This is a slighty updated version of a prediction I made months ago. Biden wins by a bit over 10 points in my prediction. Montana and Texas are close with biden having a decent chance at flipping the latter state.
Neither is Wisconsin. One outlier poll had Biden up 17 points, and some others around 10 points. Though even in more reasonable results he's up 5 or 6 points.
Biden will win popular vote by greater margins than Hillary, GOP will try voter suppression tactics that will drag election out for weeks; the close call will be in the courts.
Biden will win popular vote by greater margins than Hillary, GOP will try voter suppression tactics that will drag election out for weeks; the close call will be in the courts.
He's really going at it with the voter and even vote suppression.
@comp_atkins: A lot of your map doesn't make much sense. If Biden is going to eek out a win he's going to do so with a win in WI and Maine while losing AZ. I think your goal was to get to 271, not to accurately gauge states they would win for either side.
There are lots of interactive maps that let you play out various election scenarios.
https://www.270towin.com/
Post your 2020 prediction maps here.
My guess: Biden ultimately takes it but it is VERY close.
There is a flaw in this map- Maine is split by congressional district and Southern Maine is nauseatingly liberal. ME-2 may go Trump, but thats all. I would say this isn't a bad take- but it would more likely be 273 Biden if I follow the rest of your choices.
Except, no way Biden gets AZ, and his chances in Michigan are very, very slim at best. He just never got the lead in early voted he needed to take Michigan. After riots in Kenosha and Philadelphia though, you can consider both Wisconsin and PA out of his reach now.
@comp_atkins: A lot of your map doesn't make much sense. If Biden is going to eek out a win he's going to do so with a win in WI and Maine while losing AZ. I think your goal was to get to 271, not to accurately gauge states they would win for either side.
actually didn't really notice how close it was getting until i was done clicking the states.
@eoten: Except there is. You have proven yourself to be hyper partisan and willing to twist anything in your favor. Right now early polling shows a big lead in favor Democrats, but no matter the lead you will cry it’s not enough.
But you have been told these are just what parties they are registered with not who they voted for. A Republican could vote for Biden and it would still show it as a Republican voted. You dismissed this fact.
Reply or not, I won’t let you lie in these forums.
@eoten: Except there is. You have proven yourself to be hyper partisan and willing to twist anything in your favor. Right now early polling shows a big lead in favor Democrats, but no matter the lead you will cry it’s not enough.
But you have been told these are just what parties they are registered with not who they voted for. A Republican could vote for Biden and it would still show it as a Republican voted. You dismissed this fact.
Reply or not, I won’t let you lie in these forums.
There isn't and you'll find out in less than a week. The victory won't be Traitor Joe's.
2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.
My best case scenario map has biden getting 416 EVs.My best case scenario map has biden flipping Montana because of the tightening race there on the pres level, ME-2 and NE-2. If biden does end up winning by 12 points a state like Montana could surprise us and flip
@super600: Montana is ruby red, I don’t see that flipping for a long time. I could however see Texas flipping soon. Thanks to more Mexicans coming up on voting age it may flip Texas.
@super600: Montana is ruby red, I don’t see that flipping for a long time. I could however see Texas flipping soon. Thanks to more Mexicans coming up on voting age it may flip Texas.
Trump’s support has collapsed in Montana. Polls now show him leading in Montana by like 5 points. Turnout is also pretty high there at the moment and a combination of marijuana legalization and strong downballot candidates being on the ballot might produce a surprise on election night there if biden wins by a double digit margin nationally.It’s not likely but a crazy election night scenario would have a state like Montana flipping
2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.
My best case scenario map has biden getting 416 EVs.My best case scenario map has biden flipping Montana because of the tightening race there on the pres level, ME-2 and NE-2. If biden does end up winning by 12 points a state like Montana could surprise us and flip
Both of you are going to be very, very disappointed if you think Biden is getting over 400 EC votes. He'd be lucky to reach 200. I mean come on. Florida, and Texas?
I'm being conservative and assuming a Trump win in GA, AZ, OH, IA, and FL. My second assumption is that PA and NC will be the deciding states. With that being said, if trump is losing GA he'll probably lose FL. If he loses OH he can't win PA or IA, as these states will likely swing in the same direction. Biden has cushion, Trump does not.
@mattbbpl: Texas is interesting because it's at least purple now. Not sure if they swing to blue this election but at some point I think they are going to lose Texas. May still be too early yet though.
2. Best possible outcome, but VERY UNLIKELY! I will post ones for Trump in a separate post.
My best case scenario map has biden getting 416 EVs.My best case scenario map has biden flipping Montana because of the tightening race there on the pres level, ME-2 and NE-2. If biden does end up winning by 12 points a state like Montana could surprise us and flip
Both of you are going to be very, very disappointed if you think Biden is getting over 400 EC votes. He'd be lucky to reach 200. I mean come on. Florida, and Texas?
Personally I see VA flipping red being more likely than NC flipping blue.
I see Minnesota flipping red before I see Montana flipping blue as well.
PA, OH, MN, WI are all in play for trump, consider that Montana is only worth 3 electoral votes and all these other states are worth 4-5 times more in EC votes than Montana, id be worried if i was a leftist.
Texas will become blue once it is urbanized enough, it is already going there.
It makes me wonder about those who support the Electoral college for Partisan reasons? Will they still favor it when the EC makes it nigh impossible for Republicans to win?
@Maroxad: They'll just allocate TX electoral votes by district rather than winner take all assuming they have the foresight to do so before losing control of the state governing bodies.
Thought this article convincingly explained that this race is close to over: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/five-reasons-to-believe-2020-wont-be-a-2016-sequel/616896/
Personally I see VA flipping red being more likely than NC flipping blue.
I see Minnesota flipping red before I see Montana flipping blue as well.
PA, OH, MN, WI are all in play for trump, consider that Montana is only worth 3 electoral votes and all these other states are worth 4-5 times more in EC votes than Montana, id be worried if i was a leftist.
PA is not generally a red state. And I can tell you that enthusiasm for trump is not as it was in the suburbs last cycle.
Texas has been the White Whale for the democrats for a while now. It'll remain out of reach for the time being.
All the internal and public polling data from state house and congressional district races I have seen in the last few months shows texas as a tossup. If trump manages to win texas it won't be by much. I also wouldn't trust targetsmart especially in states were it's hard to determine the partisan breakdown of the electorate like in Texas. Also there will always be a chunk of republicans that vote for the dem candidate and the same is true for the dems.
@eoten
I don't think my best case scenario will happen but in a landslide environment like the one we are in now it's possible some states no one ever expected to flip like Montana do end up flipping.
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