No one has this information at the moment. It is still way too early to be talking about xbox 3 ps4 and nintendo whatever. Systems pretty much last for 5 to 6 years before the next one comes out. NES 1985-90, 91 SNES 1991-1996 N64 1996-2001 Gamecube 2001-2006. PS1 1994(Japan) 1995(rest of world)-2000 PS2 2000-2006 Xboc 2001-2005
Microsoft will probably jump the gun and get a headstart again since that worked out for them this generation. Most of the time though it is 5 to 6 years before a new system comes out and even after it does you still might have 2 to 3 years of older system support
NES(after launch of SNES) 1990-1994 SNES (after launch of N64) 1996-1997(rest of world, 1998 Japan) N64(2001-2002) Gamecube(2006-2007) We all know why nintendo's systems didn't get support for the 2-3 years after launch of new system.
PS1 (after launch of PS2) 2000-2004, PS2 Iafter launch of PS3) 2006-2009. I am just guessing about the 09 year, but ps2 is pretty much done this fall, but there could be a few games for ps2 next year.
Xbox (after launch of 360) 2005-2006 and that was just barely. They stopped production of xbox 1 like 2 months after 360 came out and that is why a lot of last gen games were on the 360 when that first came out. When Xbox 3 comes out they will probably drop 360 right mostly right after that one comes out.
People are explaining the 10 year cycle a little incorrectly to you. Sony didn't say 10 year life cycle before launch of a new system, they just said 10 year life cycle period. I mean PS1 games were on shelves a year after they stopped making games for it, so you still got 10 years with that. PS2 is going on it's 8th birthday this year and there is still shelving for that and I assume that they will still sell the games for a while more after they officailly drop production on the ps2. America wise it still beats out the ps3 in terms of sales.
It all depends on this year of 2008 that has already started and the holday season. If they continue to sell as they are now then the ps3 could last at least the full 5 year cycle, if it spikes up sales obviously it will last longer. If everyone buys it just for MGS 4 and then loses interest then by early 2010, it could go down hiil and be like the Gamecube and not do anything. It also depends on whether this Home thing is actually cool and does things for games as well as the interaction part. I mean if Little Big Planet, Socom, Confrontation, and Killzone 2 aren't that great then people will probably lose a lot of trust in Sony. MGS 4 and Resistance 2 probably will sell a million even if they were horrible which they won't be but still. It only took 2 years for everyone to go against sega and that was because of the add ons and nothing out on the Saturn.
In terms of how the markets are now. Europe prefers ps3 to 360, Japan doesn't care much about ps3 or 360, but ps3 still sells 6 to 7 times the amount of 360, right now in North America ps3 and 360 are selling about the same, 360 still has the edge though and is picking up steam here. It all depends on wether or not North America still has interest in ps3 after MGS 4. NA is the market that will determine whether sony lives or dies. Japan sales aren't going to strike up much. I mean yeah they might buy a million ps3's just to play MGS 4, but they have pretty much chosen the wii and the console they like to play on the most. Ninja Gaiden 2 and Gears of War 2 are pretty popular in NA so Sony still has a rough road ahead.
Anyway to answer your original question, if the PS3 lasts then your looking at 2011 and further for the next system in Sony's camp. If you buy one next year you will have qute a bit to choose from and newer games such and god of war 3, final fantasy 13 twisted metal, white knight chronicles, heavy rain, team ico project and infamous, plus everything that has been out for 2 years.
sorry for the long post.
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