please help allmighty GS, this frustrates me

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whoopy2008

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#1 whoopy2008
Member since 2008 • 198 Posts

hey,


imagine......

you have coin (2 sides)

so, the chance that you will throw head is 50%.

so, theoreticly the chance of throwing heads 10 times in a row is 50% since the previous throw has nothing to do with your throw.

Am I correct or am I missing something ?

thank you

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rawsavon

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#2 rawsavon
Member since 2004 • 40001 Posts
FALSE 50% each time =.5 x .5 x .5 (10 times over)
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Dante2710

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#3 Dante2710
Member since 2005 • 63164 Posts
[QUOTE="rawsavon"]FALSE 50% each time =.5 x .5 x .5 (10 times over)

pretty much this ^
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deactivated-5a79221380856

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#4 deactivated-5a79221380856
Member since 2007 • 13125 Posts
Rawsavon is correct. It would be 0.09765625%.
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whoopy2008

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#5 whoopy2008
Member since 2008 • 198 Posts

so you think the odds are 0,00048828125 ?

but how ?

if I throw the coin, and it hits heads.

the chance I throw heads next time is just as big as before, right ?

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jimmyjammer69

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#6 jimmyjammer69
Member since 2008 • 12239 Posts
After each throw, the odds of you throwing heads on your next are 50:50 but the odds of ten heads in a row certainly are not.
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whoopy2008

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#7 whoopy2008
Member since 2008 • 198 Posts

After each throw, the odds of you throwing heads on your next are 50:50 but the odds of ten heads in a row certainly are not.jimmyjammer69

so, you think that the odds that you throw 2 times heads is 25% ?

this seems false to me since the first throw has no influence on the second throw, the odds should stay 50% ?

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194197844077667059316682358889

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#8 194197844077667059316682358889
Member since 2003 • 49173 Posts

hey,

imagine......

you have coin (2 sides)

so, the chance that you will throw head is 50%.

so, theoreticly the chance of throwing heads 10 times in a row is 50% since the previous throw has nothing to do with your throw.

Am I correct or am I missing something ?

thank you

whoopy2008
You are conflating the odds of throw #10 coming up heads with the very different odds of that happening 10 consecutive times. Look at it this way, there are 2^10 possible combinations of outcomes from 10 coin tosses in a row, or 1024. Only one of those is 10 heads results in a row, and the probabilities are equally distributed among those 10.
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Wolls

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#9 Wolls
Member since 2005 • 19119 Posts

hey,


imagine......

you have coin (2 sides)

so, the chance that you will throw head is 50%.

so, theoreticly the chance of throwing heads 10 times in a row is 50% since the previous throw has nothing to do with your throw.

Am I correct or am I missing something ?

thank you

whoopy2008

no dude you mean that if after 9 throws of heads then the chances of the 10th throw would still be 50/50

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smc91352

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#10 smc91352
Member since 2009 • 7786 Posts

there are 2^10 (1024) outcomes...only 1 is 10 heads...you have a 1 in 1024 (0.09765625%) chance

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GrandJury

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#11 GrandJury
Member since 2009 • 15396 Posts
Why would you even be putting this much thought into flipping a coin?
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whoopy2008

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#12 whoopy2008
Member since 2008 • 198 Posts

[QUOTE="whoopy2008"]

hey,


imagine......

you have coin (2 sides)

so, the chance that you will throw head is 50%.

so, theoreticly the chance of throwing heads 10 times in a row is 50% since the previous throw has nothing to do with your throw.

Am I correct or am I missing something ?

thank you

Wolls

no dude you mean that if after 9 throws of heads then the chances of the 10th throw would still be 50/50

yes that's what I'm saying, that the odds of throwing 10 times heads should be 50% since you start everytime with a new throw.

the chance of throwing the second time heads is just as much as the first time since you start over, right ?

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horgen

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#13 horgen  Moderator
Member since 2006 • 127731 Posts

so you think the odds are 0,00048828125 ?

but how ?

if I throw the coin, and it hits heads.

the chance I throw heads next time is just as big as before, right ?

whoopy2008
Because you have a 50% chance each time, and you want to land on head 10 times in a row. Thus it becomes 0.5^10
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whoopy2008

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#14 whoopy2008
Member since 2008 • 198 Posts

there are 2^10 (1024) outcomes...only 1 is 10 heads...you have a 0.0009765625% chance

smc91352

now this sounds like logic to me, thanks alot mate.

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194197844077667059316682358889

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#15 194197844077667059316682358889
Member since 2003 • 49173 Posts

there are 2^10 (1024) outcomes...only 1 is 10 heads...you have a 0.0009765625% chance

smc91352
You forgot to move the decimal to make it a percentage ;) 0.09765625%
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#16 lightleggy
Member since 2008 • 16090 Posts

hey,


imagine......

you have coin (2 sides)

so, the chance that you will throw head is 50%.

so, theoreticly the chance of throwing heads 10 times in a row is 50% since the previous throw has nothing to do with your throw.

Am I correct or am I missing something ?

thank you

whoopy2008

over 9000

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ghoklebutter

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#17 ghoklebutter
Member since 2007 • 19327 Posts

Divide by zero.

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clyde46

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#18 clyde46
Member since 2005 • 49061 Posts

my head hurts now:P

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Wolls

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#19 Wolls
Member since 2005 • 19119 Posts

[QUOTE="Wolls"]

[QUOTE="whoopy2008"]

hey,


imagine......

you have coin (2 sides)

so, the chance that you will throw head is 50%.

so, theoreticly the chance of throwing heads 10 times in a row is 50% since the previous throw has nothing to do with your throw.

Am I correct or am I missing something ?

thank you

whoopy2008

no dude you mean that if after 9 throws of heads then the chances of the 10th throw would still be 50/50

yes that's what I'm saying, that the odds of throwing 10 times heads should be 50% since you start everytime with a new throw.

the chance of throwing the second time heads is just as much as the first time since you start over, right ?

No im saying that if you take each through as an individual the chances stay 50/50 for each through, but combined the chances of getting 10 heads in a row are 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5

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kulmiye

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#20 kulmiye
Member since 2004 • 12094 Posts
In each separate event there is a 50% chance you will get a head on each flip of a coin.
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gun-runner

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#21 gun-runner
Member since 2005 • 2030 Posts
The short answer in no... But I will be able to expound much more upon this subject once we learn more about theee proposed dark matter theories.
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curono

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#22 curono
Member since 2005 • 7722 Posts
POKER TO THE RESCUE: This problem is different. A deck of cards have 52 cards. There are four figures (hearts, spades, diamonds and clubs). So if you shuffle the deck and take 13 cards at random, you have 1/4 of the total cards of the deck. That means that if you want to get a card (lets say you hope that the card is in one of your 13 cards) you have 1/4 of chances of getting the card you want. However, if from those cards you wanted 2 cards (say an ace and a two of spades), your chances are less, and it becomes harder to do it. You may get one of the cards you want, but getting both of them is harder Now, imagine you shuffle your deck of 52 cards and take out at random 13 cards. What you want to get EVERY spade from the deck. That means that you only must get a spade, or else you would fail (yes, card fail). Chances, as you might have seen become exponentially smaller. That is because the rate of succeeding becomes smaller. Similar happens to the 10 times in a row throw a coin....
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rawsavon

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#23 rawsavon
Member since 2004 • 40001 Posts
To add more to this: they just did a study and proved the odds are not 50/50...it is more likely to land on the side that started up when you fliped it -they talked about it on PTI (a sports show...in relation to the coin flip before games)
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Luminouslight

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#24 Luminouslight
Member since 2007 • 6397 Posts

I understand how you are frustrated. Let me word a question. Lets say I were to flip a coin 9x and get heads every single time. What would the probability of the next one being heads?

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CrustyFrags

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#25 CrustyFrags
Member since 2009 • 43 Posts
lrn2probability
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CrustyFrags

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#26 CrustyFrags
Member since 2009 • 43 Posts
The short answer in no... But I will be able to expound much more upon this subject once we learn more about theee proposed dark matter theories.gun-runner
The chances of these proposed dark matter theories is 50% ... it either happens or dosn't LOL
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Arach666

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#27 Arach666
Member since 2009 • 23285 Posts

I understand how you are frustrated. Let me word a question. Lets say I were to flip a coin 9x and get heads every single time. What would the probability of the next one being heads?

Luminouslight
Exactly!
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194197844077667059316682358889

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#28 194197844077667059316682358889
Member since 2003 • 49173 Posts

I understand how you are frustrated. Let me word a question. Lets say I were to flip a coin 9x and get heads every single time. What would the probability of the next one being heads?

Luminouslight
50%; that is not what the TC is asking, though.
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unholymight

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#29 unholymight
Member since 2007 • 3378 Posts
FIREMEN TO THE RESCUE: This problem is different. A fireman, while attempting to save a stranded cat, knows that the cat has 50% of jumping either left or right when he grabs at it. However, this is per cat. The chance of him finding 10 cats that jump left in a row is less than 50%.
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#30 Ninja-Hippo
Member since 2008 • 23434 Posts
No - your chances will get successively worse with each flip of the coin.
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Dragoran123

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#31 Dragoran123
Member since 2009 • 874 Posts

I am in a state of confuzzlement.

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awesomeface

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#32 awesomeface
Member since 2007 • 3661 Posts

Your chances of getting heads 10 times in a row is 1/1024, not 1/2. You're adding when you should be multiplying.