Why Obama is more likely to win the election than Romney

Electoral math is the reason.

This is an article about how Obama has a good amount of electoral college advantages.

Obama has many paths to 270 and a good amount of wiggle room whereas Romney has to capture the overwhelming amount of swing states. Obama can win with just a few. For instance, if Obama held the states that Kerry won in 2004, he could win simply by beating Romney in Florida. If he didn't have Florida, he could win with Ohio, New Mexico, and either Colorado/Nevada. There are even combinations in which he wouldn't need either. For instance, if he held the Kerry states and won Colorado, New Mexico and North Carolina or Virginia. Romney really can't afford to lose either Ohio or Florida.

Compounding this problem is Romney's current problem amongst women voters.

Man the electoral college is garbage.

Man the electoral college is garbage.

eggdog1234

What's your beef with it?

Obama doesn't even really need the Electoral College to edge him out. He'll likely win by a decent margin anyway... Most conservative Republicans don't give two craps about Romney... He doesn't energize the base, or entice independents.

[QUOTE="eggdog1234"]

Man the electoral college is garbage.

GreySeal9

What's your beef with it?

My beef goes deeper than the electoral college, but to answer your question the electoral college makes the presidential election a sham, as do the primaries and the two party system. People often think that checks and balances act as a way to deter a king or dictator from taking power when in reality the check is against the will of the people, ie anti revolutionary government, ie anti change, ie totalitarianism and the electoral college is one representation of that.

No incumbent has ever won with this high of unemployment. That article was OK but I think they were trying to make a case rather than weigh the probability.DaBrainz

I bet before Reagan won with a 7.5 unemployment rate, people said the same thing.

But I'm pretty sure Roosevelt won with higher unemployment. However, I realize that things were different back then.

It's true that no incumbent was one with such a high unemployment, but not challenger has won with the high negative favorability numbers that Mitt Romney has. Once again, it's a lesser of two evils election.

The GOP base isn't nearly as energized as they were two years ago when there was a GOP wave into Congress and the Governor's offices. It will be much different this time. The Tea Party influence is waning, and there are several state where the austerity measures have resulted in a lot of grassroots pushback.

It will be an unpredictable season when we get past the conventions, but it looks like Obama has a good shot at being reelected. It isn't as though Romney will be much different if he's the choice.

The R. Primary ****** up and R. chance of getting into office

They don't have any candidate that can motivate people to vote like Obama has proven to be able to do.

That said, Romney could still win, but it would literally take a disaster(botched national disaster) for Obama to lose.

Obama is a jackass that doesn't deserve two sh!ts of a second to sit in the oval office.

That phony should just go back to where ever he came from,

Let's just launch the government into outer space. Who's with me?

The GOP base isn't nearly as energized as they were two years ago when there was a GOP wave into Congress and the Governor's offices.

jimkabrhel

Let's just launch the government into outer space. Who's with me?

BATTOSAI76

hmm....

Is our national dept going to be launched up in space also?

really unique fidosim

[QUOTE="fidosim"]really unique -Sun_Tzu-

[QUOTE="BATTOSAI76"]

Let's just launch the government into outer space. Who's with me?

dercoo

hmm....

Is our national dept going to be launched up in space also?

Who knows, but it's worth a shot.

They can always make up the difference of votes by voting as Eric Holder at all voting precents

Obama is a jackass that doesn't deserve two sh!ts of a second to sit in the oval office.

That phony should just go back to where ever he came from,

DrPickle

Phony? In what way?

Obama is probably going to win. I don't really care, they're pretty much the same. At least we're guaranteed someone new in 2016 if Obama is reelected.

I don't like Obama, and I don't like Romney either. But frankly, I'd prefer either of the two over all of the other former Republican candidates. What a dearth of candidates there has been this time around.

No incumbent has ever won with this high of unemployment. That article was OK but I think they were trying to make a case rather than weigh the probability.DaBrainz

Obama will win because Romney has nothing to debate over. The economy is recovering and fuel prices are dropping again. So, what's he going to do? Bash Obamacare after he himself had "Romneycare" in his state? He's a fraud. No Republican would beat Obama this election. They are just wasting everyone's time.Netherscourge

And yet I'm still baffled to how he managed to win the candidancy. Why would the Republican party vote for a person who is technically big government? :?

Gas prices are dropping? Last time I checked they were $4 just for regular and this was a couple of days ago.

I believe it'll get ugly but in the end i think Obama will come out on top.

I'd like anyone except a conservative White House....Jebus213

Then you have two options: Romeny and Obama. ;)

[QUOTE="Netherscourge"]Obama will win because Romney has nothing to debate over. The economy is recovering and fuel prices are dropping again. So, what's he going to do? Bash Obamacare after he himself had "Romneycare" in his state? He's a fraud. No Republican would beat Obama this election. They are just wasting everyone's time.leviathan91

And yet I'm still baffled to how he managed to win the candidancy. Why would the Republican party vote for a person who is technically big government? :?

Gas prices are dropping? Last time I checked they were $4 just for regular and this was a couple of days ago.

Gas prices have dropped a few cents over the last week or so, and the current forecast predicts a significant drop through the summer, now that Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC nations can more than make up for Iran's drop in production.

[QUOTE="leviathan91"]

[QUOTE="Netherscourge"]Obama will win because Romney has nothing to debate over. The economy is recovering and fuel prices are dropping again. So, what's he going to do? Bash Obamacare after he himself had "Romneycare" in his state? He's a fraud. No Republican would beat Obama this election. They are just wasting everyone's time.jimkabrhel

And yet I'm still baffled to how he managed to win the candidancy. Why would the Republican party vote for a person who is technically big government? :?

Gas prices are dropping? Last time I checked they were $4 just for regular and this was a couple of days ago.

Gas prices have dropped a few cents over the last week or so, and the current forecast predicts a significant drop through the summer, now that Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC nations can more than make up for Iran's drop in production.

Good news but I doubt it will last.