The best single-PCB graphics card on the market as of today is the HD3870X2. It's technically two GPU's on a single card, but for all intents and purposes, it functions as a single card. However, it's worth pointing out that you don't always want the best, but the best in your price range. For most users I'd say something like the HD3850 or 8800GT would be a more ideal card in terms of how well it performs versus how much it costs.
How long will it last? That's a tricky question, the graphics industry is never stable. Some cards remain decent for 3 years, while others become outdated in three months. Since we're near the end of the 8800's lifecycle, we're probably going to see some pretty mean new cards soon. That doesn't mean your graphics card will be a poor performer though, just not top-dog. For a good gaming experience, the HD3850 should last for at least a year and half, two years for the 8800GT, and you could probably squeeze two and a half out of the HD3870X2.
2GB is enough for right now, but if you're not big on upgrading, getting 4GB wouldn't hurt considering how cheap it is.
The best places depend on your location. Inside the US, ZipZoomFly, Newegg, ClubIt, Tigerdirect, and NCIX are all good places for general parts, and Performance-PCs and FrozenCPU are great specialty shops for the little things like coolers, fans, lights, and things of that nature.
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