keeps looking at anyone but them?)Person0

I question whether or not Romney's quite as electable as his current poll numbers against Obama show. Dems have mostly kept their powder dry on issues like the Bain thing, his taxes, flip-flopping, etc. Even in a bad economy, Romney typically polls about even against Obama or a couple of points behind.

That's before Democrats have really started hitting Romney. Look at how much damage the Bain issue has done to Romney in South Carolina, in a REPUBLICAN primary, in a very short amount of time.

Now imagine Democrats having hundreds of millions of dollars to hit Romney on things like that over the course of eight months or so in a general election where Independents and Democrats are tuning in.

I think Romney's current poll numbers are softer than they appear.

[QUOTE="nocoolnamejim"]Beans and Person: Not saying he's got an easy path. There's a reason why Romney is considered the frontrunner. He's got the money advantage, the national polling advantage, electability, favorability, etc. But if there's one thing we've learned watching the Republican primaries this year it's that Republicans aren't excited about the idea of having Romney as their standard bearer. When you have everyone from Trump (?!?) to Bachmann (?!?!?!) to Cain (seriously...wtf?!) to Santorum (now you're just trolling me) and finally Gingrich surging up against Romney at the polls at various times it indicates a Republican party that REALLY doesn't want to nominate Romney and is looking for ANY alternative. Gingrich may end up being the last man standing to the Republican base. (Least if Paul never manages to get over the hump and has his surge into the lead. Seriously, how discouraging must it be to BOTH Romney and Paul that the party keeps looking at anyone but them?)Person0

I think Romney's current poll numbers are softer than they appear.

nocoolnamejim

[QUOTE="Person0"]

[QUOTE="nocoolnamejim"]Beans and Person: Not saying he's got an easy path. There's a reason why Romney is considered the frontrunner. He's got the money advantage, the national polling advantage, electability, favorability, etc. But if there's one thing we've learned watching the Republican primaries this year it's that Republicans aren't excited about the idea of having Romney as their standard bearer. When you have everyone from Trump (?!?) to Bachmann (?!?!?!) to Cain (seriously...wtf?!) to Santorum (now you're just trolling me) and finally Gingrich surging up against Romney at the polls at various times it indicates a Republican party that REALLY doesn't want to nominate Romney and is looking for ANY alternative. Gingrich may end up being the last man standing to the Republican base. (Least if Paul never manages to get over the hump and has his surge into the lead. Seriously, how discouraging must it be to BOTH Romney and Paul that the party keeps looking at anyone but them?)nocoolnamejim

I question whether or not Romney's quite as electable as his current poll numbers against Obama show. Dems have mostly kept their powder dry on issues like the Bain thing, his taxes, flip-flopping, etc. Even in a bad economy, Romney typically polls about even against Obama or a couple of points behind.

That's before Democrats have really started hitting Romney. Look at how much damage the Bain issue has done to Romney in South Carolina, in a REPUBLICAN primary, in a very short amount of time.

Now imagine Democrats having hundreds of millions of dollars to hit Romney on things like that over the course of eight months or so in a general election where Independents and Democrats are tuning in.

I think Romney's current poll numbers are softer than they appear.

That's before Democrats have really started hitting Romney. Look at how much damage the Bain issue has done to Romney in South Carolina, in a REPUBLICAN primary, in a very short amount of time.

nocoolnamejim

Eh, Romney hasn't dropped in SC at all, really. Gingrich has been gaining -- largely from Santorum and Perry.

Also, I think this is highly relevant.

I don't see how anyone can say that Romney is a tougher challenge for Obama than Gingrich. Sure Romney's got the nice outward persona going for him, but that's about it. If he gets the candidacy, Obama's camp is going to scream Romney-care all the way to the election. The bottom line is that Romney is a moderate. And moderates don't win elections. Gingrich on the other hand has a more than probable chance of winning against Obama in my opinion. First of all, he's about the only Republican candidate right now who looks like he knows what he's doing in these debates. Secondly, his plan to challenge Obama to the Lincoln-Douglas style debates and then follow him everywhere on the campaign trail is nothing short of brilliant. I'm not necessarily sure that I'd vote for him, but I sure as heck think he's got a good chance against Obama. Whether he can get that far though remains to be seen. If he takes SC, than I think he's got a good chance even if Romney takes Florida which he probably will.

I don't see how anyone can say that Romney is a tougher challenge for Obama than Gingrich. Sure Romney's got the nice outward persona going for him, but that's about it.

KH-mixerX

He has numbers. People HATE Gingrich. They consider Romney tolerable.

[QUOTE="KH-mixerX"]

I don't see how anyone can say that Romney is a tougher challenge for Obama than Gingrich. Sure Romney's got the nice outward persona going for him, but that's about it.

coolbeans90

He has numbers. People HATE Gingrich. They consider Romney tolerable.

People don't "HATE" Gingrich. And numbers change daily. Romney's also a lighweight compared to Gingrich when it comes to debating. I might be alone on this, but I genuinely believe that he doesn't have as good of a shot at winning against Obama as Gingrich does.

At the moment, Gingrich doesn't really have a solid organization. There are a number of states which he won't even appear on the ballot. Barring Santorum dropping soon, I do not see a path for him to win at this time. Perry was polling @ 4% in SC when he dropped -- and some of those will inevitably go to Santorum. Sure Gingrich stands a chance to win SC, but whether or not that will materialize into nationwide momentum remains to be seen.

coolbeans90

I agree with basically everything in this post.

I think it also highly relevant that this trend does not seem to have carried over into Florida, although that could yet change.

Gingrich is NOT still inthis. Please move along.

The only reason Newt is still in it is because of a lack of quality in the other candidates.

The only reason Newt is still in it is because of a lack of quality in the other Republican candidates.

sonicare

Fixed.

[QUOTE="sonicare"]

The only reason Newt is still in it is because of a lack of quality in the other Republican candidates.

Johnny_Rock

Fixed.

[QUOTE="Johnny_Rock"]

[QUOTE="sonicare"]

The only reason Newt is still in it is because of a lack of quality in the other Republican candidates.

sonicare

Fixed.

Sorry. I know. I just had to.

People don't "HATE" Gingrich. And numbers change daily. Romney's also a lighweight compared to Gingrich when it comes to debating. I might be alone on this, but I genuinely believe that he doesn't have as good of a shot at winning against Obama as Gingrich does.

KH-mixerX

Yes, they do. He is heavily disliked both within the party and the general electorate.

Gingrich will be in it until he marries it.

[QUOTE="KH-mixerX"]

People don't "HATE" Gingrich. And numbers change daily. Romney's also a lighweight compared to Gingrich when it comes to debating. I might be alone on this, but I genuinely believe that he doesn't have as good of a shot at winning against Obama as Gingrich does.

coolbeans90

Yes, they do. He is heavily disliked both within the party and the general electorate.

Okay...

If he gets the candidacy, Obama's camp is going to scream Romney-care all the way to the election. The bottom line is that Romney is a moderate. And moderates don't win elections.

KH-mixerX

Moderates do win elections, and are generally considered more electable candidates. Hence why candidates almost always gravitate towards the center during an election.

As for Obama screaming Romneycare, that really doesn't make any sense. Can you explain?

I don't think that he Gingrich is still in it.

Also it wouldn't make sense for Perry to endorse Romney since people flocked to him because he wasn't Romney.

[QUOTE="KH-mixerX"]

If he gets the candidacy, Obama's camp is going to scream Romney-care all the way to the election. The bottom line is that Romney is a moderate. And moderates don't win elections.

chessmaster1989

Moderates do win elections, and are generally considered more electable candidates. Hence why candidates almost always gravitate towards the center during an election.

As for Obama screaming Romneycare, that really doesn't make any sense. Can you explain?

In other words, his record as Mass. Governor doesn't exactly follow the Republican party line. Romney-care is just one example. Healthcare is a hot button issue that's obviously going to be focused on during the election. Many Republicans want it Obama-Care to be repealed. Who's to say that's going to happen if Romney is the candidate considering the fact that he supported a very similar system of healthcare in Mass.That's extremely exploitable when it comes to a one on one race to the White House. And no, moderates generally don't win elections. It's the exact reason why people like John McCain have failed in their campaigns.

Realistically, the only guy who has a decent chance at beating Obama is Romney. The republican party would do well to support him, if they want a republican president in office. Otherwise, there's like a 99.9% that it's going to be Obama. And Ron Paul will never be president, so forget about him.

[QUOTE="chessmaster1989"]

[QUOTE="KH-mixerX"]

If he gets the candidacy, Obama's camp is going to scream Romney-care all the way to the election. The bottom line is that Romney is a moderate. And moderates don't win elections.

KH-mixerX

Moderates do win elections, and are generally considered more electable candidates. Hence why candidates almost always gravitate towards the center during an election.

As for Obama screaming Romneycare, that really doesn't make any sense. Can you explain?

In other words, his record as Mass. Governor doesn't exactly follow the Republican party line. Romney-care is just one example. Healthcare is a hot button issue that's obviously going to be focused on during the election. Many Republicans want it Obama-Care to be repealed. Who's to say that's going to happen if Romney is the candidate considering the fact that he supported a very similar system of healthcare in Mass.That's extremely exploitable when it comes to a one on one race to the White House. And no, moderates generally don't win elections. It's the exact reason why people like John McCain have failed in their campaigns.

But the one he lost to was a moderate, and a big part of why McCain lost was Sarah Palin...

I think I misinterpreted your original statement. I thought by "screaming Romneycare" you meant that Obama would be criticizing it, in the way that the Republican primary candidates have been. But yes, I do agree that he will be linking Romneycare to his healthcare bill.

If a few of the lesser Republicans drop out and back him, like Perry has done, he might have a chance, huh?

I'm not going to vote Republican either way, but it just seems strange that Perry is backing Gingrich, not Romney, right?

Franklinstein

If Santorum drops out of the race before the primary, all those votes will go to Gingrich, no question about it.

It's not really strange that Perry endorsed Gingrich. They've all been(him, Santorum and Gingrich) going after Romney pretty hard. Santorum definitely won't endorse Romney.

I WANT HIM OUT OMG... I thought he would slither away once his true nature was revealed wtf? Do Republicans hate Romney that much? President Obama has a much better shot against Gingrich why are they voting for him... More yet why did they applaud his veiled racism in the debate?Banjo_Kongfooie

[QUOTE="KH-mixerX"]

[QUOTE="chessmaster1989"]

Moderates do win elections, and are generally considered more electable candidates. Hence why candidates almost always gravitate towards the center during an election.

As for Obama screaming Romneycare, that really doesn't make any sense. Can you explain?

chessmaster1989

In other words, his record as Mass. Governor doesn't exactly follow the Republican party line. Romney-care is just one example. Healthcare is a hot button issue that's obviously going to be focused on during the election. Many Republicans want it Obama-Care to be repealed. Who's to say that's going to happen if Romney is the candidate considering the fact that he supported a very similar system of healthcare in Mass.That's extremely exploitable when it comes to a one on one race to the White House. And no, moderates generally don't win elections. It's the exact reason why people like John McCain have failed in their campaigns.

But the one he lost to was a moderate, and a big part of why McCain lost was Sarah Palin...

I think I misinterpreted your original statement. I thought by "screaming Romneycare" you meant that Obama would be criticizing it, in the way that the Republican primary candidates have been. But yes, I do agree that he will be linking Romneycare to his healthcare bill.

I think Sarah Palin's impact on the 2008 election was extremely overstated. And also, Obama being a moderate doesn't have anything to do with waht I'm saying. If he would've been more hardcore in his Republican stance, I'm of the opinion that he would've emerged victorious in the end. Although I do think the media had a lot to do with why Obama won.

[QUOTE="chessmaster1989"]

[QUOTE="KH-mixerX"]

In other words, his record as Mass. Governor doesn't exactly follow the Republican party line. Romney-care is just one example. Healthcare is a hot button issue that's obviously going to be focused on during the election. Many Republicans want it Obama-Care to be repealed. Who's to say that's going to happen if Romney is the candidate considering the fact that he supported a very similar system of healthcare in Mass.That's extremely exploitable when it comes to a one on one race to the White House. And no, moderates generally don't win elections. It's the exact reason why people like John McCain have failed in their campaigns.

KH-mixerX

But the one he lost to was a moderate, and a big part of why McCain lost was Sarah Palin...

I think I misinterpreted your original statement. I thought by "screaming Romneycare" you meant that Obama would be criticizing it, in the way that the Republican primary candidates have been. But yes, I do agree that he will be linking Romneycare to his healthcare bill.

I think Sarah Palin's impact on the 2008 election was extremely overstated. And also, Obama being a moderate doesn't have anything to do with waht I'm saying. If he would've been more hardcore in his Republican stance, I'm of the opinion that he would've emerged victorious in the end. Although I do think the media had a lot to do with why Obama won.

w/e agree to disagree. I personally believe that if McCain hadn't chosen Palin and had run a more centrist campaign, he at least would not have lost by so much.

And I hope you're not one of those people who goes on about the "liberal media."