The NPD, and why their figures are worthless.

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fatshodan

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#1 fatshodan
Member since 2008 • 2886 Posts

I've noticed recently that many people (not to mention more than a few websites) are using the NPD group's sales data as somehow being representative of the (according to them, dire) state of the PC gaming industry. I've never noticed a thread on the matter, so I would like to raise a few points.

They only cover US sales

PC gaming is not huge in America. The UK alone sees around one third as many PC game sales as the US. Germany sees equal tomore sales. America accounts for barely than one third of the total global sales (this is an estimate on my part, but it seems about right) of many PC games. Obviously it varies from game to game, but generally speaking, the US does not see strong sales compared with the rest of the world. Sales in America don't represent sales on a global scale.

They only cover boxed retail sales

The NPD group's figures don't cover online sales, which include monthly subscriptions to MMORPGs, digital distrubtion and microtransactions. Considering that Steam has over fifteen million registered users worldwide, one MMORPG alone has over ten million subscribers, and many developers are looking at episodic, digitally distributed games (Telltale, Hothead), this is clearly a fairly significant issue. There are also services like gameTap and Direct2Drive.

Many other companies have their own DD services, or are in the process of setting them up, and both id and DICE/EA (and it's fair to presume as yet unannounced others) are soon releasing free games supported entirely by advertising and microtransactions.

Fudged numbers

From what I can tell, the NPD group's numbers run from January to December of the same year. Now, as we all know, many games are released toward the end of the year. The NPD doesn't seem to factor in the most basic and obvious concept - games released late in the year don't have time enough to sell into the big numbers to get on the NPD's top selling charts. These games released towards the end of the year see most of their sales the year after, but are not counted on the yearly charts because they were released the previous year.

For instance, Crysis sold one million units worldwide between Novemer '07 and the end of January '08. The NPD records it as selling 85,000 by the end of 2007. Not only does this only factor in US sales (and only boxed copies at that), the game won't be carried over to the top selling 2008 list, simply because it was released in 2007. Crysis conveniently misses the 2007 top selling list and the 2008 top selling list, despite having currently sold over 1.5 million worldwide in barely nine months. And yet Crysis will never be recorded by the NPD as selling more than 85,000 units (in its yearly top sellers charts).

Please, if you're going to quote the NPD's figures, be aware of the above points. PC gaming is far, far stronger than the NPD would have you think with their inaccurate and incomplete numbers.

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deactivated-60f7582dcaa79

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#2 deactivated-60f7582dcaa79
Member since 2004 • 510 Posts
Motion to sticky this thread to denounce all of the "PC Gaming is dying" heretics that stumble into here from system wars.
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Vampyronight

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#3 Vampyronight
Member since 2002 • 3933 Posts

It's NPD, by the way.

And actually, the NPD fully admits its statistics aren't particularly good for PC. I think most people on this board know that...it's the people from OTHER boards that don't seem to pick up on this factoid.

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OoSuperMarioO

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#4 OoSuperMarioO
Member since 2005 • 6539 Posts

Are cupcakes consider as cakes? or just well... cupcakes?

Mmm.... cupcakes..

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adrake4183

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#5 adrake4183
Member since 2006 • 668 Posts

It's NPD, by the way.

And actually, the NPD fully admits its statistics aren't particularly good for PC. I think most people on this board know that...it's the people from OTHER boards that don't seem to pick up on this factoid.

Vampyronight

I agree. I think most people on this side of the forum know these numbers at least don't cover digital sales.

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Makari

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#6 Makari
Member since 2003 • 15250 Posts
Only nitpick is that they pegged Crysis as doing 86k retail in the first two weeks, and 'till the end of 07' was six weeks. Otherwise, totally true, and I think it's less than what you said for the US retail even. Games like Crysis sat primarily on their sales in Europe.
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dos4gw82

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#7 dos4gw82
Member since 2006 • 1896 Posts
Very interesting...Thanks for the info.
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fatshodan

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#8 fatshodan
Member since 2008 • 2886 Posts

It's NPD, by the way.

And actually, the NPD fully admits its statistics aren't particularly good for PC. I think most people on this board know that...it's the people from OTHER boards that don't seem to pick up on this factoid.

Vampyronight

Heh. My mistake. I called it NDA and GDA and possibly several other things!

I was a little flustered and was typing fast. I will edit now.

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Makari

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#9 Makari
Member since 2003 • 15250 Posts
[QUOTE="Vampyronight"]

It's NPD, by the way.

And actually, the NPD fully admits its statistics aren't particularly good for PC. I think most people on this board know that...it's the people from OTHER boards that don't seem to pick up on this factoid.

fatshodan

Heh. My mistake. I called it NDA and GDA and possibly several other things!

I was a little flustered and was typing fast. I will edit now.

hey, my post :( http://www.shacknews.com/onearticle.x/50410 This was for the November sales report for US retail - "The report shows Crysis as selling 86,633 units at retail since its November 13 release..."