Consoles to Die Out in 5 to 10 Years?

From Gizmodo

Former Xbox Europe exec Sandy Duncan recently declared that consoles were a dying breed, due to disappear in a mere 5 to 10 years. At first, it's a laughable remark. I mean, consoles are insanely popular moneymakers, why would they disappear? Sure, physical media will be gone by the next generation, but don't you need a standardized set of hardware and controllers for developers to create games for?

Well, today that's true, but what Sandy was talking about was cluster computing, the idea that down the line, all the brainpower for game consoles will be located remotely. Consumers will have low-power local units that'll just hook up to a display, which a huge, beefy server farm will run the games themselves and pipe them to you over a high-speed internet connection.

It's certainly an interesting idea, as it would stop requiring people to upgrade their PCs with the hottest graphics card and would allow developers to create games as demanding as they're able to power. However, it seems to me that we might still be a bit far away from the bandwidth that would be required for such a setup.

Is super-high speed internet really going to be widespread enough in 5 years for us to ditch local consoles altogether? While I think this idea will take hold and become the norm eventually, I'd be shocked if we didn't have one more generation of high-powered consoles that eschewed physical media. It'll be a stepping stone generation, but with current console lifespans looking to be pretty long and the bandwidth requirements for cluster computing gaming still pretty steep, that whole idea seems to be 10 years away at the very least.

What do you guys think? Are consoles doomed, or do we have a good long time to wait before they become obsolete?

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My personal opinion: Heck no, though I can see a system like this comming about in that time period.

Former Xbox Europe exec

Somebody is bitter.

Wow, no way. It's going to take a hell of a lot longer than 5 years for remote gaming to become viable.

Wow, no way. It's going to take a hell of a lot longer than 5 years for remote gaming to become viable.

mjarantilla

I could see in countries like Korea or Japan - it taking off, even possibly the USA, but in a country like Australia - where we have pisspoor connections - hell no.

Former Xbox Europe exec

Somebody is bitter.

Shazenab

he left to start his own gaming company.

[QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

Wow, no way. It's going to take a hell of a lot longer than 5 years for remote gaming to become viable.

skrat_01

I could see in countries like Korea or Japan - it taking off, even possibly the USA, but in a country like Australia - where we have pisspoor connections - hell no.

No, not even there, I think. What this exec is talking about would require network latencies an order of magnitude lower than what any high speed internet provider currently has. I mean, processing the graphics remotely and then transmitting it as a video signal over the Internet? Think about how much bandwidth a 1080p signal would require, even a compressed one. Both bandwidth and latency come into play at that point.

No, it won't happen. Consoles are an easy, accessible and affordable way for anyone to jump into gaming. They don't need to worry about the hardware or a high, jumping-in price point. They just go to a store and buy a console and plug it in.

I think most people still view the PC, not as a gaming machine, but as a machine that also happens to play games.

It's an interesting idea, but the logistics are mind-boggling to say the least. I do agree that consoles are on the way out, but I think it's far more likely we'll see them replaced with good ol' fashioned PCs. PBSnipes

[QUOTE="skrat_01"][QUOTE="mjarantilla"]

Wow, no way. It's going to take a hell of a lot longer than 5 years for remote gaming to become viable.

mjarantilla

I could see in countries like Korea or Japan - it taking off, even possibly the USA, but in a country like Australia - where we have pisspoor connections - hell no.

No, not even there, I think. What this exec is talking about would require network latencies an order of magnitude lower than what any high speed internet provider currently has. I mean, processing the graphics remotely and then transmitting it as a video signal over the Internet? Think about how much bandwidth a 1080p signal would require, even a compressed one. Both bandwidth and latency come into play at that point.

The tech will be there, its just up to the government to improve the lines.
Which is why it blows ass here.

[QUOTE="PBSnipes"]It's an interesting idea, but the logistics are mind-boggling to say the least. I do agree that consoles are on the way out, but I think it's far more likely we'll see them replaced with good ol' fashioned PCs. deadmeat59

:|

1. Hardware varies, games vary for hardware. Example: StarCraft. Sims. Crysis.

2. Everyone uses a computer. Its natrual for people. Its not hard. By that logic the Sims would have never sold 20 million copies.

Doubtful, but ... I'm sure computers in five to ten years will be smaller, better(obviously), and more affortable for gamers; hence, they'll turn into the family-room entertainment.

[QUOTE="PBSnipes"]It's an interesting idea, but the logistics are mind-boggling to say the least. I do agree that consoles are on the way out, but I think it's far more likely we'll see them replaced with good ol' fashioned PCs. deadmeat59

thats not what he is saying....in fact if what he says turns out to be true, than desktop PC's in general will not be used any more.

[QUOTE="PBSnipes"]It's an interesting idea, but the logistics are mind-boggling to say the least. I do agree that consoles are on the way out, but I think it's far more likely we'll see them replaced with good ol' fashioned PCs. deadmeat59

Dude, it IS a main form of gaming, I cant beleive people still believe that consoles have some kinda of dominance ... when its easily even'd out.

not a chance. not with the demands of current and future games anyway. between input lag and general network lag...it just wouldnt work with even the best current tech out there. with future games demanding even more....i just cant see it being a real viable alternative for high end games even in 10 years time. ideally u want to keep the network reqs of a game down to reduce ping times and lag.

however....for less technically sophisticated and demanding games like, say, puzzle quest a service like that could work very nicely. sky has a simple games service that is streamed to the sky box on demand and are played on the telly using the remote. if telly manufacturers agreed on certain standards for basic gaming hardware in a telly (like a sky box built in or something) then the idea of streaming games down to the telly or having a game channel that ppl can access could be a very vialble alternative for some games.

i think the idea in the TCs post is a good one and is a very viable alternative to the usual means of games distribution. will it replace consoles though? i very highly doubt it.

however....for less technically sophisticated and demanding games like, say, puzzle quest a service like that could work very nicely. sky has a simple games service that is streamed to the sky box on demand and are played on the telly using the remote. if telly manufacturers agreed on certain standards for basic gaming hardware in a telly (like a sky box built in or something) then the idea of streaming games down to the telly or having a game channel that ppl can access could be a very vialble alternative for some games.

osan0

More simplistic games could easily make their way into the living room streamed.

Even considering complex 3D games can be streamed out of your web browser - ala Instantaction.com - including the fast paced fps Tribes like game (from ex dynamix devs) - personally ive only tried Think Tanks - which ran great, even things like Wii games could possibly be streamed.

Data heavy games like Crysis, heck no.

dont bet on it, the console gaming industry sets records every year for earnings. why would they stop?

dont bet on it, the console gaming industry sets records every year for earnings. why would they stop?

Lo_Rising

Different buisness models can prove to be more sucessful. Look at Nintendo with the DS and Wii. Went for a different market, and are making huge profit.

I swear current and former MS employees live 20 years in the future. First it's HD-DVD is the best home entertainment for the future......then they lose the war and suddenly it's hidef movies being downloaded to most homes is viable in a couple years (laughable), now it seems they are losing the console war FAST and suddenly it's "consoles will be dead in 5-10 years".

I'm serious, why do people even listen to these people. Everything that MS and it's employees spews is solely aimed at destorying the compeition (be it exagerations or flat out lies). They've brainwashed their employees so much that even when they no longer technically work for them they still think it's reality. I wouldn't be surprised if this ex employee thinks flying cars will replace current cars in 5-10 years as well.

I hope not.

Besides arent video games more profitable then the music and movie industry combined? Wouldnt that be kinda odd if the companies just sorta dropped out?