Let's Play a Game!

Okay, it's not really a game, but suppose that I present you with three doors. Behind ONE of the three doors is a car, with one goat behind each of the other two doors. I know whats behind each door and now you get to choose one door. After you choose a door, I'll proceed to open a door with a goat behind it (NOT THE DOOR YOU CHOSE). Now I offer you the chance to switch your door of choice. Assuming that you want the CAR, should you switch or should you not?

I'd take the goat, cell it and buy some records.Recycleation

What do you intend to do with a battery and a goat and how will you get reccords out of it??

...what?Cube_of_MooN

What don't you understand?

[QUOTE="Cube_of_MooN"]...what?Aznsilvrboy

What don't you understand?

After re-reading it I think I get it now. I'd stick with my choice.

[QUOTE="Recycleation"]I'd take the goat, cell it and buy some records.mattyftm

What do you intend to do with a battery and a goat and how will you get reccords out of it??

Wow man, you guys are totally missing the point. You wanting the goat is NOT the premise of the question...:|Aznsilvrboy

Its the OT forum, what do you expect... :|

...what?Cube_of_MooN

That depends....... what kind of car?SteveXLR

A really nice one.

[QUOTE="SteveXLR"]That depends....... what kind of car?Aznsilvrboy

A really nice one.

Hmmmmmmm....... not sure! BTW wut is the point of this?

[QUOTE="Aznsilvrboy"]

[QUOTE="SteveXLR"]That depends....... what kind of car?SteveXLR

A really nice one.

Hmmmmmmm....... not sure! BTW wut is the point of this?

I will reveal the point after more people have stated their choices.

Explanation: Suppose that you pick the door with Goat 1 behind it. Goat 2 is revealed to you. Switching gets you the car. Now suppose you pick the door with Goat 2 behind it, Goat 1 is revealed and switching once again brings success. However, choosing the car results in either Goat 1 or 2 being revealed and switching will mean you will end up with whichever Goat has not been revealed. But there is only a 1/3 chance of this happening, whereas Success has a 2/3 chance.

Now suppose that you do not switch. Your chance of winning the car is 1/3, as there are 3 doors. 1 has a car behind it, 2 have goats.

Allways stick to your first choice. It makes good sense.mattyftm

Yeah even when it's something as simple as taking a test and then thinking "I guess I should change my answer" and then you get it wrong when you were right the first time.

Anyway, when there's a 50 50 chance and it's just luck, I'd vote "it doesn't matter" if polls still worked.

no cause chances are the one u picked first was the one with the car!Grey-Jack

No. Chances are it isn't.

[QUOTE="mattyftm"]Allways stick to your first choice. It makes good sense.ElArab

Yeah even when it's something as simple as taking a test and then thinking "I guess I should change my answer" and then you get it wrong when you were right the first time.

Anyway, when there's a 50 50 chance and it's just luck, I'd vote "it doesn't matter" if polls still worked.

It's not a 50/50 chance...

Explanation: Suppose that you pick the door with Goat 1 behind it. Goat 2 is revealed to you. Switching gets you the car. Now suppose you pick the door with Goat 2 behind it, Goat 1 is revealed and switching once again brings success. However, choosing the car results in either Goat 1 or 2 being revealed and switching will mean you will end up with whichever Goat has not been revealed. But there is only a 1/3 chance of this happening, whereas Success has a 2/3 chance.

Now suppose that you do not switch. Your chance of winning the car is 1/3, as there are 3 doors. 1 has a car behind it, 2 have goats.

Salvy41

Correct...wow only one person in the whole thread got it right. Way to go OT...:|

Link for non believers. Switching is always better.

http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html