Common Sense: Third Parties will follow the Console Sales

This is in response to that abortion of a thread that pretty much states that game companies look at software sales and not hardware sales when choosing consoles for development. I believe the quote was "Third Parties aren't going to develop for the Wii because Third Party titles aren't selling on the Wii."

This has to be the most stupid and pathetic statement I have heard all week, and after reading crap on the Halo 3 Beta, that saying a lot. If there are no Third Parties to start out with, there isn't going to be many Third Party sales. Everyone knows this, developers know this. Third Party support is going to be extremely limited next year to the Wii because it is the only console selling on a PS2-Level Scale. But in case you don't see it let me show you the timeline:

Early 2006: The 360 is the only next-gen console going, it has monopolized next-gen 3rd party support. Due to the PS2's massive success, early development has begun on a wide spectrum, on the expectation the PS3 will compete fiercely when released.

E3 2006: Nintendo Wii is showcased taking developers by suprise with it's popularity. Ubisoft (besides a few token EA games) are the only real third party support. Some developers begin considering the Wii for more than ports.

November 2006: 360 Support continues strong, PS3 launches but quickly fades in sales, has some good third party launches, but many games are still in production. Wii launches with Ubisoft and token EA games, but is the suprise winner during the Christmas Season.

February 2007: Predictable Nintendo First Party game drought begins, but despite this, Wii sales rapidly reach 50% of total 360 sales in a fraction of the time it took the Xbox. PS3 continues to flounder, loses some exclusives. 360 continues to capitilize on projects that were started in late 2005 and early 2006 (when it had a monopoly on next-gen audience.)

April 2007: By the point the Wii has essentially reached 75% of the total sales of the 360. Every major studio from Square Enix to EA has pledged numerous projects to be built from scratch. PS3 is still moving units, but is no longer really competing in the third party realm, projects that have been started will continue, but they may experience more defections. Wii still has a First Party game drought, to be relieved slightly by Paper Mario, Mario Party 8, and Metroid Prime through August. Ports and mini-games continue to dominate from the third party realm, however.

Prediction Late 2007: Wii sales accelerate for holiday season, major first party releases come through, and first real third party games begin to be released. Through the holiday season the Wii finally matches, and begins to surpass the 360 installed base. Most third party support is now being announced to the Wii. 360 support continues due to its base, but is no longer dominant.

Prediction Early-Mid 2008: Wii Third Party support finally hits its stride, console is undisputed hardware seller. Third Party games are being announced and released consistently for the console. 360 supports remains steady, but again, is no longer dominant. PS3 support has declined to GCN levels from last-generation. It will be sustained by early projects that are now being completed, and perhaps from the occasional exlcusive or first party game, but third party announcements are rare and far in-between. 

/timeline

Mark my words, this is how its going to play out. This isn't abstract theory, *it is based on the current trends*. The Wii continues to sell consistently better than the 360 or the PS3 every month in the middle of a game drought. By the time the 2nd year consumers start paying attention during the holiday, First Party Wii behemoths will be flooding the market along the first truly built-from scratch 3rd party titles.  

Great post my friend, problem is, people in this forum DO NOT RESPOND to intelligent threads or posts. The fanbabies avoid reality like the plague and live in their own little nerd fantasy worlds. You should have posted that in the General Game Discussion forum. briguyb13

How is speculation an intelligent topic? 

Developers follow software sales not hardware, Developers could care less if theirs less people that own the system as long as the people that own that system buys a lot of games.justforlotr2004

Developers follow software sales not hardware, Developers could care less if theirs less people that own the system as long as the people that own that system buys a lot of games.justforlotr2004

[QUOTE="justforlotr2004"]Developers follow software sales not hardware, Developers could care less if theirs less people that own the system as long as the people that own that system buys a lot of games.Zhengi

And TC, I agree with your prediction. I really do think this is how things will play out in a similar fashion.

That inital idea is correct but after the first 6 months if the hardware is up and the sales are down then developers will not want to develop on that system if theres another console with larger margin of software sales. 

[QUOTE="Zhengi"][QUOTE="justforlotr2004"]Developers follow software sales not hardware, Developers could care less if theirs less people that own the system as long as the people that own that system buys a lot of games.justforlotr2004

And TC, I agree with your prediction. I really do think this is how things will play out in a similar fashion.

That inital idea is correct but after the first 6 months if the hardware is up and the sales are down then developers will not want to develop on that system if theres another console with larger margin of software sales.

[QUOTE="justforlotr2004"][QUOTE="Zhengi"][QUOTE="justforlotr2004"]Developers follow software sales not hardware, Developers could care less if theirs less people that own the system as long as the people that own that system buys a lot of games.Zhengi

And TC, I agree with your prediction. I really do think this is how things will play out in a similar fashion.

That inital idea is correct but after the first 6 months if the hardware is up and the sales are down then developers will not want to develop on that system if theres another console with larger margin of software sales.

I never said Wii's software sales are down, I said IF software sales down but hardware is up on any system then developers will be mores sceptical to work on that system. 

[

I never said Wii's software sales are down, I said IF software sales down but hardware is up on any system then developers will be mores sceptical to work on that system.

justforlotr2004

Target Market.

Only wii owners buy wii gamers, so theoreticaly, a bigger installed base means bigger potential market. However, even considering the wii owners demography, there are profiles to be considered.

For instance, take a fps game with realistic graphics, physics and online capabilities like halo, if the same game were to be made in the wii, the potential market would actually be much smaller than if it were released in the ps3 or the 360, since  such high-end games are most expected by those platform owners and wii owners expect games they label as 'innovative'.

[QUOTE="justforlotr2004"][

I never said Wii's software sales are down, I said IF software sales down but hardware is up on any system then developers will be mores sceptical to work on that system.

Zhengi

My original argument is that he said Console sales make 3rd party developers buy into the system.  After the dust settles on the hardware sells its up to the consumers how well the console does depending on their attach rate. Im not talking against the Wii Im talking against his ideal about what developers look for.

[QUOTE="briguyb13"]Great post my friend, problem is, people in this forum DO NOT RESPOND to intelligent threads or posts. The fanbabies avoid reality like the plague and live in their own little nerd fantasy worlds. You should have posted that in the General Game Discussion forum. justforlotr2004

How is speculation an intelligent topic? 

Common sense and intelligence sometimes go hand in hand. It is common sense that says if a console has sold more systems than it's competitors then its software will move more on said system. Third party devs can see the growth of the wii and know it will have more software customers than other systems do.

The tc's assessment's will probably become reality and most intelligent people can see as much.

[QUOTE="justforlotr2004"]

[QUOTE="briguyb13"]Great post my friend, problem is, people in this forum DO NOT RESPOND to intelligent threads or posts. The fanbabies avoid reality like the plague and live in their own little nerd fantasy worlds. You should have posted that in the General Game Discussion forum. briguyb13

How is speculation an intelligent topic?

Common sense and intelligence sometimes go hand in hand. It is common sense that says if a console has sold more systems than it's competitors then its software will move more on said system. Third party devs can see the growth of the wii and know it will have more software customers than other systems do.

The tc's assessment's will probably become reality and most intelligent people can see as much.

Yep Im such a fanboy evne though I waited outside for hours for a Wii during launch time. :roll: 

If you have seen any of my previous posts you will know Im no where close to a fanboy, I just argue what I think and I know.  What I know is that the developers go for sales of SOFTWARE not HARDWARE.  Yes the inital idea is that developers will go for most sold consoles but if the sofware sales arent matching the hardware sales then they will drop it. 

Tough to call.

Improved sales will definitely help the Wii 3rd party support, however I think many developers have certain things in mind, that can't be done on the Wii's hardware so they won't have tons of games going there way. 

The TC has very valid points and I agree with them. However, one thing I still don't understand is that why do people hate Nintendo so much if they have one of the best products out there (not considering what's under the hood). gnutuxgnutux

Yeah I agree there is a chance but I still say it comes down to sale rates rather than hardware sales.  Though also another good point is that the Wii is way cheapr to develope for so it adds another plus for developers to look at and they dont have to sale as many to get a return.  Anyway we will see, I think this holiday season will be a big overview of what is to come in the next few years since all systems will have heavy hitters out and most consoles wont really have a shortage. (though the wii is speculated to have a shortage still by then but who knows.)

[QUOTE="briguyb13"][QUOTE="justforlotr2004"]

[QUOTE="briguyb13"]Great post my friend, problem is, people in this forum DO NOT RESPOND to intelligent threads or posts. The fanbabies avoid reality like the plague and live in their own little nerd fantasy worlds. You should have posted that in the General Game Discussion forum. justforlotr2004

How is speculation an intelligent topic?

Common sense and intelligence sometimes go hand in hand. It is common sense that says if a console has sold more systems than it's competitors then its software will move more on said system. Third party devs can see the growth of the wii and know it will have more software customers than other systems do.

The tc's assessment's will probably become reality and most intelligent people can see as much.

Yep Im such a fanboy evne though I waited outside for hours for a Wii during launch time. :roll: 

If you have seen any of my previous posts you will know Im no where close to a fanboy, I just argue what I think and I know.  What I know is that the developers go for sales of SOFTWARE not HARDWARE.  Yes the inital idea is that developers will go for most sold consoles but if the sofware sales arent matching the hardware sales then they will drop it. 

stupid fanboys will say all the games wii will have will be crap compared to PS3 and Xbox360 games, kiddie and mini-games.

But anyway i do agree with the TC's post. Stupid fanboys say that the devs will not take the wii seriously and will just make wii crap games with tacked on wii controls. Thats not the case. The wii and its games iare still selling very well even games out right now are not so good so if the devs will develop wii games that are greater than the games out right now and more epic it will sell very well. Why would the devs downgrade the games they develop for wii when they can make it epic or greater and gain more profit? surely great games and epic games sell more than downgraded games.

[QUOTE="justforlotr2004"][QUOTE="briguyb13"][QUOTE="justforlotr2004"]

[QUOTE="briguyb13"]Great post my friend, problem is, people in this forum DO NOT RESPOND to intelligent threads or posts. The fanbabies avoid reality like the plague and live in their own little nerd fantasy worlds. You should have posted that in the General Game Discussion forum. briguyb13

How is speculation an intelligent topic?

Common sense and intelligence sometimes go hand in hand. It is common sense that says if a console has sold more systems than it's competitors then its software will move more on said system. Third party devs can see the growth of the wii and know it will have more software customers than other systems do.

The tc's assessment's will probably become reality and most intelligent people can see as much.

Yep Im such a fanboy evne though I waited outside for hours for a Wii during launch time. :roll:

If you have seen any of my previous posts you will know Im no where close to a fanboy, I just argue what I think and I know. What I know is that the developers go for sales of SOFTWARE not HARDWARE. Yes the inital idea is that developers will go for most sold consoles but if the sofware sales arent matching the hardware sales then they will drop it.

Yeah I sometimes can come off as a fanboy just because I like to argue the counter side to the statments just because I dont want to agree 100% with something that isnt total fact yet.  Though I do agree with a lot of points hes saying and it in view of whats going on now it seems very plausble to happen.  

[QUOTE="gnutux"]The TC has very valid points and I agree with them. However, one thing I still don't understand is that why do people hate Nintendo so much if they have one of the best products out there (not considering what's under the hood). gnutuxjustforlotr2004

Yeah I agree there is a chance but I still say it comes down to sale rates rather than hardware sales. Though also another good point is that the Wii is way cheapr to develope for so it adds another plus for developers to look at and they dont have to sale as many to get a return. Anyway we will see, I think this holiday season will be a big overview of what is to come in the next few years since all systems will have heavy hitters out and most consoles wont really have a shortage. (though the wii is speculated to have a shortage still by then but who knows.)

That's also very likely. Since developing games for Wii cost so little, they could try making games for any possible gamers profile as the risks would be much lower. 

Regardless of whether devs follow software or hardware sales games will be going to the wii because it has both. with insane sales rates and an attatch rate of 4.9 to 1 worldwide (its even higher in the us and Europe) its great both ways.

not only that the profit margins are considerably higher on the wii than the 360/PS3 so thats another incentive for devs to go that way.

Target Market.

Only wii owners buy wii gamers, so theoreticaly, a bigger installed base means bigger potential market. However, even considering the wii owners demography, there are profiles to be considered.

For instance, take a fps game with realistic graphics, physics and online capabilities like halo, if the same game were to be made in the wii, the potential market would actually be much smaller than if it were released in the ps3 or the 360, since  such high-end games are most expected by those platform owners and wii owners expect games they label as 'innovative'.

 

 

lordxymor

I think something that needs to be said is that even if Developers look at Software sells, you have to realize that there are no real third party games to judge third party sales on for the Wii. I think they may do this once the first slew of Third Party games come out for the Wii (exclusive, built from scratch games, not ports), but it will only to judge the different demographics of the Wii's installed base. For the moment, all decisions will be based on momentum and hype, which the Wii clearly has.   

Actually devs go where their games sell best and so far there is no doubt that would be the 360. I believe it already has something like 17 or 18 1+ million dollar sellers on the system and by years end that number could be in the high 20s. Get back to me when the Wii or PS3 have numbers like that.eastside49er

[/end thread]

(Xbox 360 has a ton of Platinum sellers, there is no way developers will abandon it like that.

I don't think anyone said the 360 will be abandoned. I think the general agreement is that by the end of this year the Wii is going to be the primary console for third party development (at least declared), and by the middle of the 2008 it will probably be the leader in 3rd party games being released.

Its really hard to imagine the 360 keeping its 1st place spot in the installed based. While games will sell well on the 360, I think this Christmas will show that first party games, and real exclusive 3rd party games will sell better on the Wii.

Publishers follow console sales.  Developers follow publishers (because they have to).

Good developers make great games that they can tell the publisher to do what they want them to do (Kojima and Blizzard). 

Developers and publishers will look at how the game they want to make will sell on any given platform.

Let's just pretend that as a matter of fact (in other words, I don't want to debate whether its true) that the Wii has its own market and pulls in non-gamers. And let's say that these non-gamers want games like Wii Sports/Health, Brain Training, Nintendogs, ect ect.

Do you really think they're going to invest money in developing an intense and realistic FPS? That's not what the market for that console wants- they'll put it on PC/PS3/360. It just makes more sense. So while you might see strong 3rd party support, it's going to be strong in what they Wii buyers want- if people are buying the games like I mentioned above, you will see more of that and not really the traditional game.

Furthermore, it's NOT true that third parties follow console sales, they follow game sales. Let's Sega decided to release a new console and only one million people bought it. But, all those people would purchase any FPS that was released for it.. Third parties would be tripping over themselves to shovel any FPS onto a disc and ship it to retailers, even though one million in sales is almost nothing for hardware. Now, I know that's extreme, but the point still stands- developers develop for where their games will sell. Yes, it's true that the higher the install rate, the more potential customers there are to sell to. But if publishers deem that the Wii is for casuals/Nintendo gamers (who won't care about their games), then they are going to make casual games only for the Wii. 

Here is the deal! 

If developers follow console sales then they will follow and develop for the Wii because right now the Wii is, and this is a fact, slaughtering the other two consoles in sales when considering the length of time released.  X360 fan boys, please do not start with the "but, but we sold 10-11 million" or whatever it is.   I'm refering comparing the first 6 or seven months of release.  Its probably not to long before the Wii surpasses the 360 in total sales anyway.

If developers want to follow software sales then we (Wii, heheh what a great f'ing play on words) will still win that battle.  Twenty-five perent of 7 million,  (1,750,000 for the "kiddies" who sleep in school) is still greater  then 50 percent of 3 million (ouch 1,500,000. Ouch! PS3). 

Thats the deal wither way you look at it and those are with "loose" current sales numbers, but close enough for an example.   

Then if you consider development cost, as a cooperation, common sense does tell you develop for the Wii.   I do see the  360 with a punchers chance to stick around and compete with the Wii when it comes to developers.  The PS3 really has to pull of some Rocky movie type comeback in the 15th round to make a dent.  Right now it has little to nothing going for it from an economical angle when it comes down to developing a game.  That can be seen with 360 getting what were supposed to be PS3 exclusives.  Unfortunately for the PS3 it started falling down that slippery slope which is really tough to start climbing your way back up.  

There is a snowball effect when it comes to games and consoles.  You can't get the games to be a system seller when people stop developing for it because the system doesn't sell and vice versa.  

Yeah, I could be wrong.  No one knows the future (unless I ask Cleo), but when push comes to shove developers could give a rats ass about which system is more powerful, sleeker, can make toast, etc.  They are in the business to make money plain and simple and the more people who walk through the door of your shop the more stuff you will sell.  That's business 101.  The Wii is one busy store, the 360 is holding its own, and the PS3 is as empty as a Taco Bell in Mexico. 

Developers and publishers will look at how the game they want to make will sell on any given platform.

Let's just pretend that as a matter of fact (in other words, I don't want to debate whether its true) that the Wii has its own market and pulls in non-gamers. And let's say that these non-gamers want games like Wii Sports/Health, Brain Training, Nintendogs, ect ect.

Do you really think they're going to invest money in developing an intense and realistic FPS? That's not what the market for that console wants- they'll put it on PC/PS3/360. It just makes more sense. So while you might see strong 3rd party support, it's going to be strong in what they Wii buyers want- if people are buying the games like I mentioned above, you will see more of that and not really the traditional game.

Furthermore, it's NOT true that third parties follow console sales, they follow game sales. Let's Sega decided to release a new console and only one million people bought it. But, all those people would purchase any FPS that was released for it.. Third parties would be tripping over themselves to shovel any FPS onto a disc and ship it to retailers, even though one million in sales is almost nothing for hardware. Now, I know that's extreme, but the point still stands- developers develop for where their games will sell. Yes, it's true that the higher the install rate, the more potential customers there are to sell to. But if publishers deem that the Wii is for casuals/Nintendo gamers (who won't care about their games), then they are going to make casual games only for the Wii.

Vampyronight

Good Third Party games don't have to be an intense and realistic FPS. That just what you want. The reason FPS are so popular on consoles now is because of Halo's success.

And third parties follow BOTH console sales and game sales. Just look at the Wii, 6 of the 10 top selling games for Wii are third parties. Tiger Woods 07 is the 2nd best seller, selling almost as good as Wii Play is. 

SEGA when moving from the console market to game market, they strategically made the games so it will sell. For example. all the Sonic games went to the Gamecube, because that's where most of the SEGA fans went to after the Dreamcast failed. However, the Gamecube fell to 3rd place two years later. So SEGA decided to bring their Sonic games to other consoles besides the Gamecube. So console sells do matter more than game sells.

Without console sales, there would not be any software sales, you know. 

Of course, the developers will shift their gameplay design in favor of the most succesfull console. The reason so many FPS are out there last gen is because the dominant consoles were the PS2 and Xbox, which sold because of their more violent games. Now the dominant consoles are the Xbox 360 and Wii.  So games in favor of both those audiences will come out.

Here is the deal!

If developers follow console sales then they will follow and develop for the Wii because right now the Wii is, and this is a fact, slaughtering the other two consoles in sales when considering the length of time released. X360 fan boys, please do not start with the "but, but we sold 10-11 million" or whatever it is. I'm refering comparing the first 6 or seven months of release. Its probably not to long before the Wii surpasses the 360 in total sales anyway.

If developers want to follow software sales then we (Wii, heheh what a great f'ing play on words) will still win that battle. Twenty-five perent of 7 million, (1,750,000 for the "kiddies" who sleep in school) is still greater then 50 percent of 3 million (ouch 1,500,000. Ouch! PS3).

Thats the deal wither way you look at it and those are with "loose" current sales numbers, but close enough for an example.

Then if you consider development cost, as a cooperation, common sense does tell you develop for the Wii. I do see the 360 with a punchers chance to stick around and compete with the Wii when it comes to developers. The PS3 really has to pull of some Rocky movie type comeback in the 15th round to make a dent. Right now it has little to nothing going for it from an economical angle when it comes down to developing a game. That can be seen with 360 getting what were supposed to be PS3 exclusives. Unfortunately for the PS3 it started falling down that slippery slope which is really tough to start climbing your way back up.

There is a snowball effect when it comes to games and consoles. You can't get the games to be a system seller when people stop developing for it because the system doesn't sell and vice versa.

Yeah, I could be wrong. No one knows the future (unless I ask Cleo), but when push comes to shove developers could give a rats ass about which system is more powerful, sleeker, can make toast, etc. They are in the business to make money plain and simple and the more people who walk through the door of your shop the more stuff you will sell. That's business 101. The Wii is one busy store, the 360 is holding its own, and the PS3 is as empty as a Taco Bell in Mexico.

 

 

punkcoop

Actually what you said is true. That very same effect is what propelled the last two Playstations to #1.  And Taco Bells in Mexico are also slow in business.

I agree on alot of the TC's points.  But there is one flaw in that perdiction.  From a publishers stand point the Wii is and probably remain the way to go, but for the developer there is a different story.  While I know alot of devs want to create unique games on Wii they also want to create great experiences and more graphically and techincally superior consoles.  In Japan the way to go it the PS3 which will continue to beat the 360 in that region.  So the graphically heavy hardcore games will release on that system in Japan. So I think the PS3 will keep its second place spot there.  But those same Eastern developers will probably release those games for both PS3 and 360 in the Western territories.  There the quality of those games will effect the install base of the console by a significant amount.  As for Western developers I expect to see games released for PS3 and 360 in all the regions.  I think 360 will get more third party exclusives but what PS3 as is a first/second party line up only bested by Nintendo.  So if Sony could push out more games from themselves they could start to take more third parties.  But due to 360's already good install base it already has an advantage.  If 360 and its small first party/third party exclusive line could hold its way through 2008 the PS3 would be finished.  But if PS3's strong first party/third party line up could fight to the mindshare of the Western markets then Sony could take the second or even first place spot.  As for Nintendo they have 2007 in their hands but 08 has a big question mark on it. Thats not factoring in any price drops of consoles.  So like most say it is still up in the air.VGlegends

True

Did they actually open Taco Bells in Mexico?

Regardless, the fact is that even if a lower percentage of the Wii user base is into higher-end FPS type games, that really doesn't mean much. Two reasons:

1) As already stated, the a lower percentage doesn't mean less of an installed base. Wii should be well in the lead in total sales by Christmas, and a smaller fraction of a bigger number often will match or beat a larger fraction of a smaller number (ie the 25% of Wii users example compared to 40% for the PS3/360, bs numbers, but just an example.)

2) There is no law saying developers will make these games. They cater to the largest userbase, and very soon that will be Wii. You don't develop on a slow-selling platform over a faster-selling platform because you want to make a FPS, you just don't develop the FPS in the first place. Honestly though, I think this line of thinking is flawed. The Wii is perfect for both FPSes and RTSes. It is certainly better equiped to handle those two hardcore genres then either the PS3 or 360 (from a control standpoint of course.) All because children and parents, ie casuals, are swiping up the console, doesn't mean its the only market, or even the largest. There are a huge number of hardcore gamers that own a Wii which will make any well-made 3rd party FPS/RTS on the console a good seller.