When are PC games going to peak?

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purpleRz

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#1 purpleRz
Member since 2007 • 889 Posts

Like some games are already video/movie realistic in parts, so i mean there can't be that much more they can do right, well maybe even bigger cities etc, but that would take hundreds more hours of prorgamming/mapping and maybe not worth the time, and anyway some cities are huge anyway.

So what more can we really expect, there must come a point when the hardware/software advances will peak, then imagine what will happen to the hardware industry, it will take a huge 'hardware crunch'?

We currently have ultra realisitc fluid, reflections, bump mapping, shaders and 4-8 gigs of ram should handle any useable quality of textures used, we have ultra realisitc physics and AI shouldn't be too much of a strain on the CPU...

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Jade_Monkey

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#2 Jade_Monkey
Member since 2004 • 4830 Posts
My money is on 2012-2015. The technology is getting close to photo-realistic but not in a way that consumers can go out and afford it. By 2015 I would expect photorealistic graphics that wouldn't cost me a mortgage. Now if only the AI could take a leap forward aside from a few games.
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deactivated-60678a6f9e4d4

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#3 deactivated-60678a6f9e4d4
Member since 2007 • 10077 Posts
Well, Crysis is the best we've got at the moment. I think if good hardware was cheaper, games would be almost photo-realistic already.
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deactivated-5ac102a4472fe

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#5 deactivated-5ac102a4472fe
Member since 2007 • 7431 Posts

well graphics are getting there, but I think it will take atleast 10 years before you will see a game with photo realistic npcs

I mean they can have 1 on a screen now more or less, so envioments, and creatures, needs some better hardware, and some better software to back it up.

Sound, I am thrilled about, its gotten quite good quite fast, but it still has far to go, it has the advantage over movies, since you have more options,

Level design? Is still in its childhood tho... its also the hardest of the things that needs working on...

I might overshoot alot but I think PC games will "peak" in about 20 years... it has risen exponentially, as it is, but I assume hardware will have some problems catching up to the software demands of games.

Im exited tho... about how games will be in so many years.

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RK-Mara

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#6 RK-Mara
Member since 2006 • 11489 Posts
Crysis is still far from photorealistic.
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TheFreeloader

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#7 TheFreeloader
Member since 2008 • 290 Posts
I think PC games still have a long way to go. PC game graphics (even crysis) still seems really far away compared to the ultra realistic computer effects in big movies. And they have been around for a while now. I don't know when it is gonna hit the same level but i think it is gonna take a long time.
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ColdfireTrilogy

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#8 ColdfireTrilogy
Member since 2005 • 4911 Posts
Well judging from the fact that the most realistic "physics" we have are just telemetry based ragdolls with collision detection id say they have a long way to go. People say "we've hit the end" ever 5 years or so ... i remember hearing it with HL2 and its realism ... now we have Crysis. Id say your never gonna see a peak because AI is 9 times out of 10 garbage. Physics is just there for immersion factors and Graphical quality even in gamesl like MGS4 are still very "bland" in terms of the detail real life has ... so ya not likely any time soon. I mean seriously ... no ones face looks like Merills or Otacons ... honestly look how smooth it is. Even in games like Crysis at the beginning cutscene theres a lot of detail you just dont realize is missing. Right now most "intense graphics" are tricks of graphics engines and when you get up close its not actually 3d but just highdetail bumpmapping and texturing tricks (go walk up to a wall in an unreal3 engine game looks beautiful till you realize everything is FLAT up close)
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DanielDust

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#9 DanielDust
Member since 2007 • 15402 Posts

In the world, I'm sure it's been for years, a system capable of photorealistic graphics, it just isn't available for the normal user or for most of the people not to mention the astronomical prices for such a super computer even far more advanced than any super computer "known" to man. For a normal consumer, my guess is, around 20 or 25 years.

(o_0 damn errors)

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markop2003

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#10 markop2003
Member since 2005 • 29917 Posts
we may peak soon though there is a lot of middle wear at the moment and if we go more down that root then it might peak at a higher point such as a texture database that developers can sign up to (there's already a company that just makes trees for games)
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markop2003

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#11 markop2003
Member since 2005 • 29917 Posts

Crysis is still far from photorealistic.RK-Mara

yes but will developers be able to spend the time and money making something much better?

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RK-Mara

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#12 RK-Mara
Member since 2006 • 11489 Posts

In the world, I'm sure it's been for years, a system capable of photorealistic graphics, it just isn't available for the normal user or for most of the people not to mention the astronomical prices for such a super computer even far more advanced than any super computer "known" to man. For a normal consumer, my guess is, around 20 or 25 years.

DanielDust

Photorealistic graphics being rendered? Yes, CGI movies are a proof of that. In real time like in games? Nope.

[QUOTE="RK-Mara"]Crysis is still far from photorealistic.markop2003

yes but will developers be able to spend the time and money making something much better?

Video game industry is growing all the time.

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southeastblue

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#13 southeastblue
Member since 2008 • 86 Posts

The real future of gaming after photo realistic graphics is TRUE 3 DIMENSIONAL worlds, and more realistic movement physics.

We're far from the pincacle of gaming yet.

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Nitrous2O

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#14 Nitrous2O
Member since 2004 • 1813 Posts

If we're talking "snapshot" photorealism quality in games, then yeah, we probably aren't too far away. With a passing glance, some Crysis screenshots could be mistaken for real life.

However, as far as PC gaming (or just gaming) peaking, I think that would only happen when we reach true virtual reality -- a very long way to go yet.

For example, imagine walking down a path in the woods, being able to pick up any leaf, or any small rock or stone and move it from one fingertip to another, throw it, make it "skip" in a nearby pond, etc, what ever you'd like. The ability to de-forest such as in Crysis can be thought of as a tiny representation of going in that direction from a "virtual reality" perspective (first person), even though it still has a long way to go towards realism.

I'd imagine our gaming interfaces will be vastly different by that point though. Something like the holodeck on Star Trek where the game environment becomes your very surroundings, and it's possible for real physical interaction. Or the interface might be completely neural, etc.

Then again, would these even be called games by this point, or would they have some other name.

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DanielDust

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#15 DanielDust
Member since 2007 • 15402 Posts

[QUOTE="DanielDust"]

In the world, I'm sure it's been for years, a system capable of photorealistic graphics, it just isn't available for the normal user or for most of the people not to mention the astronomical prices for such a super computer even far more advanced than any super computer "known" to man. For a normal consumer, my guess is, around 20 or 25 years.

RK-Mara

Photorealistic graphics being rendered? Yes, CGI movies are a proof of that. In real time like in games? Nope.

[QUOTE="RK-Mara"]Crysis is still far from photorealistic.markop2003

yes but will developers be able to spend the time and money making something much better?

Video game industry is growing all the time.

Nope I was talking about real time. (hint: US army)That's why I said, available to the normal user and system that we know of, but yeah not PC gaming ;) that, in about 20 or 25 years, maybe.

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HenriH-42

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#16 HenriH-42
Member since 2007 • 2113 Posts
I don't know about graphics but in terms of gameplay and amazing games, (PC) gaming peaked at 1998-2000. It's all been going downhill since.
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Threesixtyci

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#18 Threesixtyci
Member since 2006 • 4451 Posts

As far as I can see... PC's peaked in the 90's. Mainly with the way fo Simulations. When was the last jet simulation to be made for the PC, anyway? F4:AF? Remember Nascar Racing 4 and Legends? Remember Microprose? Remember Longbow 2? Freespace 2? X-Fighter? Indepencence War? X-com? Red Baron 3d?

Consoles dictate what type of games are released, nowadays. Even games that were considered PC games, have moved to the console or have taken Console play as a priority. Games such as Fallout 3, Oblivion, Bioshock, Civilization, The Sims, Halo....

Seems like the only PC games still being develop, come from overseas..... Like Russia, Poland.....and other such countries. (Stalker; Witcher)

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lordlors

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#19 lordlors
Member since 2004 • 6128 Posts
what's more interesting is when will humans commit the mistake of creating a superior AI with the ability to learn by itself.
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grassdream

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#20 grassdream
Member since 2006 • 1902 Posts
Well considering in less than ten years we went from this to this I think the next ten years are going to be pretty interesting.
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#21 Johnny_Rock
Member since 2002 • 40314 Posts

[QUOTE="RK-Mara"]Crysis is still far from photorealistic.markop2003

yes but will developers be able to spend the time and money making something much better?

Once hardware improves... which it always will.

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Phenom316

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#22 Phenom316
Member since 2008 • 1650 Posts

Nothing will be as revolutionairy as it was, building up video games from Pong into Crysis.

Truly phenomenal what they did. I remember when the NES was unbelievable, now look it us.

But "next", not in 09/10. Im gonna have to agree with Jade_monkey and say at 12 - 15.

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eclarkdog

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#23 eclarkdog
Member since 2004 • 1310 Posts

i think there is still a long way to go. Honestly, I don't care about photo realistic graphics. I kinda like the fact that games don't look like the real world.

With all the advancement we still don't have games that combine extreme graphics, great story telling, depth and length of gameplay, and most importantly advanced AI.

AI is the key and I think they are years away from coming close to mastering it. Think of all the possibilities like games that where the AI constantly adjusts to your actions or basically thinks on its own. In other words, the AI evolves.

Unfortunately, it appears like everything is heading toward the death that is MMOs.

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ReddestSkies

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#24 ReddestSkies
Member since 2005 • 4087 Posts

As far as I can see... PC's peaked in the 90's. Mainly with the way fo Simulations. When was the last jet simulation to be made for the PC, anyway? F4:AF? Remember Nascar Racing 4 and Legends? Remember Microprose? Remember Longbow 2? Freespace 2? X-Fighter? Indepencence War? X-com? Red Baron 3d?

Consoles dictate what type of games are released, nowadays. Even games that were considered PC games, have moved to the console or have taken Console play as a priority. Games such as Fallout 3, Oblivion, Bioshock, Civilization, The Sims, Halo....

Seems like the only PC games still being develop, come from overseas..... Like Russia, Poland.....and other such countries. (Stalker; Witcher)

Threesixtyci

The simulation genre is has never been very big. There are still simulators being made, though. They're just super-obscure.

Also, the other PC-only genres are still fairly strong. Awesome adventure games are released every year, the RTS genre is staying strong, turn-based strategy games are doing just fine, and while the RPG genre is not exactly as interesting as it was back in Black Isle's days, there are still interesting RPGs coming out every now and then (you just have to ignore the consolized trash). That reminds me that I need to play King's Bounty: The Legend, already.

The only real casuality is the FPS genre, and even then, as you pointed out, Europeans will keep on making true PC FPS for a while. It's a shame that we'll never see a good deathmatch game (Quake-style) ever again, though.

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Threesixtyci

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#25 Threesixtyci
Member since 2006 • 4451 Posts

My main point is that the PC isn't dictating what's being developed. PC developers have jumped ship or are favoring the console (mostly the Xbox.) and porting to the PC. And the furture will most likely follow that trend to a greater extent. There's just an easier buck to be made on the console side.

I just don't see it as a question of when the PC will peak.... when it'll be the console that will be dictate the style of graphics and whatnot.

As to what to expect 20 or 30 years from now? How about a true Artificial Intellegence? Like as in NPC's in games that trully evaluate how you play and respond with an actual vocabulary, instead of pre-programed responses.... creating fluid storylines, instead of linear, ones.

Instead of video games simulating books..... they'll simulate life.

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RawTechnique

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#26 RawTechnique
Member since 2008 • 221 Posts

In the future I predict they are going to have monitors that are so technologicly advanced games will become so real it will look as if you can stick your hand through the monitor and touch around in the game world it will look so real.

I'm thinking they will be able to accomplish this buy making multiple layers within a monitor to give games an ultra 3D like effect. Instead of a flat image with 3D textures behind it.

Trust me the PC or Consoles will never peak. Technology is always changing. And just think about it... In 1990 we had the Super Nintendo. In just 18 years we have games like Crysis. Just look at the comparison in a 18 year time span. You can only imagine what video games will look like 18 years from now.

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JnWycliffe

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#27 JnWycliffe
Member since 2008 • 769 Posts
i don't think pc games are even close to being photo-realistic.
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blackdreamhunk

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#28 blackdreamhunk
Member since 2007 • 3880 Posts

i don't think pc games are even close to being photo-realistic.JnWycliffe
crysis and check this link out

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4557935.ece

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DanielDust

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#29 DanielDust
Member since 2007 • 15402 Posts

[QUOTE="JnWycliffe"]i don't think pc games are even close to being photo-realistic.blackdreamhunk

crysis and check this link out

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4557935.ece

Crysis is FAR from photo-realistic. I'd be surprised if the most powerful desktop in the world and cryengine 2 would be able to render only one photo-realistic leaf in real time and that video doesn't prove nothing, only that technology advances. Something like that isn't possible in real time on a desktop PC and in real time.

Read that article again, even they say that the photo-realistic animations and graphics will be possible no sooner than 2020 or even longer, but that doesn't mean pc games/desktop PC's/standard graphic cards used for games, will be able to accomplish something like this in real time, that which we are interested in.

I could care less if CGI would become photo-realistic, all I care is that games look as good as they can in real time.

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gs_gear

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#30 gs_gear
Member since 2006 • 3237 Posts
In 25 years.
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gs_gear

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#31 gs_gear
Member since 2006 • 3237 Posts

[QUOTE="JnWycliffe"]i don't think pc games are even close to being photo-realistic.blackdreamhunk

crysis and check this link out

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4557935.ece

lol As I've said, 25 years till we'll see phoro-realistic graphics in games.

About that video, is that woman a full CGI character, I mean hair, hands, clothes and all, cause I think only the face is CGI?

I can't really tell, probably because of the video's resolution, but if that's all CGI then it's better than anything I've seen in movies.

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JnWycliffe

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#32 JnWycliffe
Member since 2008 • 769 Posts
[QUOTE="blackdreamhunk"]

[QUOTE="JnWycliffe"]i don't think pc games are even close to being photo-realistic.DanielDust

crysis and check this link out

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4557935.ece

Crysis is FAR from photo-realistic. I'd be surprised if the most powerful desktop in the world and cryengine 2 would be able to render only one photo-realistic leaf in real time and that video doesn't prove nothing, only that technology advances. Something like that isn't possible in real time on a desktop PC and in real time.

Read that article again, even they say that the photo-realistic animations and graphics will be possible no sooner than 2020 or even longer, but that doesn't mean pc games/desktop PC's/standard graphic cards used for games, will be able to accomplish something like this in real time, that which we are interested in.

I could care less if CGI would become photo-realistic, all I care is that games look as good as they can in real time.

i agree with this 100%.