While fighting has been bogged down on the eastern front for many months, the western fronts of the Libyan Civil War, centered around the Nafusa Mountains and the city of Misrata have recently seen a lot of movement. Already, the Nafusa Mountain rebels have descended from their stronghold onto the coastal road to Tripoli. They are now about 30 miles from the capital, with fighting now centered around the major oil port of Az-Zawiyah.
This is significant not only because fighting is getting much closer to the capital, but also because this means that the coastal road from Tripoli to Tunisia, a major supply route, is now cut for Gaddafi. It also leaves a sizeable number of Pro-Gaddafi troops trapped in a pocket between the Tunisian border and rebel held territory. Another supply route going from Algeria has also been cut from the south, leaving Tripoli and 5 other adjacent strongholds under partial siege. This comes as rebels seize control of the Az-Zawiyah oil refinery, the only functioning one with any proximity to the capital. As you know, oil and gasoline is of particular importance in a large country like Libya, especially in conducting mechanized blitzkrieg warfare across largely open desert terrain (not that this can be done easily anyway, with NATO air supremacy).
With that oil refinery now cut, the two primary supply lines (including for gasoline) also cut, and only about 30 miles (~50 kilometers) standing between rebels and the capital, does this finally spell endgame for Gaddafi? Or will he find ways to push the rebels back, or at least gain enough advantage to broker a settlement keeping him in power? To me, the latter is looking less and less likely with each passing day. And although the rebels have not been known to necessarily maintain their advance, I think it's becoming clear that months of brutal fighting, economic sanctions, a partial sea blockade, and NATO airstrikes are beginning to really take their toll.
The only question I have is what will happen in Tripoli should the rebels make an advance on it. Support there might not be entirely forthcoming. A recently captured senior intelligence official claims that some 70% of Tripoli residents still support Gaddafi. No matter their number, he still likely has a large number of die hard supporters who will fight to the death. Anything less than a bloody fight for the city does not look likely. There is always the potential of just continuing to besiege the capital and hope to trigger a popular uprising, but that might not work either, and it could just also backfire and make Tripoli have even more hatred toward the opposition. And of course, negotiations can continue to end this peacefully. Gaddafi, despite his firebrand image, is said to be smart and a pragmatist, and he will know when he no longer has a way out. But in this case, will he negotiate an exit, or fight to the finish?
All I know is that this is the point where events should get very interesting. This war has had enough surprises, and before it is over, I will expect many more.
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