I have been reading up on things like programmable shaders, and basically even directx 10 with it's shader model 4 features does not even come close to software rendering capabilities. Remember playing half-life or quake for the first time, and not even needing a graphics card?
The possibilites in theory were unlimited, yet in reality cpu's were just too slow at the time.
But welcome to 2007, the mass produced and affordable intel core2duo quad processor (just one example) could do so much with software rendering. Dedicate a whole 2 cores to graphics computations with smart and highly efficient voxel based rendering techniques and you can achieve crysis like scenes on a cpu at a playable framerate. (OK, I'm exaggerating ;) )
Unlike programmable gpu's, software rendering is unlimited in it's possibilities, pixar and other studios use software rendering to produce their highly detailed 3d films, graphics card don't have the flexibility for techniques such as ray-tracing etc in real time.
So, here's what I'm getting at....about 20 years from now, gpu's are basically going to become so flexible, so general purpose with their shader implementations, that they will in fact have all the capabilities of cpu's. Then the logical step is to combine any differences and create a hybrid cpu/gpu design that will become so powerful, so efficient, that specialised graphics processing boards will become obsolete.
Why bother optimizing your game for a particular gpu instruction set like directx10 or opengl2.0, when you can just write all your shaders in software and achieve any effect you wish on any scale, which would be possible, given the power of the cpu you're dealing with.
To further simplify my point....we will only get true to life graphics and leave the uncanny valley, when cpu's become our graphics and physics processors as well. From the beginning it has been about integration. We are headed towards some sort of processing singularity, when the core features of a whole PC will fit on a single nail sized chip, I guarantee it, and it's sooner than you think.
And with it will come games that will be so realistic, they will be games no more. Convincing AI will have the chance to flourish when such supercomputing power is in the homes of mainstream consumers. We are headed for a fusion of hardware. When that fusion occurs, developers will only need to worry about one thing, software. They will be limited no more.
What does this mean for the future of specialised games consoles?
Nothing sinister. They will simply become simplified entertainment extensions/appendages of the greater processing hub of the home of 2027 that will be the PC.
Couple all this with new peripherals, that will allow user interaction on an entirely new level (direct brain-to-pc interfaces) and we are living in ancient history people.
Remember the games of 1987? We live in an entirely new era. Imagine what 2027 will look like...
I think we should look ahead, instead of focusing on directx11 or the geforce 9800, the gpu makers and cpu makers should experiment, work together and dvelve into entirely new and radical technologies. Let's skip this time consuming sequential evolution of computer graphics, and move by leaps and bounds. To do this the cpu and gpu manufacturers should pool their resources and technology.
Gpu's are starting to share so many aspect of the cpu, it is becoming wasteful, us gamers are ready for union NOW. No separate physics cards, no more graphics cards, just one single processing unit smack bang in the heart of our machines. No need for specialisation, for fancy visual tricks, if the cpu is fast enough.
If nano/quantum computing ever takes off, and mainstream pc's hit the terahertz range, specialised hardware will become obsolete, and the possibilities endless. I look forward to this day.
~Gangans~
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