Obama, McCain in a dead heat going into final debate

Rasmussen currently has Obama leading 50% to McCain's 45%. Wait a second, though, don't go thinking this is a comfortable lead for Obama. If you look at the polls internals (as you should always do) you'll see "the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican." There's no way that likely voter Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6 percentage points, so the poll has a heavy oversampling bias towards the Democratic candidate. That means that in the real world, the race is actually much closer.

John McCain needs to seal the deal at the last debate. He must bring up shady characters from Obama's past, something voters can really understand. And he has got to point out the flaws in Obama's tax plan while offering a cohesive vision of his own. If he does this, then the presidency is his to lose.

Rasmussen currently has Obama leading 50% to McCain's 45%. Wait a second, though, don't go thinking this is a comfortable lead for Obama. If you look at the polls internals (as you should always do) you'll see "the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican." There's no way that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6 percentage points, so the poll has a heavy oversampling bias towards the Democratic candidate. That means that in the real world, the race is actually much closer.

John McCain needs to seal the deal at the last debate. He must bring up shady characters from Obama's past, something voters can really understand. And he has got to point out the flaws in Obama's tax plan while offering a cohesive vision of his own. If he does this, then the presidency is his to lose.

mysterylobster

I still love you sir.

If he did those things differently I actually think we'd be looking at McCain in the lead right now.johnnyv2003

I heard he just had a heart attack!?Wolf-avatar

[QUOTE="Wolf-avatar"]I heard he just had a heart attack!?Jandurin

Were you hear last night,if not than god you missed out on alot.

Rasmussen currently has Obama leading 50% to McCain's 45%. Wait a second, though, don't go thinking this is a comfortable lead for Obama. If you look at the polls internals (as you should always do) you'll see "the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican." There's no way that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6 percentage points, so the poll has a heavy oversampling bias towards the Democratic candidate. That means that in the real world, the race is actually much closer.

John McCain needs to seal the deal at the last debate. He must bring up shady characters from Obama's past, something voters can really understand. And he has got to point out the flaws in Obama's tax plan while offering a cohesive vision of his own. If he does this, then the presidency is his to lose.

mysterylobster

Sorry, REAL clear politics says otherwise. Obama's gota 7.7 lead. Jesus won't help you this time.

[QUOTE="Jandurin"][QUOTE="Wolf-avatar"]I heard he just had a heart attack!?Wolf-avatar

Were you hear last night,if not than god you missed out on alot.

There are more registered Democrats in the US... Of course they can be leading by more percentage points.MattUD1

Not all registered voters are LIKELY voters.

[QUOTE="Wolf-avatar"]

[QUOTE="Jandurin"][QUOTE="Wolf-avatar"]I heard he just had a heart attack!?Jandurin

Were you hear last night,if not than god you missed out on alot.

Go a couple of pages back till you see threads about heart attacks and bruised ribs,Read them all and you want stop laughing.

[QUOTE="MattUD1"]There are more registered Democrats in the US... Of course they can be leading by more percentage points.mysterylobster

Not all registered voters are LIKELY voters.

[QUOTE="MattUD1"]There are more registered Democrats in the US... Of course they can be leading by more percentage points.mysterylobster

Not all registered voters are LIKELY voters.

Gallop poll says otherwise.

http://voices.kansascity.com/node/2411

actually the stat about having a higher percentage of Democrats to Republicans is correct, because there are more registered democrats than republicans...but republicans do have a higher vote turnout so it all evens out in the end...as someone who's stayed neutral towards both candidates, Obama deserves the election more just from the sense that he's led a better campaign. Choosing Palin, his attacks towards Obama have all led to McCain's own demise. If he did those things differently I actually think we'd be looking at McCain in the lead right now.johnnyv2003

In fairness, Obama has made a lot of attacks on McCain as well. The media/outspoken members of the population are just so busy loving him that they never point it out.

[QUOTE="johnnyv2003"]actually the stat about having a higher percentage of Democrats to Republicans is correct, because there are more registered democrats than republicans...but republicans do have a higher vote turnout so it all evens out in the end...as someone who's stayed neutral towards both candidates, Obama deserves the election more just from the sense that he's led a better campaign. Choosing Palin, his attacks towards Obama have all led to McCain's own demise. If he did those things differently I actually think we'd be looking at McCain in the lead right now.Thyeora

In fairness, Obama has made a lot of attacks on McCain as well. The media/outspoken members of the population are just so busy loving him that they never point it out.

that's true as well but most of the attacks from Obama have been about policies/boring things the brainwashed mainstream viewers gander at.

[QUOTE="Thyeora"]

[QUOTE="johnnyv2003"]actually the stat about having a higher percentage of Democrats to Republicans is correct, because there are more registered democrats than republicans...but republicans do have a higher vote turnout so it all evens out in the end...as someone who's stayed neutral towards both candidates, Obama deserves the election more just from the sense that he's led a better campaign. Choosing Palin, his attacks towards Obama have all led to McCain's own demise. If he did those things differently I actually think we'd be looking at McCain in the lead right now.johnnyv2003

In fairness, Obama has made a lot of attacks on McCain as well. The media/outspoken members of the population are just so busy loving him that they never point it out.

that's true as well but most of the attacks from Obama have been about policies/boring things the brainwashed mainstream viewers gander at.

Not all of it. A decent amount of his platform is "Bush ruined our country. McCain is like Bush. I'm not, so vote for me." I would consider that an attack. There are policies in his platform but that is a point that he brings up in regularly in debate.

Not all of it. A decent amount of his platform is "Bush ruined our country. McCain is like Bush. I'm not, so vote for me." I would consider that an attack. There are policies in his platform but that is a point that he brings up in regularly in debate.Thyeora

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="MattUD1"]There are more registered Democrats in the US... Of course they can be leading by more percentage points.MattUD1

Not all registered voters are LIKELY voters.

The poll does not track just registered voters; rather, it tracks likely voters. That's why your statement was false.

McCain should just keep it clean and talk about the important issues.

It will back fire on McCain if he brings up BS from the past ( Ayers)

It's like saying John McCain is a gun- and drug-runner because he befriended Oliver North.

I'm still amazed that Sarah Palin "exposed our Democratic presidential contender for consorting with a known terrorist." Lol.

She should be more concerned about her husband's ties to an Alaskan secessionist group. Just this year, Palin herself addressed the group and told them to "keep up the good work."

just stick to the real issues at hand.

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

Rasmussen currently has Obama leading 50% to McCain's 45%. Wait a second, though, don't go thinking this is a comfortable lead for Obama. If you look at the polls internals (as you should always do) you'll see "the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican." There's no way that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6 percentage points, so the poll has a heavy oversampling bias towards the Democratic candidate. That means that in the real world, the race is actually much closer.

John McCain needs to seal the deal at the last debate. He must bring up shady characters from Obama's past, something voters can really understand. And he has got to point out the flaws in Obama's tax plan while offering a cohesive vision of his own. If he does this, then the presidency is his to lose.

xMOBSTER23x

Sorry, REAL clear politics says otherwise. Obama's gota 7.7 lead. Jesus won't help you this time.

First of all, cheap attacks on my religion have no place here. I was appealing to reason in my post, not divine intervention.

Also, take a look internals of the polls RCP uses, and you'll see the same oversampling trends. Until they realize that likely voters fall evenly along party lines (as past elections have shown), then their polls will never reflect the truth. This is the same bias that gave Kerry a false sense of security on election day.

Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.TBoogy

Actually, most of the excitement this election seems to be focused on Sarah Palin and the Republicans. The VP debates had more viewers than the debate between the Presidential nominees. Do you think they were tuning in to see Plugs?

Polls are also mostly conducted over land lines only. In my opinion, that means that the younger voters... that is, the crowd who have cell phones only are not being polled.

With that in mind, it is blatantly obvious that Obama has reached the younger voters far more than McCain. So I don't think the final vote will even be as close as these polls suggest.
septemberluc

The same was said in 2004, and it didn't affect the final votes at all.

[QUOTE="xMOBSTER23x"][QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

Rasmussen currently has Obama leading 50% to McCain's 45%. Wait a second, though, don't go thinking this is a comfortable lead for Obama. If you look at the polls internals (as you should always do) you'll see "the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican." There's no way that Democrats outnumber Republicans by 6 percentage points, so the poll has a heavy oversampling bias towards the Democratic candidate. That means that in the real world, the race is actually much closer.

John McCain needs to seal the deal at the last debate. He must bring up shady characters from Obama's past, something voters can really understand. And he has got to point out the flaws in Obama's tax plan while offering a cohesive vision of his own. If he does this, then the presidency is his to lose.

mysterylobster

Sorry, REAL clear politics says otherwise. Obama's gota 7.7 lead. Jesus won't help you this time.

First of all, cheap attacks on my religion have no place here. I was appealing to reason in my post, not divine intervention.

Also, take a look internals of the polls RCP uses, and you'll see the same oversampling trends. Until they realize that likely voters fall evenly along party lines (as past elections have shown), then their polls will never reflect the truth. This is the same bias that gave Kerry a false sense of security on election day.

Lame. Real Clear Politics had Bush winning in almost every poll and their final electoral college was very accurate. You're using false hope to try to get the people here to think McCain is going to win when he's not. All you have left is divine intervention, and Jesus isn't going to help you this time.

[QUOTE="TBoogy"]Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.mysterylobster

Actually, most of the excitement this election seems to be focused on Sarah Palin and the Republicans. The VP debates had more viewers than the debate between the Presidential nominees. Do you think they were tuning in to see Plugs?

Polls are also mostly conducted over land lines only. In my opinion, that means that the younger voters... that is, the crowd who have cell phones only are not being polled.

With that in mind, it is blatantly obvious that Obama has reached the younger voters far more than McCain. So I don't think the final vote will even be as close as these polls suggest.
septemberluc

The same was said in 2004, and it didn't affect the final votes at all.

That was not said in 2004, Bush was predicted to win.

Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.TBoogy

Obama has said at least twice that he was surprised that mccain did not make his association arguements to his face. so obviously he has an answer and a question for mccain. obama is virtually daring mccain to bring it up. he will be afraid to try. obama will win for the 3rd straight debate.TBoogy

What can he say? It's on the record that he associated with an unrepentant terrorist.

[QUOTE="TBoogy"]Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.FragStains

I heard from an ACORN volunteer that Democrats are just dying to vote in this election.

[QUOTE="FragStains"][QUOTE="TBoogy"]Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.mysterylobster

I heard from an ACORN volunteer that Democrats are just dying to vote in this election.

I heard from a Christian that Obama is the Antichrist!

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="FragStains"][QUOTE="TBoogy"]Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.xMOBSTER23x

I heard from an ACORN volunteer that Democrats are just dying to vote in this election.

I heard from a Christian that Obama is the Antichrist!

[QUOTE="xMOBSTER23x"][QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="FragStains"][QUOTE="TBoogy"]Anyone that thinks that democrats may not vote THIS year is nuts. there will be record turnout, just as there has been record fund raising and record registering. democrats havent been this excited in my lifetime.Jandurin

I heard from an ACORN volunteer that Democrats are just dying to vote in this election.

I heard from a Christian that Obama is the Antichrist!

What does that mean? I've looked up definitions and such, is it just a random statement that makes no sense?

[QUOTE="TBoogy"]Obama has said at least twice that he was surprised that mccain did not make his association arguements to his face. so obviously he has an answer and a question for mccain. obama is virtually daring mccain to bring it up. he will be afraid to try. obama will win for the 3rd straight debate.mysterylobster

What can he say? It's on the record that he associated with an unrepentant terrorist.

What does that mean? I've looked up definitions and such, is it just a random statement that makes no sense?

xMOBSTER23x

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="TBoogy"]Obama has said at least twice that he was surprised that mccain did not make his association arguements to his face. so obviously he has an answer and a question for mccain. obama is virtually daring mccain to bring it up. he will be afraid to try. obama will win for the 3rd straight debate.TBoogy

What can he say? It's on the record that he associated with an unrepentant terrorist.

Most people don't know what the Keating 5 was about, nor would they know that McCain was exonerated of all wrongdoing.

[QUOTE="TBoogy"][QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="TBoogy"]Obama has said at least twice that he was surprised that mccain did not make his association arguements to his face. so obviously he has an answer and a question for mccain. obama is virtually daring mccain to bring it up. he will be afraid to try. obama will win for the 3rd straight debate.FragStains

What can he say? It's on the record that he associated with an unrepentant terrorist.

Most people don't know what the Keating 5 was about, nor would they know that McCain was exonerated of all wrongdoing.

What was this scandal? Without googling, of course.

Most people don't know what the Keating 5 was about, nor would they know that McCain was exonerated of all wrongdoing.

Jandurin

...I'm not quite sure what that means, but it sounded good in my head.

It's hard to smear when your jar of peanut butter is empty....

...I'm not quite sure what that means, but it sounded good in my head.

FragStains

[QUOTE="FragStains"]It's hard to smear when your jar of peanut butter is empty....

...I'm not quite sure what that means, but it sounded good in my head.

Jandurin

Alas, I think we've gone a tad bit off-topic.

mmmmm off-topic fluffernutterJandurin

[QUOTE="Jandurin"]mmmmm off-topic fluffernutterFragStains

Frag, my understanding is that it involved the savings and loan crisis (correct me if not) and i know he was aquitted (obviously, or he would not be here). But i mostly agree with you (even if using me as a "typical" anything usually backfires). I dont know all the details, and most would know even less, but not being found guilty does not mean you are innocent. being even remotely tied to a financial scandal in the middle of a current bailout must be scary for mccain.TBoogy

[QUOTE="xMOBSTER23x"]

What does that mean? I've looked up definitions and such, is it just a random statement that makes no sense?

Jandurin

teh internets are so weird sometimes..

[QUOTE="TBoogy"]Frag, my understanding is that it involved the savings and loan crisis (correct me if not) and i know he was aquitted (obviously, or he would not be here). But i mostly agree with you (even if using me as a "typical" anything usually backfires). I dont know all the details, and most would know even less, but not being found guilty does not mean you are innocent. being even remotely tied to a financial scandal in the middle of a current bailout must be scary for mccain.FragStains