So the plot thickens. In Syria's 14 month struggle, another deadly string of car bombs on Thursday has evoked the kind of carnage that afflicts Iraq even today. Damascus, once one of the world's safest capitals, is now a closed city that is seeing more insurgent attacks, bombs, and protests as time goes on. More extremist players like Al Qaeda seem to be entering the fray. And yet so far, Assad has seemed to have alienated most of the country's Sunni majority with his defiant and unsophisticated crackdown on the opposition. All the while, the already weak economy is sagging heavily as sanctions bite and the Syrian government funnels all its money into its military crackdown, cutting back severely on key services like education.
I don't see a clear and smooth endgame in Syria to say the least. Whether Assad goes or stays, the fate of the country in my eyes is Lebanonisation and Iraqisation, with a weak or nonexistent central government and military, militant, and paramilitary groups all carving out their own stakes and fiefdoms among sectarian lines and settling their own scores (sectarian, personal, or otherwise) as this conflict becomes more chaotic and untenable.
You think power vacuums are bad? How about a power vacuum that unleashes vengence seeking groups and empowers an opposition far more united by the hate of Assad than any common ideology. This could really unleash pandora's box of both the Arab Spring and the surrounding Middle East. I don't want to see what will happen if and when the 40 year House of Assad and its apparatus of regional alliances, state secrets, and stacked sectarian Alawite interests comes crashing down. Although, even if it still stands at the end of the day, Assad may very well face a long and unwinnable war. And it should not be understated that he does not have to be defeated militarily to be utterly doomed.
Enjoy the show I guess.
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