David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

David Jaffe Predicts Next Console Generation Will Be the Last

TheGod of WarandTwisted Metalcreator thinks that the $60 game model is broken, and won't last much longer.

It's not justAngry Birdsdeveloper, Rovio Mobile, thatforesees dark timesahead for console gaming, Eat Sleep Play boss David Jaffe thinks that outlook is pretty bleak as well. Jaffe believes that we're coming to the end of console gaming, and that while there will be a PlayStation 4, therewon'tbe a PlayStation 5.

Jaffe felt that pre-owned sales and piracy were two of the biggest threats to the industry, because they were both taking revenue away from the publishers and developers. He suggested a PS3 game that sold 300,000 copies might sell 850,000 were it not for pre-owned sales. He said that that was not a model that was sustainable forever, and that it was would only be a few more years before the industry started to shy away from trying to make blockbuster games, and instead turned smaller, cheaper alternatives that they didn't require such huge levels of investment.

Jaffe thought that the retail business model, where a game costs $60 or so, was broken for the majority of games, especially when it came to value for money. He said that the game that contained hundreds of hours of gameplay was just as much of a problem as the one that contained just a handful of hours. He felt that there would always be a market for the really big games, likeGears of WarandUncharted, but he was less clear on what people would be playing them on. He said that it might be a streaming service like OnLive or Gaikai that filled that role, or a digital platform like Steam, but he was convinced that after the next console generation, the industry would move on to something else.

The problem here is that Jaffe is saying a lot of different things, which don't go together quite as well he seems to think. He's very likely correct that $60 games won't be around forever, but it doesn't automatically follow that a new business model will kill off consoles. It's not dissimilar to the situation with PC gaming, which has apparently been on its deathbed for years, and yet somehow keeps surviving, adapting and evolving.

We can change !

As long as I get to play big budget titles (and small) I am happy. I want Uncharted, Zelda, Diablo, Battlefield and all that.

Meh. I think he's forgetting the evolution process that gaming will go through.

And as long as there is split screen, console gaming will never die.

Console gaming is dying! (I think I've read something like this before ;) ).

Anyways, if this is true, which i don't think it will be because like he says there will always be a market for those big AAA titles, then people will just move to the PC where there will always be high quality hardcore games.

And what will replace console gaming? Onlive? Ha, yea ok.

Almost as silly as saying PC Gaming is dying.

For all the forecasting, predicting, and analysis, it won't matter. The game industry will continue on, and so will consoles. People forget history so easily. Consoles were "dead" after the Atari. Literally. There were a LOT of consoles in the Atari era, but they all crashed. PC gaming took over completely. When the NES was launched, it was laughed at. It was a stupid 8-bit Japanese toy trying to tango with the 16-bit PC big boys. It was guaranteed to fail. No one was going to buy it. And then? The new console era was born. The same thing has happened with the Wii, because the Wii EXPANDED the market. As long as consoles continue to expand their market, they won't fail. If a console is too expensive, it'll get slapped into its place (like the PS brand went from #1 to #3 overnight).Mrmccormo

Yea the game industry will continue.....Zynga here we come! :P

Farmville HD confirmed PS4 launch title.

This doom and gloom will get us nowhere. If various reports are to be believed, then PC gaming is dying, console gaming is dying, traditional handheld gaming is dying, and mobile gaming is only a short lived fad. In other words, gaming, as a whole, is dying. These are panic scenarios, knee jerk reactions, and we really shouldn't be entertaining any of those. The gaming industry, in its various forms, has continued to evolve and survive over two decades. I don't see why any form of gaming should die or kill each other off- all four of them can co-exist, and will probably continue to thrive in an (admittedly uneasy) symbiosis for the foreseeable future.charizard1605

Well put, good sir

Dear god... its not going to end, I really do not see how these developers do not realize that. Tons of people have ZERO interest in PC gaming...

Hahah I love how the shoe is on the other foot with a couple devs saying console gaming is dying!! Bu bu bu now they are all wrong right? :lol:

This guy has been in the business a long time. He was developing games on the PS1 before most of you were probably born so when this guy talks, it would be best to listen. Read the entire interview, this man knows EXACTLY what he is talking about.

This doom and gloom will get us nowhere. If various reports are to be believed, then PC gaming is dying, console gaming is dying, traditional handheld gaming is dying, and mobile gaming is only a short lived fad. In other words, gaming, as a whole, is dying. These are panic scenarios, knee jerk reactions, and we really shouldn't be entertaining any of those. The gaming industry, in its various forms, has continued to evolve and survive over two decades. I don't see why any form of gaming should die or kill each other off- all four of them can co-exist, and will probably continue to thrive in an (admittedly uneasy) symbiosis for the foreseeable future.charizard1605

oh how the tables have turned

now everyone is saying Console gaming is dying

:roll: And when portable games start costing 60 dollars?

If they are so concerned about lost revenue due to pre owned sales, than why not just lower the price of new games? If games were $40-50, people would probably buy more. younger kids who have either no job or a minimum wage job can't shell out $60 1-2 times a month and by the time they do have the moeny, the used games are much cheaper. When retailers like Gamestop have 8 month old games for full retail price, don't expect every consumer to willing fork over $60 for it.

I personally think that if anything is to replace console it would be a service similar to onlive. I know onlive isnt the best right now but if the technology gets better andwe can get a quality and lag free experience, console will be overtaken. That won't happen anytime soon but another 2 generations of console and that is very very possible, especially if the price is decent.

If they are so concerned about lost revenue due to pre owned sales, than why not just lower the price of new games? If games were $40-50, people would probably buy more. younger kids who have either no job or a minimum wage job can't shell out $60 1-2 times a month and by the time they do have the moeny, the used games are much cheaper. When retailers like Gamestop have 8 month old games for full retail price, don't expect every consumer to willing fork over $60 for it.

BPoole96

Since when have pre-owned games been such a problem? They've been around as long as the first boring video game and no consoles died because of it.

*Sigh* here we go again...

It always baffels me when Devs or other people in the industry has this odd idea that The gaming platforms are as static as such.

PC gaming does not die, It evolves, Console gaming does not die, it evolves. It is pretty much common sense, every time things need to happen the platforms evolve, heck They Pretty much evolve with each generation.

Consoles have a fair bit of options (and likelyhood) such as, DD, binding a game to an account, and Streaming, the two first we allready see in PC gaming, and it is no surprise that it would happen sooner or later on consoles, the third one is pretty much Onlive which I would still argue is a console, so Consoles "as we know it" would go away, but consoles as a whole sure won't as long as there is a market, there are money to be had, and people to supply.

I like David but I don't know what the hell he is talking about. I'm sick of this "consoles are dying" crap, it's just as old as "pc gaming is dying" and "handhelds are dying" nonsense. They are all doing great. And why do some companies and developers even care about used games? Hasn't there always been people buying and selling used games since the Atari times? I mean this was never a problem in the entire gaming history.So why worry now?

The entire interview is a good read and quite amusing.

Game designer American McGee thinks similarly. Honestly, I think within a decade we will be seeing the majority of console games take advantage of smaller price tags and be available primarily through console DD services. Three clicks and the game is yours. Like always, PC is has reached this stage first and it has been the saving grace for the platform. Consoles won't die but the shift towards DD will radically shift the console gaming market, most likely for the better (or worse, depends on how much meddling MS and Sony will be doing with their services).

[QUOTE="BPoole96"]

If they are so concerned about lost revenue due to pre owned sales, than why not just lower the price of new games? If games were $40-50, people would probably buy more. younger kids who have either no job or a minimum wage job can't shell out $60 1-2 times a month and by the time they do have the moeny, the used games are much cheaper. When retailers like Gamestop have 8 month old games for full retail price, don't expect every consumer to willing fork over $60 for it.

Mrmccormo

I do remember some SNES/N64 games being very expensive. I remember buying LoZ: Majora's Mask for like $75. From my understanding, this was mainly due to cartridges costing so much. Even for game prices right now, why is it that PS3/360 games cost $60 new while PC/Wii games cost $50?

Publishers really need to evaluate how much they should charge for a game. A new IP with hardly any marketing is not going to sell exceptionally well compared to a game with an established name. In order for more people to give the game a shot, they should make it cost less new, which could also increase revenue.

If 10 people buy the game and 5 buy it new while 5 buy it used, only $300 was accumulated (I'm aware that not all the money goes to the publisher, but this is just an example)

If those same 10 people all bought the game new for $40, then $400 could be accumulated

There have been plenty of games this gen that I have wanted to get but realize that they are probably 8-10 hour experiences and then anything else is just repeated gameplay. In some cases I will spend the $60 and get it new (Like God of War 3), but other times I can easily dismiss it for the time being and just wait until its $30 used on Amazon a month later.

So the world will end before the ps5

:cry:

Why doesn't everyone raise the price then if selling 300,000 is too little:-? 10 more because 360 and PS3 games look ten dollars much better than Wii games:roll. Wii games get rented too. Uh oh. $120 and $100 Wii games. !!

This guy has been in the business a long time. He was developing games on the PS1 before most of you were probably born so when this guy talks, it would be best to listen. Read the entire interview, this man knows EXACTLY what he is talking about.

djohnstonXCII

I was born the same year as Jaffe, been gaming as long as he has, he makes some points, offers no answers and is just wrong on many things.

No form of gaming is dying for ****'s sake.

[QUOTE="charizard1605"]This doom and gloom will get us nowhere. If various reports are to be believed, then PC gaming is dying, console gaming is dying, traditional handheld gaming is dying, and mobile gaming is only a short lived fad. In other words, gaming, as a whole, is dying. These are panic scenarios, knee jerk reactions, and we really shouldn't be entertaining any of those. The gaming industry, in its various forms, has continued to evolve and survive over two decades. I don't see why any form of gaming should die or kill each other off- all four of them can co-exist, and will probably continue to thrive in an (admittedly uneasy) symbiosis for the foreseeable future.Mrmccormo

If they are so concerned about lost revenue due to pre owned sales, than why not just lower the price of new games? If games were $40-50, people would probably buy more. younger kids who have either no job or a minimum wage job can't shell out $60 1-2 times a month and by the time they do have the moeny, the used games are much cheaper. When retailers like Gamestop have 8 month old games for full retail price, don't expect every consumer to willing fork over $60 for it.

BPoole96

Not surprised this is being said by the man that created God of War, a series spanning five installments, all of which have practically the same mechanics. Someone creative & innovative, such as the gang over at Nintendo, can come up with things to keep consoles fresh & in demand. I don't think this is needed though, I can't see why people would move away from consoles. I don't see his argument for why consoles would disappear anyway.

I can understand developers moving away from retail though. Investing so much to develop a game only to be screwed over by the retail stores is a good reason to move away from physical copies. It's disappointing, but if it helps developers get what they deserve, then so be it (coming from an Australian, where we have relatively small download caps which include uploads).

[QUOTE="BPoole96"]

If they are so concerned about lost revenue due to pre owned sales, than why not just lower the price of new games? If games were $40-50, people would probably buy more. younger kids who have either no job or a minimum wage job can't shell out $60 1-2 times a month and by the time they do have the moeny, the used games are much cheaper. When retailers like Gamestop have 8 month old games for full retail price, don't expect every consumer to willing fork over $60 for it.

Mrmccormo

This guy has been in the business a long time. He was developing games on the PS1 before most of you were probably born so when this guy talks, it would be best to listen. Read the entire interview, this man knows EXACTLY what he is talking about.

djohnstonXCII

Sell them at $40.

Problem solved.

Alternate headline: David Jaffe not getting enough attention between GOW III and Twisted Metal, says something mildly stupid as blog bait