UK election results 2019: Brexit Party leads, but Lib Dems score second place, leaving Tories and Labour in turmoil

BBC

The Brexit Party was the clear winner in the UK's European elections, with the pro-EU Lib Dems coming second.

The Conservatives and Labour suffered heavy losses, with the former heading for less than 10% of the vote.

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage said the two main parties "could learn a big message" from the results.

Overall, out of 64 MEPs declared so far, Mr Farage's party has won 28, the Lib Dems 15, Labour 10, Greens seven, the Tories three and Plaid Cymru one.

All 28 EU member states are electing MEPs to the European Parliament - the EU's law-making body. Overall, the big centre-right and centre-left blocs lost ground, amid a surge in support for liberals, Greens and nationalists.

The UK had been due to leave the EU on 29 March, but when that deadline was missed, participation in the election became mandatory.

The Brexit Party topped the polls in every region of England apart from London. It also dominated in Wales, with Plaid Cymru second.

Scotland is yet to formally declare, but with most votes counted, the SNP is on course for a resounding victory, with about 38% of the vote.

Meanwhile, Northern Ireland's count does not begin until Monday, with the results expected on Tuesday.

Well... Brexit Party winning most seats... yikes! But I did find an interesting take on this on Twitter.

Northern Ireland's votes may not be counted yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sinn Fein won like the SNP won Scotland, and if/when that happens, it'll be left nationalists (Sturgeon, McDonald) vs far-right nationalist (Farage), battling over the fates of Belfast and Glasgow.

EDIT: Northern Ireland's results... Alliance Party in the top three, but DUP and Sinn Fein still top two. At least the Northern Irish kept consistent in their anti-Brexit stance.

Still though, Labour and Tories dun f***ed it up!

Cool - there’s hope for the UK yet!

Your poll is irrelevant. UK voters already voted overwhelmingly to leave.

Respect the vote, make Brexit happen.

What's the point? UK representatives will have to **** off in a few months anyway.

Respect the vote, let Belfast reunite with Dublin.

Respect the vote, make Scexit happen.

Looks like nationalist groups are going to become more and more stronger in the coming years. Even in the USA.

Well, I will be playing video games during that time...

Know plenty of people who vote greens, nothing to do with brexit for them.

So be it.

This is the flip side to a two part system. You just get divided and conquered by the more unified party.

I’d rather have two-party and get some of what I want than have 4-5 different parties and get steamrolled every election.

Now if only our voting system was better.

If the totals were presented as a binary choice in a second referendum, the result would have been:

• Remain: 55.3%
• Leave: 44.7%

YouGov polls show a majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision.

But they weren't.

There has only been one vote directly related to Brexit.

It took place on 23 June 2016, Leave won with 51.89% of the vote.

Considering all the results in the EU, the next 5 years are going to be a process of the European society coming to terms with some important and sensitive differences. Arguments that some won't want to hear, probably a lot of shouting. A high contrast in the people elected. Most of them raising good points. I think the people may come out of this stronger and more united despite nationalism scoring high. I hope that the people can learn from each other fast enough to refocus on things that need to change about the EU inner workings itself, and solving the bigger problems.

Hahaha, that's what we all do XD

Most voters and Brits want to remain as of this month of May 2019. This isn't a debatable fact. This was seen in both the latest vote (actual results) and ALL polls (estimation).

Voting:

No matter which way you cut it, a clear majority of voters in this election went for Remain-oriented parties:

Polling (Nigh Identical match with observable results from above):

1.

Brexit: Political will of the people 'must be in question' as 55 per cent now want to stay in EU, poll finds

Brexit has ceased to be the “will of the people” and in a second referendum 55 per cent would vote Remain, analysis of British Social Attitudes Surveyrespondents has suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-will-of-people-poll-leave-remain-eu-second-referendum-vote-centre-social-research-curtice-a8839996.html

2.

This large of a gap is as clear cut as it gets, without a single poll showing otherwise. It's a wash. The fact that Brexit would EASILY lose a second referendum shows me how much they "respect the vote". I guess petty partisan politics is live and well in UK too, not just US.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and Brexit supporters inside the Conservative Party are now likely to fight tooth and nail against a second referendum — they know they will lose.

The amount of people who voted for a remain party vs. BREXIT matches with all remain vs leave polling.

It's not even a question, most British want to remain.

"Will of the people" is all BS.

@zaryia said:

@Master_Live said:

@zaryia said:

@Sevenizz said:

Cool - there’s hope for the UK yet!

Your poll is irrelevant. UK voters already voted overwhelmingly to leave.

@Master_Live said:

Respect the vote, make Brexit happen.

If the totals were presented as a binary choice in a second referendum, the result would have been:

• Remain: 55.3%
• Leave: 44.7%

YouGov polls show a majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision.

But they weren't.

There has only been one vote directly related to Brexit.

It took place on 23 June 2016, Leave won with 51.89% of the vote.

Most voters and Brits want to remain as of this month of May 2019. This isn't a debatable fact. This was seen in both the latest vote (actual results) and polls (estimation).

Voting:

No matter which way you cut it, a clear majority of voters in this election went for Remain-oriented parties:

Polling:

This large of a gap is as clear cut as it gets. The fact that Brexit would EASILY lose a second referendum shows me how much they "respect the vote". I guess petty partisan politics is live and well in UK too, not just US.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and Brexit supporters inside the Conservative Party are now likely to fight tooth and nail against a second referendum — they know they will lose.

EU is a proxy vote, it might suggest something, but there are other inputs which can confound the results.

Which is better:

A vote that asked a specific question but took place 3 years ago

or

a vote that took place this week but doesn't directly addresses Brexit?

No matter how hard you try, the one that took 3 years is better since you can't never be sure that the one that took place this week means what you think it means (no matter how much you think it means what you think it means).

As for polling: I like polling, polling is a friend of mine but again, the poll that matters took place 3 years ago.

Which brings us to the question of legitimacy. For how long does that vote that took place 3 years ago remains a valid representation of the Will of the People. People learn new information and incorporates said information to their decision making, and it might very well be true that sentiment has change regarding voter's preference for Brexit over Remain.

But you aren't going to convince me to take the results of any particular 1,000 or 100,000 individuals' poll over the valid, free and democratic exercise that took place 3 years ago in that referendum.

So how long does the vote remains valid? Once would certainly want to avoid the appearance and matter of fact simply wanting a "do over" because the elites didn't get the results they were hoping for. No mathematical equation to answer this question but certainly the farther away from the date of the results the more you can question if they represent the current Will of People (hence why we make elected officials go to elections every so often to renovate their mandate).

The longer it takes, the more persuasive the case for a Second Referendum becomes.

But at the end of the day: there has only been one vote that directly addresses Brexit. That result should be respected and UK politicians should stop dithering and get on with it.

BTW: it is bad form to simply post graphs from polls (or any article for that matter) and not link to the original source. Bad habit for a lot of people here in GS and all over the internet.

That doesn't mean, of course, that after some time out of the EU, the UK government may seek to re-enter the Union. But the People need to be tought a lesson. Elections matter, referendums matter, plebiscites matter. You either vote or you don't. You either inform yourself or you don't. And you live with the consequences of your actions.

And by the way and issue as complex as this shouldn't have been part of a plebiscite (it was technically a plebiscite not a referendum) in the first place or at least not how it took place.

And that's that.

Yes, 37% of population is will of the people. You need to go back to school.

@Master_Live said:

@zaryia said:

@Master_Live said:

@zaryia said:

If the totals were presented as a binary choice in a second referendum, the result would have been:

• Remain: 55.3%
• Leave: 44.7%

YouGov polls show a majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision.

But they weren't.

There has only been one vote directly related to Brexit.

It took place on 23 June 2016, Leave won with 51.89% of the vote.

Most voters and Brits want to remain as of this month of May 2019. This isn't a debatable fact. This was seen in both the latest vote (actual results) and polls (estimation).

Voting:

No matter which way you cut it, a clear majority of voters in this election went for Remain-oriented parties:

Polling:

This large of a gap is as clear cut as it gets. The fact that Brexit would EASILY lose a second referendum shows me how much they "respect the vote". I guess petty partisan politics is live and well in UK too, not just US.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and Brexit supporters inside the Conservative Party are now likely to fight tooth and nail against a second referendum — they know they will lose.

EU is a proxy vote, it might suggest something, but there are other inputs which can confound the results.

Which is better:

A vote that asked a specific question but took place 3 years ago

or

a vote that took place this week but doesn't directly addresses Brexit?

Fine. Direct Question:

Brexit: Political will of the people 'must be in question' as 55 per cent now want to stay in EU, poll finds

Brexit has ceased to be the “will of the people” and in a second referendum 55 per cent would vote Remain, analysis of British Social Attitudes Surveyrespondents has suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-will-of-people-poll-leave-remain-eu-second-referendum-vote-centre-social-research-curtice-a8839996.html

All polls show the same thing.

Voting results mesh nearly exactly with them.

Most Brits do not want to leave as of 2019. That's just a fact.

What is with the generic ad-hominem? This is especially unwise when you are objectively wrong on the matter at hand:

Brexit: Political will of the people 'must be in question' as 55 per cent now want to stay in EU, poll finds

Brexit has ceased to be the “will of the people” and in a second referendum 55 per cent would vote Remain, analysis of British Social Attitudes Survey respondents has suggested.

That's the thing about these predictions, they are not always correct. They predicted quite confidently that remain would win significantly the first time, look what happened.

Cannot say I give a damn about these predictions anyway, I was only originally saying the majority of people stayed at home on Thursday. We will see what happens in the coming months.

It's a scientific poll, not a prediction. And the polls meshed with the actual voting results of remain vs leave parties.

@zaryia said:

@Master_Live said:

@zaryia said:

@Master_Live said:

@zaryia said:

If the totals were presented as a binary choice in a second referendum, the result would have been:

• Remain: 55.3%
• Leave: 44.7%

YouGov polls show a majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision.

But they weren't.

There has only been one vote directly related to Brexit.

It took place on 23 June 2016, Leave won with 51.89% of the vote.

Most voters and Brits want to remain as of this month of May 2019. This isn't a debatable fact. This was seen in both the latest vote (actual results) and polls (estimation).

Voting:

No matter which way you cut it, a clear majority of voters in this election went for Remain-oriented parties:

Polling:

This large of a gap is as clear cut as it gets. The fact that Brexit would EASILY lose a second referendum shows me how much they "respect the vote". I guess petty partisan politics is live and well in UK too, not just US.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and Brexit supporters inside the Conservative Party are now likely to fight tooth and nail against a second referendum — they know they will lose.

EU is a proxy vote, it might suggest something, but there are other inputs which can confound the results.

Which is better:

A vote that asked a specific question but took place 3 years ago

or

a vote that took place this week but doesn't directly addresses Brexit?

Fine. Direct Question:

Brexit: Political will of the people 'must be in question' as 55 per cent now want to stay in EU, poll finds

Brexit has ceased to be the “will of the people” and in a second referendum 55 per cent would vote Remain, analysis of British Social Attitudes Surveyrespondents has suggested.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-will-of-people-poll-leave-remain-eu-second-referendum-vote-centre-social-research-curtice-a8839996.html

All polls show the same thing.

Voting results mesh nearly exactly with them.

Most Brits do not want to leave as of 2019. That's just a fact.

I know you are not trying to substitute the results of a referendum of 33,500,000 people with the results of private poll of 3,300.

That's silly and you either know it and are arguing on bad faith or I overestimated you.

On phone so can't link, but I just read that anti-Brexit support did grow in Northern Ireland, but DUP is still one of the leading parties there. Damn...

@zaryia: Irrelevant. They already voted to leave. It’s called democracy.

It's not my fault you don't get how scientific polling and statistics works, 3,300 is a fine sample size. We have similar sized polls for 350 million people here in USA, and on average they are highly accurate (for 2016 alone they werewithin 1.2% on the mark). National polls are typically highly accurate.

I'm not here to debate objective data. We see this through multiple polls (unless you can show the methodology of both is incorrect) and observable voting counts in 2019. Furthermore, all of these poll results matched the leave party vs. remain party actual OBSERVED results. Not that anyone who knows how stats work needed it, but that shows us those polls were on the mark. I can say with an extremely high degree of certainty that a majority of Brits want to "remain". I have multiple data sets showing this. In fact I can't find any data set showing otherwise from March 2019 and onward. This isn't debatable.

However what is debatable is if there should be a second referendum. And if the will of Brits in 2016 is more important than their will in 2019.

"don't get how scientific polling and statistics works",

That's cute.

By definition the larger the sample the closer the survey is to accurately describing whatever the survey is trying to measure (leaving aside the possibility of bias).

The variance on poll of 3,330 (a sample of 1,200 shall suffice) can't match the referendum since the referendum isn't an approximation but the actual parameter.

Polls can and should inform the policies a government but in this case a much larger poll, taken on 23 June 2016 overrides any subsequent poll (for the time being). Otherwise the tail wags the dog.

The referendum is the only official vote that has directly ascertained the voter's will. So unless you think official governmental policy should be dictated by polling over the referendum results the official policy of the government of the United Kingdom shall be to leave the European Union as soon as possible.

The EU shouldn't grant any further extension beyond the 31st October 2019.

Enough is enough.

What's up with people having so much trouble understanding probability and statistics?

When Brexiters want to do it in case they lose the first one, then it's "democracy". When the UK politicians vote for/against the same deal 3 times - it's democracy.

But when "remain" wants a second vote after seeing the shitshow - iT IS nOt deMoCRatiC. Why? Are the "leave" voters not allowed to participate in the second referendum?

What's next? The US does not need another presidential election, because the people already voted for Trump? GTFO.

@rmpumper: Did our posts get deleted?

Populism is a disease. And like measles it keeps coming back. The party and candidate I voted for in my EU election was SPECIFICALLY anti-populist.

Ok, never mind, they are back up.

Indeed. No matter what side of the aisle you're on. It's why I'm not generally too fond of Michael Moore (a liberal populist) most of the time (even though I still want to watch Fahrenheit 11/9.

I find it hilarious that Carl Benjamin almost single handedly destroyed UKIP. He was warned.

Damn, the UK f*cked itself hard. I hope these Brexiters understand how awful this will be with no deal when they leave. Mind boggling that they even put it up for a vote in the first place.

Idiots.

I think Brexit is a bad idea, but i live in the US. I defer to my british colleagues for their opinion on this matter.

The problem with trying to redo public opinion on something like this, is that it's heavily influenced by the behaviour of politicians since the vote.

We have a parliament of remainers, who've tried very hard to make every possible type of brexit unfeasible. It was perfectly clear that this is being done in bad faith when they voted to take no-deal off the table. That's essentially negotiation suicide. Even if you think a deal is absolutely necessary, you NEED to pretend no-deal is still possible as a bargaining chip with the EU.

This is why any kind of second referendum would be seen as illegitimate by a large number of Leave voters. We (leave voters) don't believe things would have gone so badly if the MPs had been leavers (or had just adopted the leave vote for the sake of democracy). We think it's been deliberately derailed. Which is basically just a strategy for reversing votes you don't like. If it goes the way you want, just happily deliver that result with zero mess and commotion. If it goes the wrong way, make as much mess as possible to scare people, and then demand a recount. It's basically a strategy that always allows you to preserve the status quo.

Sargon destroyed nothing. He had no real impact on anything because he has no name recognition at the level of national politics. Farage clearly destroyed UKIP. People just follow him and don't care what the party is.

@garywood69: Leader of UKIP Swindon, quit because of him. The party had ALL of it's remaining female MEP's leave the party, specifically because of him.

The entirety of Gloucestershire UKIP leadership resigned specifically because of him

@vl4d_l3nin:

UKIP no longer have any MEPs. So how could MEPs quit because of him?

And why did these people quit exactly? Just because of his dumb rape joke?

None of that changes the fact that what destroyed the party is that all of their voters just followed Farage.

@garywood69: Months ago, when they did have MEP's, precisely because of his dumb rape joke that he refused to apologize for. Dude has no idea how to be a politician. Every drop of milkshake deserved to be on his face

@vl4d_l3nin:

Oh they quit to join the Brexit Party! Lol not quite how you made it sound. And quitting the party doesn't lead you to lose your status as MEP.

So they basically quit nothing meaningful and just joined a more popular party that represented the same positions. There's not really much of a story there. Farage has obviously jumped at the chance to try and paint UKIP as bad as possible since he left. It's obviously in his interest to do so. It makes his new party look like the more moderate option (which they're trying to do so they can take as many tory voters as possible).

I don't think Sargon's necessarily any worse at it than anyone else. I mean Anne Widdecome won his particular region in the elections for the Brexit Party and then a week later she's on TV saying that science will hopefully cure homosexuality. It's dumb to think that a few stupid comments decides politics. That's really not what people vote on.