So, will China's economy ever surpass the economy of the United States?

I remember my geography teacher last semester in college tell us that it is a mathematical certainty that a country with a population of 1.3 billion people will eventually surpass a country of 300 million people economically. Is that true? 

The only way China will surpass the US is if it continues to operate technocratic and quasi-technocratic principles.

In terms of G.D.P., yes, in a few years. Per capita, decades, if ever.

In what terms? Overall GDP doesn't mean sh*t when half of their population lives in poverty. Per Capita GDP is what really matters.Toxic-Seahorse

[QUOTE="Toxic-Seahorse"]In what terms? Overall GDP doesn't mean sh*t when half of their population lives in poverty. Per Capita GDP is what really matters.Bird_Killer

None of this shit really matters, you know. I'm not trying to downplay your question at all, but in the blink of an eye, 10,000 years will have passed. Everything will have passed on through hundreds of stages, and maybe even the human race will have passed on.

Maybe not.

The only way China will surpass the US is if it continues to operate technocratic and quasi-technocratic principles.

frannkzappa

What?! I thought China has already done this and all the economic crisis is due to that

At current growth rates around 2017 but growth rates can change. So possibly sooner or later than that but most likely by 2020. 2017 is the IMF estimate btw if you were wondering where I got the date from. More info in link.

http://www.ibtimes.com/oecd-report-says-chinas-economy-will-overtake-us-economy-2016-1146333

At current growth rates around 2017 but growth rates can change. So possibly sooner or later than that but most likely by 2020.

Strakha

At current growth rates around 2017 but growth rates can change. So possibly sooner or later than that but most likely by 2020. 2017 is the IMF estimate btw if you were wondering where I got the date from. More info in link.

http://www.ibtimes.com/oecd-report-says-chinas-economy-will-overtake-us-economy-2016-1146333

Strakha

[QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

The only way China will surpass the US is if it continues to operate technocratic and quasi-technocratic principles.

mmwmwmmwmwmm

China's economy is in many ways freer than the US, that's why factories can get away with paying their workers at tiny wages; the companies are not held back by environmental restrictions and they are free to rip off their competition.

Is this the type of "free market" you're clamoring for?

Depends. In pure GDP probably. China's GDP is soaring due to their government's relentless obsession for growing larger. That said they've created a bubble on top of unsustainable GDP growth. It will peak and then crash.

The USA and the rest of the west have slower, sustainable growth. Even during our harder timers we don't see a massive crash because of this. It's a much more healthy economic system.

[QUOTE="Strakha"]

At current growth rates around 2017 but growth rates can change. So possibly sooner or later than that but most likely by 2020. 2017 is the IMF estimate btw if you were wondering where I got the date from. More info in link.

http://www.ibtimes.com/oecd-report-says-chinas-economy-will-overtake-us-economy-2016-1146333

wellbigd

USA's economy isn't declining though. The rate of growth has slowed but it hasn't declined.

[QUOTE="Strakha"]

At current growth rates around 2017 but growth rates can change. So possibly sooner or later than that but most likely by 2020. 2017 is the IMF estimate btw if you were wondering where I got the date from. More info in link.

http://www.ibtimes.com/oecd-report-says-chinas-economy-will-overtake-us-economy-2016-1146333

wellbigd

Hard to imagine China not surpassing us in terms of GDP. In terms of GDP per capita, they'd need to have 3-4 times our GDP to achieve that, so that's not going to happen any time in the near future. (although really you'd want to compare real GDP per capita where the differential I believe isn't as large)

[QUOTE="mmwmwmmwmwmm"][QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

The only way China will surpass the US is if it continues to operate technocratic and quasi-technocratic principles.

one_plum

China's economy is in many ways freer than the US, that's why factories can get away with paying their workers at tiny wages; the companies are not held back by environmental restrictions and they are free to rip off their competition.

Is this the type of "free market" you're clamoring for?

[QUOTE="one_plum"]

[QUOTE="mmwmwmmwmwmm"]china will only succeed if it adopts free market principles.mmwmwmmwmwmm

China's economy is in many ways freer than the US, that's why factories can get away with paying their workers at tiny wages; the companies are not held back by environmental restrictions and they are free to rip off their competition.

Is this the type of "free market" you're clamoring for?

At the current economic climate, of course they have to keep going in their current direction, but how sustainable is it? There's no need to make Chinese industries accountable because holes are starting to show up. If you haven't been following Chinese news, there have been unrests and riots due to working conditions and the income inequality is spreading faster than anything that is seen in the US. The government will eventually have to react to avoid getting this out of control (which could ironically drive away the businesses there).

By the way, look at all the knockoff products in China. Isn't that a form of hard working innovators being ripped off by copycats?

If their economy does not crash in the coming years, yes.

If their economy does not crash in the coming years, yes.

dercoo

why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.

Depends. In pure GDP probably. China's GDP is soaring due to their government's relentless obsession for growing larger. That said they've created a bubble on top of unsustainable GDP growth. It will peak and then crash.

The USA and the rest of the west have slower, sustainable growth. Even during our harder timers we don't see a massive crash because of this. It's a much more healthy economic system.

Wasdie

Only a matter of time, and anything could happen.  Nothing lasts forever we cant expect to be on top forever with no slumps thats just being silly. 

[QUOTE="dercoo"]

If their economy does not crash in the coming years, yes.

osirisx3

why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.

[QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

The only way China will surpass the US is if it continues to operate technocratic and quasi-technocratic principles.

mmwmwmmwmwmm

Only if a technocratic government decides it. Economic policy should be fluid and monitored (and possibly controlled) by experts.

So a free market system is possible under a technocratic regime.

Yes. Probably witihin most of our ifetimes.

[QUOTE="dercoo"]

If their economy does not crash in the coming years, yes.

osirisx3

why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.

In terms of G.D.P., yes, in a few years. Per capita, decades, if ever.

dude_brahmski

Pretty much this.

[QUOTE="osirisx3"]

[QUOTE="dercoo"]

If their economy does not crash in the coming years, yes.

Person0

why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.

Yes, but whether that will be a major problem in many ways remains to be seen.  It's pretty much all based on speculation, which as we know from our own issues in America can turn out very poorly, but the gamble could also pay off if more of the population shifts from agrarian to city-based.  From my understanding, it could be a bubble about to burst, or urbanization leading to busy metropolitan areas.

why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.osirisx3

[QUOTE="osirisx3"] why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.Crushmaster

You'd probably change your tune after most of the stuff you buy increases in price ten fold. It's not economically feasible for either country to stop trade right now.Toxic-Seahorse

[QUOTE="Toxic-Seahorse"] You'd probably change your tune after most of the stuff you buy increases in price ten fold. It's not economically feasible for either country to stop trade right now.Crushmaster

Understanding the effects of globalization should be enough evidence for you. Cheap labor plus favorable trade pacts equals cheap products. The outsourcing of mass production to low labor cost nations means lower product prices. The ratio is superior to that of the economic loss of keeping the same jobs domestic. Individual spending power is increased because the same amount of money can purchase a higher number of products, allowing economic growth in additional sectors.

Eliminating trade with another nation based on human rights may sound noble, but is unrealistic. It is especially unrealistic when the nation in question is (depending on your source) responsible for over three trillion dollars of trade (roughly $2.2t imported to the U.S., another $800b exported to China).

If your Christian faith leads you to focus on these issues, utilizing these trade agreements is your best tool, specifically in advocating personal and religious freedom with the threat of product boycotting. Completely ejecting them from international trade is likely to harm both parties, along with both populations, and hence your message will be ignored.

[QUOTE="osirisx3"] why does everyone say china is going to crash? If China goes down then the US will go under they wont have anything left in there stores.Crushmaster

Understanding the effects of globalization should be enough evidence for you. Cheap labor plus favorable trade pacts equals cheap products. The outsourcing of mass production to low labor cost nations means lower product prices. The ratio is superior to that of the economic loss of keeping the same jobs domestic. Individual spending power is increased because the same amount of money can purchase a higher number of products, allowing economic growth in additional sectors.

Eliminating trade with another nation based on human rights may sound noble, but is unrealistic. It is especially unrealistic when the nation in question is (depending on your source) responsible for over three trillion dollars of trade (roughly $2.2t imported to the U.S., another $800b exported to China).

If your Christian faith leads you to focus on these issues, utilizing these trade agreements is your best tool, specifically in advocating personal and religious freedom with the threat of product boycotting. Completely ejecting them from international trade is likely to harm both parties, along with both populations, and hence your message will be ignored. Chemistian

How do you expect cutting off trade will alleviate these problems? China and many other developing countries have awful human rights records because they are dirt poor and thus need to have more severe restrictions on their population to control crime, corruption, instability, .etc.. Cutting off trade with them is just going to make everyone even poorer (yes, even America) which isn't going to help anybody. Or it would make China and America poorer and make all the other developed countries still trading with them richer. Barbariser

It hasn't?

I don't know, I don't keep track of "economical statistics." Hell I don't even keep with statistics of any kind!

[QUOTE="mmwmwmmwmwmm"][QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

The only way China will surpass the US is if it continues to operate technocratic and quasi-technocratic principles.

frannkzappa

Only if a technocratic government decides it. Economic policy should be fluid and monitored (and possibly controlled) by experts.

So a free market system is possible under a technocratic regime.

You are improving. When you arrive somewhere along the lines of a mixed economy with a currency that is regulated by a central bank, you will have me rage considerably less.

[QUOTE="Chemistian"] Understanding the effects of globalization should be enough evidence for you. Cheap labor plus favorable trade pacts equals cheap products. The outsourcing of mass production to low labor cost nations means lower product prices. The ratio is superior to that of the economic loss of keeping the same jobs domestic. Individual spending power is increased because the same amount of money can purchase a higher number of products, allowing economic growth in additional sectors.

Eliminating trade with another nation based on human rights may sound noble, but is unrealistic. It is especially unrealistic when the nation in question is (depending on your source) responsible for over three trillion dollars of trade (roughly $2.2t imported to the U.S., another $800b exported to China).

If your Christian faith leads you to focus on these issues, utilizing these trade agreements is your best tool, specifically in advocating personal and religious freedom with the threat of product boycotting. Completely ejecting them from international trade is likely to harm both parties, along with both populations, and hence your message will be ignored. Crushmaster

How do you expect cutting off trade will alleviate these problems? China and many other developing countries have awful human rights records because they are dirt poor and thus need to have more severe restrictions on their population to control crime, corruption, instability, .etc.. Cutting off trade with them is just going to make everyone even poorer (yes, even America) which isn't going to help anybody. Or it would make China and America poorer and make all the other developed countries still trading with them richer. Barbariser

[QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

[QUOTE="mmwmwmmwmwmm"] china will only succeed if it adopts free market principles.dude_brahmski

Only if a technocratic government decides it. Economic policy should be fluid and monitored (and possibly controlled) by experts.

So a free market system is possible under a technocratic regime.

You are improving. When you arrive somewhere along the lines of a mixed economy with a currency that is regulated by a central bank, you will have me rage considerably less.

Also possible under a technocracy.

The abundance based system is an ideal, not necessarialy what will be implemented in a real and practical world.

[QUOTE="dude_brahmski"]

[QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

Only if a technocratic government decides it. Economic policy should be fluid and monitored (and possibly controlled) by experts.

 

So a free market system is possible under a technocratic regime.

frannkzappa

You are improving. When you arrive somewhere along the lines of a mixed economy with a currency that is regulated by a central bank, you will have me rage considerably less.

Also possible under a technocracy.

Then you'd certainly want to incorporate it.

[QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

[QUOTE="dude_brahmski"]

You are improving. When you arrive somewhere along the lines of a mixed economy with a currency that is regulated by a central bank, you will have me rage considerably less.

dude_brahmski

Also possible under a technocracy.

Then you'd certainly want to incorporate it.

Not up to me...

[QUOTE="dude_brahmski"]

[QUOTE="frannkzappa"]

Also possible under a technocracy.

frannkzappa

Then you'd certainly want to incorporate it.

Not up to me...

Was referring to an example of practical model that could hypothetically rise about. Oh, well the experts would def. favor it regardless. That much I'm not worried about. Central banks are effective institutions.