I think the biggest barrier to DX10 is, ironically, the Xbox360. Many developers are now using the Xbox360 as their lead development platform for multi-platform titles, and that means they are primarily optimising their games for that hardware running DX9 because the X360 does not support DX10.
They will increasingly bolt on DX10 support as more people adopt Vista, but I think there will be very few developers working on DX10 exclusive games built from the ground up for DX10. I really don't think the industry is going to widely adopt DX10 on the PC. They will most liekly wait until the next Xbox console system hits market in a few years time that will probably support DX11. Then there will probably be a shift to that API because they can continue to use the closed console system for game development, and port it more easily 'feature-complete' to the PC.
So I don't think it is necessrily the adoption rate of Vista that will have an impact on DX10 games, but developers themselves who will not want to blow millions of dollars putting their eggs in one basket. To develop solely for DX10, they would have to develop a game solely for the PC, and specifically one running Vista, and at a time when more and more developers are going multi-platform to increase sales and profits, it just doesn't make much financial sense.
If anything, Microsoft shot themselves in their own foot by aggressively pushing a console that did not support DX10. With a bit of foresight, if they had somehow been able to futureproof the Xbox360 so that it could later use the DX10 API, then more developers would have automatically switched to it, meaning more DX10 capable games, meaning faster adoption rates on the PC...
Log in to comment