All signs point to this being true. It's no secret that several prominent developers (Epic, Bungie) are not very happy with the way Microsoft does business. It's easy to say that money, above all else, is what matters to developers. In many ways, this is absolutely correct. However, let us not forget that creating video games is an art form; game developers are artists with a vision. Do you think the guys at Rockstar got into programming/game development strictly to fatten up their wallets? Of course not. They got into the business because they're creative people who love video games.
When an artist has a creative vision, he will do just about anything to see it come to fruition. If it doesn't happen, it can be very disappointing. Rockstar succeeded in creating some of the greatest games ever made for the PS2. With the arrival of next-gen gaming, I'm sure they had a very clear, ambitious vision of where they wanted to take the GTA franchise with the understanding that the PS3 would be a very powerful console with many exciting possibilities. Microsoft, then, with its endless supply of money and cut-throat business practices, swoops in and secures a multi-platform deal with Take-Two, including exclusive downloadable content. It seems reasonable to assume that there is certainly a disconnect between the business suits in the office of Take-Two and the talented artists at Rockstar.
It's not difficult to picture the big-wigs at Take-Two walking into Rockstar's studio and saying, "Guess what, guys! You now have to make the exact same game for a different console." While it's no secret that some developers have had difficulty familiarizing themselves with the PS3's programming architecture, it's nothing that they won't be able to work though. The DVD9 and lack of a universal hard drive in the Xbox 360, however, is a different issue entirely. It seems to be preventing them from realizing their initial vision of what GTAIV could be, and they're not happy about it. They've already announced that L.A. Noire would be exclusive to the PS3 and they've also announced a completely new franchise that will be exclusive to the PS3.
The evidence, while sparse, speaks volumes.
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