http://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/gaming/823433/Xbox-One-X-price-update-pre-order-delay-PS4-Pro-price-drop
DFC Intelligence predict that by the end of 2021 the Xbox One X will have sold 17 million units, and by 2022 it will have sold over 20 million units.
They predict that the total lifetime sales for the Xbox One will be 63 million units worldwide.
While that is a healthy number, that would be 20 million units down on the Xbox 360’s total lifetime sales.
The 20 million X1X sales by 2022 seems like a pretty good number. I think MS would be pleased with that level of sales considering the price point and their current stance of no exclusive X1X software that requires the hardware purchase.
But I think they may be lowballing it a bit with the 63 million lifetime X1 sales. With a 499 launch price 100 higher than PS4, bundled with Kinect at first, and the bad press of E3 2013, in about 4 years they've already managed half that. And since last year, they've got the superior base model in the S, which goes on sale all the time for 250 or less, bundled with games, and MS continues to add features and selling points to buying an Xbox such as Xbox game pass.
It seems very possible, even likely, they will do better these next 4 years than the first 4 of X1. You have to take into account continual price drops for both the S and X. S dropping down to 200, and the X dropping to 399 or less over the next 1-2 years, and 4k TVs further increasing in proliferation, and both are affordable gaming consoles with 4k blu ray movie support as opposed to people buying standalone 4k players that just play movies. I feel like they could break 70 million lifetime X1 sales.
Even if these analysts end up being about right, considering MS's missteps this gen, to end up within about 20 million units of 360 sales is still a great number for them. That would be an NES type number, and one Nintendo would love to have themselves for the Switch.
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