What's your electoral vote prediction?

I used CNN's calculator and came up with 289 for McCain and 249 for Obama. Some of the "leaning Obama" states they listed were real howlers, like New Mexico, and Florida a tossup? Please. I gave Minnesota to McCain, because I have a feeling it going to go his way (as do many Minnesotans), but it doesn't really matter. Either way, McCain will be the next President of the United States.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

obama gonna winYoungGun13

I used CNN's calculator and came up with 289 for McCain and 249 for Obama. Some of the "leaning Obama" states they listed were real howlers, like New Mexico, and Florida a tossup? Please. I gave Minnesota to McCain, because I have a feeling it going to go his way (as do many Minnesotans), but it doesn't really matter. Either way, McCain will be the next President of the United States.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

mysterylobster

I have: Obama with 286 and McCain with 252, and with recent polls, thats be generous.

http://www.270towin.com/ it has an eaiser format and I think it tells whos winning in polls in each state.

Obama is ahead in the polls so I'd say with the information at hand now he is the most likely to win.Zero5000X

How did that work out for Kerry? he was leading in the polls going into election day.

Do not look just at polls. Look at a wide range of factors, like voting history and local politics. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama, but wait and see how many of them either don't show up or change their tune when it comes time to vote.

[QUOTE="Zero5000X"]Obama is ahead in the polls so I'd say with the information at hand now he is the most likely to win.mysterylobster

How did that work out for Kerry? he was leading in the polls going into election day.

Do not look just at polls. Look at a wide range of factors, like voting history and local politics. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama, but wait and see how many of them either don't show up or change their tune when it comes time to vote.

Yea but you can also argue that that can go the other way too.

How the hell did you get 289-249?rockguy92

he pulled them out of his ***

How the hell did you get 289-249?rockguy92

This site is rigorous enough that I pretty much just point to it and go "yeah, what it says".

How did that work out for Kerry? he was leading in the polls going into election day.

Do not look just at polls. Look at a wide range of factors, like voting history and local politics. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama, but wait and see how many of them either don't show up or change their tune when it comes time to vote.

mysterylobster

Er, Kerry was down in the polls in October. He rallied as Election Day came; he didn't lose ground.

Conversely, polls have been showing McCain behind as far as 10 or 11 points. No candidate has ever come back from being down that far in October.

I used CNN's calculator and came up with 289 for McCain and 249 for Obama. Some of the "leaning Obama" states they listed were real howlers, like New Mexico, and Florida a tossup? Please. I gave Minnesota to McCain, because I have a feeling it going to go his way (as do many Minnesotans), but it doesn't really matter. Either way, McCain will be the next President of the United States.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

mysterylobster

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="Zero5000X"]Obama is ahead in the polls so I'd say with the information at hand now he is the most likely to win.Zero5000X

How did that work out for Kerry? he was leading in the polls going into election day.

Do not look just at polls. Look at a wide range of factors, like voting history and local politics. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama, but wait and see how many of them either don't show up or change their tune when it comes time to vote.

Yea but you can also argue that that can go the other way too.

Obama is the one who has more work ahead of him convincing people who say they'll vote for him to actually go out and vote. Part of that is the number of young voters, but also it's because lots of these polls are affected by media hype, which doesn't translate well into actual votes, while McCain is riding a solid wave of reform and experience.

Being as neutral as i can... I'll admit i'm pulling for Obama. But as realistically as i could... respecting the states that are "leaning" one way to winning that state. Such as Minnesota going to Obama. I came up with:

Obama: 317

McCain: 221

Again... being as neutral as i can here, but I honestly think thats how it'll go down.

[QUOTE="Zero5000X"][QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

[QUOTE="Zero5000X"]Obama is ahead in the polls so I'd say with the information at hand now he is the most likely to win.mysterylobster

How did that work out for Kerry? he was leading in the polls going into election day.

Do not look just at polls. Look at a wide range of factors, like voting history and local politics. A lot of people are saying they'll vote for Obama, but wait and see how many of them either don't show up or change their tune when it comes time to vote.

Yea but you can also argue that that can go the other way too.

Obama is the one who has more work ahead of him convincing people who say they'll vote for him to actually go out and vote. Part of that is the number of young voters, but also it's because lots of these polls are affected by media hype, which doesn't translate well into actual votes, while McCain is riding a solid wave of reform and experience.

Oh, and im me, and ive never guessed an election wrong, ever. :P (Im just kidding no reason to argue this point.

In other words McCain has a very steep up hill battle.

Imagine a hill, that goes almost entirely verticle, with Chuck Norris on top trying to prevent him, thats the kind of hill John McCain has to climb to become president of the united states that this point in time.

[QUOTE="rockguy92"]How the hell did you get 289-249?tman93

I know. Even if McCain wins all the swing states he would have 274 electoral votes to obama's 264. The TC is in a serious denial stage.

[QUOTE="mysterylobster"]

I used CNN's calculator and came up with 289 for McCain and 249 for Obama. Some of the "leaning Obama" states they listed were real howlers, like New Mexico, and Florida a tossup? Please. I gave Minnesota to McCain, because I have a feeling it going to go his way (as do many Minnesotans), but it doesn't really matter. Either way, McCain will be the next President of the United States.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Jacobistheman

Uh what.

[QUOTE="tman93"][QUOTE="rockguy92"]How the hell did you get 289-249?Chargeagles1

I know. Even if McCain wins all the swing states he would have 274 electoral votes to obama's 264. The TC is in a serious denial stage.

McCain wins Minnesota, and he definitely wins New Mexico.

A lot of those "swing" states aren't swing states at all. Some are solid McCain states. Even some states that CNN has leaning Obama are certainly going to go to McCain, like New Mexico, so he doesn't need to win them all. mysterylobster

Actually, Obama has a strong lead in New Mexico.

A lot of those "swing" states aren't swing states at all. Some are solid McCain states. Even some states that CNN has leaning Obama are certainly going to go to McCain, like New Mexico, so he doesn't need to win them all. mysterylobster

And you're basing that on...

[QUOTE="Chargeagles1"]

[QUOTE="tman93"][QUOTE="rockguy92"]How the hell did you get 289-249?mysterylobster

I know. Even if McCain wins all the swing states he would have 274 electoral votes to obama's 264. The TC is in a serious denial stage.

McCain wins Minnesota, and he definitely wins New Mexico.

And I don't know much about NM, but prove that it will stay republican?

A lot of those "swing" states aren't swing states at all. Some are solid McCain states. Even some states that CNN has leaning Obama are certainly going to go to McCain, like New Mexico, so he doesn't need to win them all. mysterylobster

I need your definition of a swing state... and why would CNN put them as questionable if they are 'solid' McCain states? seriously...

[QUOTE="Chargeagles1"]

[QUOTE="tman93"][QUOTE="rockguy92"]How the hell did you get 289-249?mysterylobster

I know. Even if McCain wins all the swing states he would have 274 electoral votes to obama's 264. The TC is in a serious denial stage.

McCain wins Minnesota, and he definitely wins New Mexico.

SO YOU"RE TELLING ME THAT MCCAIN WILL WIN ALL THE SWING STATES AND THE OBAMA STATES.:roll: OBAMA IS BEATING MCCAIN OF AN AVERAGE OF 9.8 POINTS IN MINNESOTA, AND 7.8 POINTS IN NEW MEXICO. seriously use common sense.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

You can't even call North Carolina or Missouri secure McCain states right now, how can you be so sure he'll win states like Minnesota and New Mexico?supercubedude64

People like the TC shouldn't even be allowed to vote. He says that mccain will win states in which obama is winning by 9+ points. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE.

[QUOTE="supercubedude64"]You can't even call North Carolina or Missouri secure McCain states right now, how can you be so sure he'll win states like Minnesota and New Mexico?Chargeagles1

People like the TC shouldn't even be allowed to vote. He says that mccain will win states in which obama is winning by 9+ points. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE.

Not being allowed to vote is a bit extreme, but he certainly is dismissing a lot of information.

[QUOTE="supercubedude64"]You can't even call North Carolina or Missouri secure McCain states right now, how can you be so sure he'll win states like Minnesota and New Mexico?Chargeagles1

People like the TC shouldn't even be allowed to vote. He says that mccain will win states in which obama is winning by 9+ points. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE.

I can tell you right now that the election is rigged. Obama will easily win the popular vote but of course the electorals will go for Mccain and he will win ... Mccain is most like Bush and thats what they want again Bush-Clinton-Bush-Bush wannabe. It will be around 310 for Mccain. John Kerry had Florida won against Bush and then something happened and Bush won ... tell me how its not rigged.nVidiaGaMer

Nah. Obama will win for sure. Realclearpolitics has him at 264 WITHOUT the toss up states. with the toss up states he is at 364 electoral votes. their is no way mccain can win.

[QUOTE="Chargeagles1"]

[QUOTE="supercubedude64"]You can't even call North Carolina or Missouri secure McCain states right now, how can you be so sure he'll win states like Minnesota and New Mexico?tman93

People like the TC shouldn't even be allowed to vote. He says that mccain will win states in which obama is winning by 9+ points. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE.

I also heard that Barr is winning in California.

[QUOTE="tman93"][QUOTE="Chargeagles1"]

[QUOTE="supercubedude64"]You can't even call North Carolina or Missouri secure McCain states right now, how can you be so sure he'll win states like Minnesota and New Mexico?Chargeagles1

People like the TC shouldn't even be allowed to vote. He says that mccain will win states in which obama is winning by 9+ points. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE.

I also heard that Barr is winning in California.

[QUOTE="nVidiaGaMer"]I can tell you right now that the election is rigged. Obama will easily win the popular vote but of course the electorals will go for Mccain and he will win ... Mccain is most like Bush and thats what they want again Bush-Clinton-Bush-Bush wannabe. It will be around 310 for Mccain. John Kerry had Florida won against Bush and then something happened and Bush won ... tell me how its not rigged.Chargeagles1

Nah. Obama will win for sure. Realclearpolitics has him at 264 WITHOUT the toss up states. with the toss up states he is at 364 electoral votes. their is no way mccain can win.

We'll see. There are people who have more power then you think in this country and they can do lots of things ...

[QUOTE="Chargeagles1"]

[QUOTE="nVidiaGaMer"]I can tell you right now that the election is rigged. Obama will easily win the popular vote but of course the electorals will go for Mccain and he will win ... Mccain is most like Bush and thats what they want again Bush-Clinton-Bush-Bush wannabe. It will be around 310 for Mccain. John Kerry had Florida won against Bush and then something happened and Bush won ... tell me how its not rigged.nVidiaGaMer

Nah. Obama will win for sure. Realclearpolitics has him at 264 WITHOUT the toss up states. with the toss up states he is at 364 electoral votes. their is no way mccain can win.

We'll see. There are people who have more power then you think in this country and they can do lots of things ...

And that's why our next president will be Richard Nixon.

[QUOTE="Chargeagles1"][QUOTE="tman93"][QUOTE="Chargeagles1"]

[QUOTE="supercubedude64"]You can't even call North Carolina or Missouri secure McCain states right now, how can you be so sure he'll win states like Minnesota and New Mexico?tman93

People like the TC shouldn't even be allowed to vote. He says that mccain will win states in which obama is winning by 9+ points. That's a HUGE DIFFERENCE.

I also heard that Barr is winning in California.

I can tell you right now that the election is rigged. Obama will easily win the popular vote but of course the electorals will go for Mccain and he will win ... Mccain is most like Bush and thats what they want again Bush-Clinton-Bush-Bush wannabe. It will be around 310 for Mccain. John Kerry had Florida won against Bush and then something happened and Bush won ... tell me how its not rigged.nVidiaGaMer

Rigging one state? Maybe. Rigging a dozen states? Not gonna happen. It would be an obvious case of electoral fraud.

In any case, I thought McCain was going to win for a long time. But his campaign has been so pathetic and absurd, it doesn't seem possible now.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This site is nice because it takes the average of all the polls and is updated daily. McCain will not win Minnesota, or New Mexico.

[QUOTE="nVidiaGaMer"]I can tell you right now that the election is rigged. Obama will easily win the popular vote but of course the electorals will go for Mccain and he will win ... Mccain is most like Bush and thats what they want again Bush-Clinton-Bush-Bush wannabe. It will be around 310 for Mccain. John Kerry had Florida won against Bush and then something happened and Bush won ... tell me how its not rigged.Rhazakna

Rigging one state? Maybe. Rigging a dozen states? Not gonna happen. It would be an obvious case of electoral fraud.

In any case, I thought McCain was going to win for a long time. But his campaign has been so pathetic and absurd, it doesn't seem possible now.

Your right about that I just hope Obama hangs on to win ...