I'm not necessarily going to say that one is going to be better then the other since we will not know how the actual games will play yet. I will, however, say that one wil most likely DO better then the other from a business perspective. Most people are timid and bland and will get something with 10 times more ease if they have tried it before. Getting the next Modern Warfare game is likely going to be like going to a good quality hamburger joint and perhaps taking a chance by asking for bacon and extra pickles. My point? MW2 has a headstart as there are fans of the original who will already pre-intend to buy it.
MAG looks interesting and its large scale battles show promise. But there is also, as others have said, the chance for the game to fail horribly due to its sheer reliance on having enough gamers to actually play it. Its the new kid in school and it just walked up and decided to take the lunch money of said school's most notorious bully. What do you think is going to happen next? Either a) it is too big for its britches and it will get pounded or b) the bully (MW2 in this case) is about to be very, very hungry.
I think that if the game works as developers intended that it (being MAG) will do well. I do not think it is going to outsell MW2 though since that is being released on multiple consoles and to multitudes of fans who (thanks to ActiVision's tendancy to repeat itself) already know *exactly* what they are getting. Its issues like these that are driving nails into a coffin which -- if this issue is left unchecked -- will soon contain the very essence of innovation. And that will be bad for gaming as a whole.
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