Forgive me if I save some typing effort and just copy & paste
One of the most often repeated SW myths is that MGS might be a good game, but it's not a system seller.
Proponents often proceed by way of three arguments, which I'll refute individually.
Argument #1: MGS is not mainstream.
No, it's not, but that doesn't mean it isn't a system seller. The concept of a "system seller" is difficult to define clearly, but we all have some general idea of what it means. If I might make an attempt: a "system seller" is a game or franchise that moves millions of units and is considered one of the most powerful reasons for why people buy a particular platform.
In this sense, MGS most certainly fits the definition.
Sales of Metal Gear Solid (PS) as of 2002 were at 6.6 million worldwide.
Sales of Metal Gear Solid 2: The Sons of Liberty (PS2) as of 2006 were at over 7 million worldwide.
Sales of Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater (PS2) as of 2007 were at 3.7 million worldwide (not including Subsistence).
On the Playstation, Metal Gear Solid sales followed only Gran Turismo, Final Fantasy, Tomb Raider, and Crash Bandicoot, all of which are considered system sellers for the Playstation. Out of thousands of Playstation titles, MGS was the seventh best selling game on the platform.
On the Playstation 2, Metal Gear Solid 2 sales followed only Grand Theft and Gran Turismo, both of which are considered major system sellers. It outsold such system moving franchises as Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, and Dragon Quest. Out of thousands of Playstation 2 titles, Metal Gear Solid 2 was the sixth best selling game on the platform.
Metal Gear Solid 3, the latest and least popular of the MGS games, followed close behind MGS2 in ninth place out of all Playstation 2 games. It still beat popular games like Dragon Quest VIII, Devil May Cry, and Kingdom Hearts II.
No, MGS is not mainstream, but the numbers show that it is beyond question a system seller for Playstation platforms.
Argument #2: MGS sales are only a fraction of Playstation and PS2's huge userbase.
True. But again, this fact does not mean the franchise is not a system seller.
Two things to consider. First, there weren't 130 million PS2 owners when MGS2 launched in November 2001. The Playstation 2 was barely a year old. The fact of the matter is that MGS2 was a tremendous help to get the Playstation 2's momentum going and establish a strong install base.
Second, if MGS2 is only a fraction of the PS2's userbase, so is Grand Theft Auto. And Gran Turismo.
But would anyone venture to suggest that these two franchises are not system sellers? The bare-bones truth is that when evaluating whether a game is a system seller on the Playstation and PS2 platforms, the ratio of game sales to install base is meaningless, because the install bases of those two platforms are gigantic, spread across a huge demographic, and thus diminish any franchise's sales to a fraction of their total.
So just because every franchise on PS and PS2 is a fraction of the install base, the PS and PS2 have no system sellers? That's obviously nonsensical. With install bases that huge, there must have been a healthy amount of system sellers for both PS and PS2.
MGS is one of them because like all the other franchises indubitably considered "system sellers" on Playstation platforms, it moves millions of units per iteration and provides a powerful incentive for people to purchase the platform.
Argument 3: MGS is a system seller, but the series is on the decline
The third argumentative approach is to concede that MGS is a system-selling franchise, but focus on the relatively low sales of MGS3 compared to MGS and MGS2, and hence assert that the series is dropping off the map.
This, I agree, is a possibility, but a highly unlikely one. More likely than not, MGS4 will be the Playstation 3's first big system seller, and I'll explain why.
The argument that MGS3 sold less than MGS2, and therefore MGS4 will sell less than MGS3, assumes a linear slope of decline in sales for the series. This of course, is an entirely unsubstantiated assumption. For example, Gran Turismo (Playstation) sold 10.5 million, GT2 (PS) sold 8.5 million, GT3 (PS2) sold 11 million, and GT4 (PS2) sold 8.79 million. As you can see, sales trends for GT games have been anything but linear, yet no one would suggest that GT is not a system seller, or that GT5 will sell less than GT4 because GT4 sold less than GT3.
Like the Gran Turismo series, MGS games have traditionally been a showcase for Playstation platforms.At trade shows like E3 and TGS, crowds would jam the convention floor with their mouths agape at the technical and aesthetic achievement of the debut MGS trailer.
Given that MGS3 was a late game on the Playstation 2, its debut had nowhere close the impact as MGS or MGS2. Its controls were also more complex than ever, creating a higher than usual learning curve and thus limiting itself to a narrower audience.
Unlike MGS3, MGS4 was a return to form for the series, as its debut at TGS in November 2005 literally brought the industry to a halt (those of you on the forums then will remember).
It had the same impact as MGS and MGS2 in terms of generating that instantaneous and universal reaction of awe at the first time Snake's profile was shown. And Kojima Productions has worked tirelessly to streamline the controls for a broader audience, as evidenced by the ample gameplay footage available.
MGS4's hype continues to this day, and the level of anticipation for this title far exceeds anything prior to MGS3. At Tokyo Game Show this year, Gamespot reported that even with a record 48 kiosks, attendees still waited up to 3 and a half hours to play the demo, and packed the show floor to see the new trailer.
Seasoned industry analyst Michael Pachter even suggests that Sony may adjust its pricing next year to coincide with the launch of "blockbuster games Grand Theft Auto IV and PS3 exclusive Metal Gear Solid 4." Source
Whether Sony will take such action is irrelevant to the purposes of this thread. The purpose is to argue that MGS is a system selling franchise and that MGS4 has tremendous potential to duplicate the success of MGS and MGS2. Analysts support the point by reiterating it and basing their projections on it.
People might say that MGS4 will sell less than MGS3, and that the series is dropping off the map. If I were to bet, I'd say that the MGS series will follow a similar pattern to the GT series. As the technical showcase for the Playstation 3 and the debut MGS title on that console, MGS4 will more likely than not move millions of Playstation 3's and continue its reputation as a system selling franchise for Playstation platforms.
Addendum: A certain poster has challenged me on the point that I did not show a sales spike immediately after the launch of an MGS game, and thus I have not demonstrated that MGS is a system seller. This individual claims that MGS games may have sold in a slow trickle, and thus cannot be said to have pushed sales of the PS2 console.
Given that MGS and MGS2 (the system sellers of the franchise) launched so long ago, it is difficult to obtain data on sales trends. Nevertheless, here is even more evidence to bolster my position, from an article published by gamespot the month after MGS2 launched:
Sony releases more Playstation 2 sales figures
The Playstation 2 is doing quite well despite two new competitors on the market.
Sony Computer Entertainment America has announced that it has sold 1.5 million units of the Playstation 2 since the week of Thanksgiving helping to establish an installed user base of 6.5 million units in the US. Sony also claims that according to TRSTS reports from the NPD Group, Playstation and Playstation 2 software sales have accounted for more than two-thirds of the video game software market during the month of November. Sales from the Playstation family of products, including hardware, software, and peripherals, have generated more than $700 million in revenue during the same time period.
Konami's Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty was the best-selling console game in November, followed by Grand Theft Auto III, Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3, Harry Potter: The Sorcerer's Stone, Madden NFL 2002, and WWF Smackdown! Just Bring It. In all, the Playstation family of products accounted for five of the top 10 best-selling console games in November and more than 60 percent of that in total revenue.
source
As you can see, Metal Gear Solid 2 was outselling Grand Theft Auto III on its debut, though GTA III (an undisputed system seller) had launched less than a month earlier. As the leading title in December 2001, there is no doubt MGS2 helped establish the PS2 as the dominant system in that month and in the broader generation.
MGS2 sold in a slow trickle? The facts say otherwise.
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