Biden leads Trump by 300k in Florida early voting

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2020/06/24/florida-democrats-lead-in-vote-by-mail-requests-jacksonville-voters-not-sold-on-rnc-criminal-justice-reform-gains-traction-no-audience-for-miami-presidential-debate-489621

Math— With about four months to go before Election Day, Florida Democrats have opened up a roughly 302,000 advantage in vote-by-mail enrollment over Republicans. During the 2016 election, Democrats held an advantage of about 8,800 in vote-by-mail enrollment.

Important?— Democrats view this as proof that they are getting in an edge in a state that slipped out of their grasp in the last two statewide elections. Juan Penalosa, the executive director for the Florida Democratic Party, called the numbers “striking” and said “Republicans should be worried because we’re not taking our foot of the gas.”

A familiar chorus— Ok, yes we have previously heard this optimistic pep talk out of Democrats and it did not pan out. Two things are playing a role in this gap between Democrats and Republicans. One of course is the coronavirus pandemic. The second is that President Donald Trump has been sharply criticizing vote-by-mail for weeks now even though the GOP in his adopted home state has long relied on it for electoral success.

On the ground— To Republican pollster Ryan Tyson what’s happening is just a reflection of current voter attitudes. He did a poll in June that showed more and more Republicans are saying they plan to vote on Election Day. He called it an “inconvenient fact” that more and more Democrats want to vote by mail instead of voting on Election Day. He added that Democrats just can’t assume that all these newly enrolled vote-by-mail voters will go ahead and send in their ballot. “I don’t think it tells us anything,” Tyson said. Stay tuned.

“I don’t think it tells us anything,” Tyson said. Stay tuned.

Yeah too early to tell, so many things can change.

But if the elections were TODAY, Trump would lose very very badly.

Change your title OP. It might confuse people. Anyway I am not shocked at this point. At this point I think there is a decent chance biden does better than clinton did in 1996 in Florida. Clinton won FL by about 5.70 points in 1996. I think biden wins it by 6 if he continues to poll at around a 9-10 point lead nationally.

SAD so much shrinkage no Storm can lift that poll.

What do you mean?

These aren't counted votes. No one is leading anybody "in early voting" at this point.

Lol @ polls. I guess nobody learned how ineffective they were in ‘16, eh?

Actually most polls landed well within the margin of error. The wrench in the works was the EC.

lol @ not understanding the details. but hey, if this tired and debunked answer still works for you, have at it.

At this point it's almost impossible for trump to win. Trump is way outside of the margin of error in most polls now by a good 5-10 points depending on the poll. Biden is leading by 10 points on average in most polls now. The but 2016 takes will be proven wrong in a few months time.

Lol @ not understand polls.

The polls were mostly right in 2016. The only state to truly get it wrong was Wisconsin. The difference is that Trump is well out of the margin of error, and it wouldn't surprise me. He's the most hated president in American history. Only non-college educated white men will vote for him, for obvious reasons. The base is simply not big enough.

This, also I don't like Biden but people are not understanding what type of a candidate he is. All you need to look at are the primaries. He got record turnout, surpasing even Obama when adjusting population growth. African Americans voted in literal droves, but he also got a lot of the older white and suburban voters that Hillary could not get in 2016.

People often forget how Trump barely won in 2016, it was a massively close election. Trump is running against a lvl. 1,000 candidate.

2016 polls were accurate.

Still months away.

You're completely right, but also, like, that's not actually *THAT* much time for Trump to try turning this around. Like, maybe of COVID just magically became dramatically better very quickly and the BLM protesters get most of the reforms they want and go home, but neither of those are likely to happen and even just one of these X factors can still probably keep Biden up +8.

The second wave is coming soon. August/September. Things aren't going to get better in November. We're actually bizzarly in a continuous wave, because the USA didn't fix their shit during the first one.

It's not fairly likely, but it is pretty easy.

The ones standing in the way of most of this administration's reelection hurdles are this administration and it's own party.

Pandemic: If they'd encourage distancing, mask usage, testing, and tracking (or really even a combination of just some of those) with the occasional short term localized stay at home order when an area starts getting out of hand they'd have decreasing numbers.

Economic: Get the pandemic under control and implement labor hoarding policies for those laid off/furloughed.

BLM: There's a bill in the House to address a number of low hanging fruit regarding police reform.

The Democrats either have already or are proposing to address each of these in various ways. Their political opposition is not opposing these, and like all presidents Trump would get much of the credit if they passed.

I'm going to say this: Don't count out Trump in November. Go out and vote. Do not get complacent. Bury him with our votes. This year is different as COVID could alter the landscape of voting. There is a chance that mail in votes are so large that we could not see a clear winner until a week after. Many states do not allow the counting prior to election day.

@zaryia: wrong

Also, down ballot matters immensely. Even if you think your presidential candidate is a shoe-in (or the other is a shoe in) and your vote won't matter in that race, the down ballot races are less likely to be and voting is still important in that situation.

We haven't gotten out of the first wave yet.

Yeah that' why I said continuous, this should have been finished weeks ago, but here we're.

The 2016 polls were accurate.

However the LAED Act will surely pass through.

People still remember that? I mean after the whole Trump protests shit, that's kind of nothing now lol.

@horgen: Oh Lord. Wonderful.

I know right. I also think senators are exempt from the law. True conservatives right there.

I wonder how many felons are gearing up to vote.

Good for them. If they served their time they deserve to vote.

@Stevo_the_gamer: considering many were probably locked up because of bidens crime bill while trump has passed the first step act I hope they realize this. :P

Bipartisan bill, current day Dems would go further. They probably will realize that too.

Creepy Joe vs 'Grab them by the pusy'. Such fine choices again!!!

Trump's done more for the black community than even Lincoln. He's said so himself!

This forum doesn't do well with following the nuances of how bills are crafted, supported, and passed.

Well at least Joe was mostly correct about Covid. Trump mostly has been incorrect about it, and has screwed up very badly.

I'm not expecting Trump to lose.

Not sure why anyone thinks it's okay to take the vote away from a felon actually. Better to welcome them back to society and hope they succeed then to continue the trend of crime.

@zaryia:

It doesn't mean anything. Most Americans do not believe in coronovirus. And both MAGAs and liberals are anti-vac and believe in Bill Gates conspiracies.

Biden just doesn't project an image of strength and leadership.

- He has this physique of a typical white plantation owner: tall, lanky, pale skin, white hair. Hardly a symbol to represent blacks and immigrants.

- He tries too hard to be likable, but it comes as fake and reeks of desperation

- His slogan is "Well...the alternative is Trump"

- Even if elected, again he doesn't project enough respect to go head to head with bad boy leaders like Russia, North Korea and China. He will look less than impressive in the summits with those wolves in the background.

- Trump is a typical red neck but at least he has a strong following. Biden relies on finicky BLM voters that will eat him alive if he ever says something not-PC. I mean he likes to touch people unapproprately in public, It's just a matter of time.

If I were Dems, I would ask Obama to return or look for another decent looking young black guy as a an urgent replacement. But it looks like Dems are not smart enough and just putting the same walking corpses of politicians every election that young gen can hardly relate to.

Anyway, good luck. Who ever wins, they both will suck.

@ivangrozny: I agree with much of what you say but calling trump a redneck... Thats disrespectful to rednecks, hes a NY millionaire lol I mean I guess he does have a very pro american platform emphasized on a love for america, america first, maga, ect ect. USA USA chants and all that jazz, so yeah i guess we can call trump a redneck now lol

@jeezers: The Democratic Party understands they can garner the votes of felons. I don't blame them on the strategy; afterall, demonizing/defunding law enforcement and decriminalization are two important building blocks for their platform.

@ivangrozny: Just about everything in your post is wrong.

@jeezers: LMAO! Trump is the most anti American president in history. His platform is about enriching himself at the expense of the worker.

Yeah but his base right now is uneducated white males and he appeals to them with his rhetoric...….

@LJS9502_basic: To be honest, I have long felt conservatives hate America and want to destroy it. Seems like they want to burn it to the ground so they can rebuild it under their control.

Happens when you refuse to get along with anyone.

Except they are wrong by betting on Biden. What America needs is a president who will end the social and political divide since Trump has been elected. What America needs it's another mild-mannnered, physically good-looking, moderate black president like Obama who Dems could sell as another messiah. That would finally give a USA some SJ respite it needs. It would sooth racial tensions and appease to both parties.

Obama had its flaws, he was heavily criticized by GOP, but, nevertheless, he was respected by all.

Do Dems actually think that blacks and latinos will look at Biden and say, "Yeah that rich 70-year old senile white guy that was born with a silver spoon in his mouth totally represents me and knows about racism and discrimination."? 🙄

Instead, what will happen is the following:

1. Trump will get his stable 30% of votes from his loyal MAGA cult followers. Biden will lead in polls, but during the election, a part of blacks and latinos will just boycott both candidates or vote for their local independent candidates. As a result, Biden will get less votes than expected and Trump will win again. Consequently, USA will enjoy another 4 years of political strife, social division, BLM and wild California snowflakes protesting and burning America.

2. If, by some miracle, Biden wins, that will not change anything. Biden will not be able to appease to anybody: not to Maga, not to blacks and latinos and not to libs. He just doesn't fit the role of a reconciliator. He's spinesless for maga standards, he's not black or minority, and he's not radical for California socialists standards. So, it will be another 4 years of social and political division.

Yes, and Democratic party is an exclusive club of old white rich people that pretend to care.

I remember you. You were fanboying for Miss "We came, we saw, he died", and now are you defending the Creepy Joe.

Felons don't get to vote, they are in jail.

Ex-felons do, as they 1000% should.