This would be my prediction, very close. A biden win not guaranteed.
Don't get overconfident over this though. Margins of error do exist, and Biden supporters could have been overrepresented in Independent and Republican camps, Trump supporters could be underrepresented in the Democrat camp.
@Vaasman: Pretty much. Democrats never win an unfair fight. Republicans just won a battle that could cause almost 400k ballots in Minnesota to not be counted. That is why I hate Republicans, they only win by cheating.
Yeah, Trump isn't going to lose any of the states he won in 2016. Those who supported him did so with the understanding that the media cannot be trusted to cover the news honestly. So the Russia investigation and faux impeachment did nothing but solidify their support.
There is a fairly large group of people who reluctantly, or didn't vote for him at all in 2016 because they actually believed some of the stories being pushed by republicans at the time that Trump was actually a leftist plant. An ally of the Clintons, a frequent donor of DNC campaigns just being put in the election to derail the chances of people like Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. Those people have seen that isn't true and will not hesitate to come out and vote for Trump in 2016. His support has grown.
The only chance Biden has is for the left to excite enough of the voter base on the left to not only make up what they failed to achieve in 2016, but also to offset the support that has grown for Trump since, and to do so without the level of enthusiasm they had for women when Hillary was running, and also to counter the number of democrats that see their party becoming too extreme, and will vote third party, or not at all. When you realize republicans have done WAY better at registering new voters this election cycle than last, and that Trump is leading, tied or at least very close in major swing states that Biden will need a massive lead in going into the third in order to win, it's not likely.
So Trump gets at least as many states as last year, but there were many states teetering on the edge, and it's safe to say he will collect a few of those.
@Maroxad: You got your Virginia’s mixed up on your map.
And why do you have Colorado and New Mexico red? Even Hillary win those. Biden should at least win every state she did.
Maybe we will see.
They are red because I painted the whole map red, and forgot to put Colorado and New Mexico blue :P Also, that ultimately depends on republican cheating.
@Maroxad: You got your Virginia’s mixed up on your map.
And why do you have Colorado and New Mexico red? Even Hillary win those. Biden should at least win every state she did.
Maybe we will see.
They are red because I painted the whole map red, and forgot to put Colorado and New Mexico blue :P Also, that ultimately depends on republican cheating.
Is that going to be your excuses after the election? It wasn't riots, people tired of Biden's lies, or the green new deal promising to destroy the energy sector, or the promise to raise taxes on all American's that cause Democrats to lose, you'll blame it on cheating because, how could any intelligent person not want riots and higher taxes right? But, it's what I expect from the side who cannot take any kind of responsibility for anything, be it running at a cop with a knife, getting drunk and knocked up at a party, it's never your faults, is it? Always somebody elses.
Listen, when Trump wins, it's because the policies and ideologies of the left absolutely disgust decent Americans, period. When it happens, own that, and own the fact that the echo chambers you lived in intentionally kept you ignorant of the reality that lead to the failure.
@eoten: Someone's bubble is about to burst, that's for sure. But I do appreciate the logic, vote for the president under who the riots occurred to stop the riots. Sounds legit.
@eoten: Someone's bubble is about to burst, that's for sure. But I do appreciate the logic, vote for the president under who the riots occurred to stop the riots. Sounds legit.
The riots started in 2014. Is your memory as shot as Biden's? It's also not Trump refusing to let police do their job, refusing to prosecute those arrested, or paying their bail so they can be released to riot the next night, is it?
@eoten: Someone's bubble is about to burst, that's for sure. But I do appreciate the logic, vote for the president under who the riots occurred to stop the riots. Sounds legit.
The riots started in 2014. Is your memory as shot as Biden's? It's also not Trump refusing to let police do their job, refusing to prosecute those arrested, or paying their bail so they can be released to riot the next night, is it?
If its not trumps fault for the riots why did trump blame Obama for riots?
@eoten: Someone's bubble is about to burst, that's for sure. But I do appreciate the logic, vote for the president under who the riots occurred to stop the riots. Sounds legit.
The riots started in 2014. Is your memory as shot as Biden's? It's also not Trump refusing to let police do their job, refusing to prosecute those arrested, or paying their bail so they can be released to riot the next night, is it?
If its not trumps fault for the riots why did trump blame Obama for riots?
Again, they started in 2014. Was Trump president then? And for that matter, why are the riots ONLY in blue states where the governors and mayors are preventing police from doing their jobs and refusing to prosecute rioters? Why are they not going on in red states where police are still allowed to do their jobs? Gee, hmm, I wonder.
This ain't rocket science. You're sorely mistaken if you think Americans are too stupid to see where the violence is coming from.
@eoten: Someone's bubble is about to burst, that's for sure. But I do appreciate the logic, vote for the president under who the riots occurred to stop the riots. Sounds legit.
The riots started in 2014. Is your memory as shot as Biden's? It's also not Trump refusing to let police do their job, refusing to prosecute those arrested, or paying their bail so they can be released to riot the next night, is it?
If its not trumps fault for the riots why did trump blame Obama for riots?
Again, they started in 2014. Was Trump president then? And for that matter, why are the riots ONLY in blue states where the governors and mayors are preventing police from doing their jobs and refusing to prosecute rioters? Why are they not going on in red states where police are still allowed to do their jobs? Gee, hmm, I wonder.
This ain't rocket science. You're sorely mistaken if you think Americans are too stupid to see where the violence is coming from.
If its not trumps fault for the riots why did trump blame Obama for riots?
"This is actually kinda stressing me out because for a LOT of the people I'm calling who's record show that they mailed their ballot in early, it shows that it has been cancelled. PLEASE, if you voted by mail and if you're worried about your ballot, go to http://iwillvote.com"
@Maroxad: You got your Virginia’s mixed up on your map.
And why do you have Colorado and New Mexico red? Even Hillary win those. Biden should at least win every state she did.
Maybe we will see.
They are red because I painted the whole map red, and forgot to put Colorado and New Mexico blue :P Also, that ultimately depends on republican cheating.
Is that going to be your excuses after the election? It wasn't riots, people tired of Biden's lies, or the green new deal promising to destroy the energy sector, or the promise to raise taxes on all American's that cause Democrats to lose, you'll blame it on cheating because, how could any intelligent person not want riots and higher taxes right? But, it's what I expect from the side who cannot take any kind of responsibility for anything, be it running at a cop with a knife, getting drunk and knocked up at a party, it's never your faults, is it? Always somebody elses.
Listen, when Trump wins, it's because the policies and ideologies of the left absolutely disgust decent Americans, period. When it happens, own that, and own the fact that the echo chambers you lived in intentionally kept you ignorant of the reality that lead to the failure.
As of september 2020, the protests have around 55% support.
Biden is nowhere NEAR as dishonest as Trump is. Just go look up any fact checker on the debates.
Biden doesnt support the green new deal, and it wont destroy the energy sector. If anything it looks to keep it viable for the next few decades to come. When fossil fuels are getting increasingly obsolete. Biden will only raise them on the top 1%, unlike Trump who in the first days of office ended up raising the taxes on the middle class.
Not accept responsibility? Have you even looked at Republicans? We are being pragmatic, utilitarian in our ethics, not deontologist. And there is a reason for that. It simply put works better.
Trump's odds are looking slimmer every day. Trump could still win, but to say that we know for certain if Trump or Biden wins, is just being dishonest.
Texas has been the White Whale for the democrats for a while now. It'll remain out of reach for the time being.
All the internal and public polling data from state house and congressional district races I have seen in the last few months shows texas as a tossup. If trump manages to win texas it won't be by much. I also wouldn't trust targetsmart especially in states were it's hard to determine the partisan breakdown of the electorate like in Texas. Also there will always be a chunk of republicans that vote for the dem candidate and the same is true for the dems.
I don't think my best case scenario will happen but in a landslide environment like the one we are in now it's possible some states no one ever expected to flip like Montana do end up flipping.
My guess of tightening polls hasn't really emerged. Some closing of state polls has happened in AZ, PA, and FL but other areas have widened like MN, WI, GA, and MI. I think Trump's best chances at this point are to steal the election via law suits. But he would also need to have a polling error that is wider than 2016 to happen concurrently.
Pretty disgusting that it's come to having to fight for votes that have been submitted to be freaking counted.
I mean Eoten unironically posted a map with Colorado, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Mexico all going red even though all of those massively favor Biden or aren't even up for grabs at all. If even half of those go to Trump I will eat my foot.
The margins for MN on the pres level have been D+1.5, D+6.7, D+10.2,D+3.5, D+2.4 in the last few elections. Yeah it's kinda close in competitive elections but in democrat presidential wins it's typically won by a very comfortable margins. I think biden wins MN by like 11 points this year.
@Maroxad: You got your Virginia’s mixed up on your map.
And why do you have Colorado and New Mexico red? Even Hillary win those. Biden should at least win every state she did.
Maybe we will see.
They are red because I painted the whole map red, and forgot to put Colorado and New Mexico blue :P Also, that ultimately depends on republican cheating.
Is that going to be your excuses after the election? It wasn't riots, people tired of Biden's lies, or the green new deal promising to destroy the energy sector, or the promise to raise taxes on all American's that cause Democrats to lose, you'll blame it on cheating because, how could any intelligent person not want riots and higher taxes right? But, it's what I expect from the side who cannot take any kind of responsibility for anything, be it running at a cop with a knife, getting drunk and knocked up at a party, it's never your faults, is it? Always somebody elses.
Listen, when Trump wins, it's because the policies and ideologies of the left absolutely disgust decent Americans, period. When it happens, own that, and own the fact that the echo chambers you lived in intentionally kept you ignorant of the reality that lead to the failure.
As of september 2020, the protests have around 55% support.
Biden is nowhere NEAR as dishonest as Trump is. Just go look up any fact checker on the debates.
Biden doesnt support the green new deal, and it wont destroy the energy sector. If anything it looks to keep it viable for the next few decades to come. When fossil fuels are getting increasingly obsolete. Biden will only raise them on the top 1%, unlike Trump who in the first days of office ended up raising the taxes on the middle class.
Not accept responsibility? Have you even looked at Republicans? We are being pragmatic, utilitarian in our ethics, not deontologist. And there is a reason for that. It simply put works better.
Trump's odds are looking slimmer every day. Trump could still win, but to say that we know for certain if Trump or Biden wins, is just being dishonest.
Taxes were lowered on the middle class, not raised, and the green new deal bullshit will result in skyrocketing taxes and costs of living on the middle class as well. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the 1% ain't paying your 60-70% tax schemes, they'll use their money and move their businesses to other countries. How wil you pay for that shit then?
Taxes were lowered on the middle class, not raised, and the green new deal bullshit will result in skyrocketing taxes and costs of living on the middle class as well. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the 1% ain't paying your 60-70% tax schemes, they'll use their money and move their businesses to other countries. How wil you pay for that shit then?
It's over Eoten, don't come back here and say we didn't warn you when trump loses. We don't want any 'Why didn't you tell me...' posts. You are being told now, trump has lost.
The margins for MN on the pres level have been D+1.5, D+6.7, D+10.2,D+3.5, D+2.4 in the last few elections. Yeah it's kinda close in competitive elections but in democrat presidential wins it's typically won by a very comfortable margins. I think biden wins MN by like 11 points this year.
I agree. MN will stay blue with close to 10 point in favor of Biden. It remained blue during a year where people hated Hillary. It will swing far in the other direction this year. Trump's suburban support has crumbled in MN.
Taxes were lowered on the middle class, not raised, and the green new deal bullshit will result in skyrocketing taxes and costs of living on the middle class as well. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the 1% ain't paying your 60-70% tax schemes, they'll use their money and move their businesses to other countries. How wil you pay for that shit then?
It's over Eoten, don't come back here and say we didn't warn you when trump loses. We don't want any 'Why didn't you tell me...' posts. You are being told now, trump has lost.
Yeah, I can't wait to rub it in when Trump wins. And you know as well as I do that he is going to.
Taxes were lowered on the middle class, not raised, and the green new deal bullshit will result in skyrocketing taxes and costs of living on the middle class as well. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the 1% ain't paying your 60-70% tax schemes, they'll use their money and move their businesses to other countries. How wil you pay for that shit then?
It's over Eoten, don't come back here and say we didn't warn you when trump loses. We don't want any 'Why didn't you tell me...' posts. You are being told now, trump has lost.
Yeah, I can't wait to rub it in when Trump wins. And you know as well as I do that he is going to.
Na, its already over, you will have nothing to rub :(
Taxes were lowered on the middle class, not raised, and the green new deal bullshit will result in skyrocketing taxes and costs of living on the middle class as well. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the 1% ain't paying your 60-70% tax schemes, they'll use their money and move their businesses to other countries. How wil you pay for that shit then?
Remember this?
Under the new tax law, homeowners are now prohibited from deducting interest on home equity loans if they use those funds for unexpected medical emergencies, to pay for college education, or for any purpose other than home improvement. This retroactive provision applies even to future interest payments on loans taken out by homeowners in the past. Homeowners also are no longer allowed to deduct property taxes on their homes to the extent that state and local taxes, including property taxes, are more than $10,000.
And those tax cuts you are thinking of were temporary. Once those temporary boons end, The middle class will end up paying more.
Likewise with spending and the deficit increasing like it does, Tax Hikes will be almost guaranteed. Only difference is, under Biden they would go back to the people, as opposed to vanity projects like Space Force and the Border Wall.
Why are you still going on about the Green New Deal, it is irrelevant as far as Biden is concerned. Personally I think it's heart is in the right place, but the means seem a bit unrealistic. But the world needs to move away from fossil fuels. The energy sector looks to be dominated by solar power in the near future, so capitlizing on that and dominating that energy sector should be paramount. And Climate Change is a massive existential threat, even if you don't care much about sustainability, do you really want a climate refugee crisis? One, so big it will make the current refugee crisis look miniscule.
I dont think they will leave as much as you think they will. I am not saying we will tax them even close to what Bernie Suggested, (let alone what Roosevelt did). But their tax loopholes need to be closed, stop wasteful spending, and yes, raise taxes even on the middle class and lower classes, then use that money to provide more cost efficient healthcare, resulting in a net loss of costs. I don't go by anecdotes, but there is a reason people are so dissatisfied with the current healthcare in the US.
I for one don't mind paying higher taxes if it means my net costs still go down.
But this is irrelevent to the topic. The democratic party is more popualr than the Republican party (as of now).
Using the same source one of your YouTube vids used. It has been further updated. Hmm, looks like it has now backfired on the narrative you are trying to push xD
Ayo trump accounts that signed up on 2020, wheres that red wave at? Are you gonna stick around after your great leader shits the bed or will you magically vanish from here?
On a side-note, Biden is only 600 votes away from Georgia. Think he will take it? Either way it will be super close. Even if Biden wins Georgia, it is a display of why I dislike the Electoral College. That state was practically 50/50 yet one candidate gets all the votes.
@super600: WOW you are completely out of touch with reality.
375 to 165
You need to stop watching CNN.
I don't think my prediction was that bad compared to others in this thread.
LOL what happen to eoten and his mostly red map?
No clue. States like MN, NH,VA were never going to flip red in this election. As we learned in all of these states the only reason they were close last time was because third parties won over a bunch of obama's 2012 supporters. Trump also significantly hurt his chances of winning MN because of his attacks on ilhan omar and minoritiy groups that lived in the twin cities.
@super600: This election was a wake up call to the democrats. Turn back now or die in 2024. Republicans added seats in the senate to keep majority and added as much as 13 seats in the house. Democrats were supposed to completely dominate and they didn’t. This was with 4 years of big tech, media manipulation. Minority republican support surged under Trump. Especially black voters and latinos.
If in fact Trump loses, regardless Republicans are in the driver seat in 2022 and 2024. The numbers do not lie. Republican support is gaining huge traction. You don’t have to like the guy, but Trump has forever changed the Republican Party and they will be incredibly hard to beat going forward. This thing is far from over.
@BlackShirt20: Are you drunk? The Democrats kept the house, made in roads in some state legislatures and no, the Republicans did not add seats in the senate. They gained one in Alabama and lost Colorado and Arizona and still might lose one in Georgia.
Trump again lost all age groups under 50, he lost support with white men, also with minorities he did slightly better. But he still got more than doubled up with Asians and Hispanics and more than tripled with black people. The Hispanic one is mostly Cuban and would be lower without them while there was evidence both started to break for Biden in Texas.
This was a wake up call to Republicans and they are not in the driver seat. You are just trying to change the narrative. The voters have spoken, they told the GOP turn back now or die.
FYI, he didn’t expand Republican minority support, he expanded his own. He still did worse than Bush and in fact Reagan won 14% of the Black in 1980. These numbers were in the same range they always were. Wake up, how can he do so well with minorities but still be at risk of losing 2 ruby red states?
@thegreatchomp: he gained slightly with minorities? Lol he gained 4% more black male votes and 4% more black woman votes. He gained 16% more of the Latino vote. He gained 20% of the Muslim vote. All those are great improvements since 2016.
What on earth are you talking about? You think Republicans underperformed yet the Democratic Party is literally in panic mode.
This election was a complete failure for the DNC regardless of who wins the presidency. All that pandering to minorities. All the protest, all the riots, all the violence in the streets, the media manipulation, all the Hollywood lectures. Everything fell on deaf ears. Black Americans are flocking to the Republican Party. This is a fact. It’s gonna be really hard for democrats to win future elections if they continue to push racism and sexism as the biggest issues in this country.
@BlackShirt20: Trump is one of the few presidents who failed re-election, worse against a senile candidate who wasn't fully supported by a huge segment of the democratic electorate.
@BlackShirt20: Yet Bush did better with Hispanics than Trump and Reagan with Black people. Trump expanded his own but still performed worse than past Republicans.
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