DF: How much will Next-Gen consoles cost? Is a true generational leap actually possible any time soon?

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2017-if-xbox-one-x-is-500-usd-how-much-will-true-next-gen-consoles-cost

Xbox One X is $500 - so how much will next-gen consoles cost?

And is a true generational leap actually possible any time soon?

By Richard Leadbetter Published 18/06/2017

Xbox One X's pricing at £449/$499 may have disappointed many users, but it's indicative of a substantial challenge facing console platform holders: the pace of technological advancement is slowing, and existing hardware components are holding their price for longer. It's a trend that shows no sign of changing and projecting forward, we do wonder - just how much will the actual next generation of consoles cost, when will they arrive and how powerful will they be?

There are two comparisons we'd like to highlight in this piece: we're going to take Microsoft's new console and stack it up against both iterations of PlayStation 4 - the base model and the Pro update. On the one hand, you'll find that the extra $100 compared to the Pro isn't at all unreasonable, but on the other, comparisons with the base unit definitely highlight how difficult it's going to be to provide a cost-effective next-gen console design within the remainder of this decade.

First up, let's discuss the Xbox One X price specifically, and the reason the Xbox team opted for £449/$499. We can't really accuse Microsoft of profiteering here - in an interview with Business Insider, Xbox boss Phil Spencer confirmed that the firm will not make any money from Xbox One X hardware sales. However, the platform holder claws back revenue from elsewhere in the Xbox ecosystem in order to break even and push into profit.

"I don't want to get into all the numbers," Spencer said. "But in aggregate you should think about the hardware part of the console business is not the money-making part of the business. The money-making part is in selling games."

It's not just about selling games though - we can expect committed Xbox users buying the top-tier X model to be paid-up Xbox Live subscribers too.

Leaving out the concept of selling hardware at a loss, it's easy to justify the extra $100/£100 Microsoft is asking by comparing specs with PlayStation 4 Pro, and stacking up the extras on top of the basic bill of materials:

* We estimate the Scorpio Engine to be 15 to 20 per cent larger than the PS4 Pro's processor. This is most expensive single component in a console and prices here tend to scale in line with silicon area.

* Xbox One X's extra four gigs of GDDR5 won't be cheap. Two years ago, AMD told us that it cost them $30 to move from four gigs of memory to eight gigs with its R9 390 and 390X. Prices may have fallen since then, but that's still a significant addition to a console price.

* The vapour chamber cooling used in Xbox One X is not insignificant. A similar technology is used in Nvidia's GTX 1080 and 1080 Ti graphics cards, but it was omitted from GTX 1070 - a $400 GPU.

* Hard drive bandwidth has risen from 40MB/s in a standard Xbox One, to 60MB/s in Xbox One X - a 50 per cent improvement. Microsoft wouldn't comment on how this was done (maybe it's a 7200rpm drive) but regardless, a higher performance unit will cost more.

* Using a UHD Blu-ray drive will add to the cost of the hardware compared to a standard unit. However, the presence of the same drive in Xbox One S suggests that this additional cost is not too onerous bearing in mind some of the excellent deals seen on this console.

* Microsoft's 'Hovis Method' - individually tuning power delivery on each motherboard for each Scorpio Engine - must surely add to the cost of production.

While many users were holding out for a $399 price-point, understanding the components and the construction of Xbox One X shows that you're getting a good deal when PS4 Pro is used as the baseline for costing, and that's exactly why we predicted a $499 price-point back in April when we revealed the Xbox One X hardware spec. PC World's attempt to build an equivalent PC that covers off all areas of the X's spec also confirms that you're getting a hell of a lot of tech for your money, especially bearing in mind the ultra small form-factor.

However, it is the comparison with the base PlayStation 4 that proves more illuminating. Effectively, what we're doing is comparing the most powerful console released in 2013 with its 2017 equivalent. It's a measure of how far we've come in four years - which, coincidentally, is the same amount of time between the release of the original Xbox and its successor, Xbox 360. Whether we're talking about those two machines, or the jump from PS2 to PS3, we are looking at undisputed generational leaps there. The same cannot really be said for the jump from PS4 to Xbox One X - even though it is quite clearly the most powerful console ever made. Of course, there are hardware-level customisations to factor in that skew the increases in performance in favour of the more modern box, but fundamentally, with similar AMD technology as the basis for both machines, the figures are a good starting point for ballpark comparison purposes.

The CPU is custom, but still based on the same core tech and only achieves a 44 per cent improvement in frequency. Memory has only increased by 50 per cent when the leap between the OG Xbox and Xbox 360 was a factor of 8x. Not surprisingly, graphics throughput judged by basic compute performance increases most, but still only by around 226 per cent - not a patch compared to prior Xbox generational improvements. Again, it's not an entirely fair comparison owing to the inclusion of AMD Polaris features that provide tangible performance increases, but it firmly pegs Xbox One X as a machine best suited to running the same games at higher resolutions - which is exactly what it was designed for.

With the arrival of 4K displays, the existence of Xbox One X and PlayStation 4 Pro are perfectly justifiable as a means of extending the current console generation, but the figures are stark. In four years, we've only managed relatively small increases when compared to the leap between older console generations. The pace of technological advancement is obviously slowing, but more than that, we're also looking at a 25 per cent increase in the cost to the consumer, even though the platform holder is still losing money on selling the hardware alone.

So why has this happened? It's primarily down to advancements in microprocessor fabrication technology taking longer and longer to come to market. PS4 Pro and Xbox One both use TSMC's 16nm FinFET node, the first clear evolution since 2011's 28nm (as used on base PS4 and Xbox One). New processes allow for more transistors to be crammed onto a piece of silicon, meaning more powerful hardware - but without access to new technology here, it's difficult to deliver substantially better consoles. AMD's recently leaked roadmap for its PC desktop APUs - similar core technology to the chips found in Sony/Microsoft consoles - suggests that we're looking at 2019 until the next viable process comes along.

As we discussed recently, any console produced without a process shrink wouldn't offer much of a boost compared to Xbox One X and PS4 Pro, and even with access to this crucial technology, costs for surrounding components will make a true generational leap difficult. Where a console generation has typically enjoyed an 8x boost to memory capacity (16x between PS3 and PS4!), we'll be fortunate to get a 2x increase from 8GB to 16GB for the next generation. And ideally, we'd need HBM memory to see scalability in bandwidth to get the most out of the leap in GPU power, plus solid-state storage to fill that memory quickly. Prices on both components there are still very high.

All of which has led to two different approaches to the future of console hardware. Microsoft's strategy is to shift consoles to a mobile phone-like upgrade cadence with full compatibility with existing Xbox content, while Sony still believes in the traditional console generation. The arrival of 4K display technology has given both platform holders the chance to experiment with a shift to a difference upgrade model and sales look promising - one in five PS4s sold is a Pro unit, a healthy split bearing in mind how much value we've seen in base unit bundle packs.

Despite its $100 premium, we hope to see similar success with Xbox One X too - but both platform holders will be watching very carefully. The price a consumer is willing to pay will have fundamental implications on how powerful the next-gen consoles will be, not to mention the time-frame they will arrive in. Gut feeling? This wave of consoles will persist just as long as the last - and while the slower pace of technological advancement favours Microsoft's vision, there is much to commend Sony's commitment to the traditional console generation. It resets the baseline and challenges developers to think bigger in terms of concepts, game simulation fidelity and of course, rendering techniques.

But if we must wait, maybe that's not such a bad thing. Key games released this year along with others revealed during E3 suggest there's plenty of life left in the current generation. It's remarkable to think that the stunning Horizon Zero Dawn is running on GPU hardware broadly equivalent to a vintage Radeon HD 7850. Sony's first-party titles continue to push the state of the art, Forza Motorsport 7 looks stunning, while Anthem and Metro Exodus demonstrate that third parties can push current-gen visuals to a new level. All of these titles look beautiful and will hopefully play well, not just on Xbox One X and PS4 Pro, but on their veteran 2013 equivalents too.

Richard Leadbetter? lol.

I said in another thread, both Sony and Microsoft have made a mistake by focusing on 4K with Pro/XOX because next gen the baseline is now required to be 4K. No claims were made with One or PS4 that 1080p would be standard, so there was some flexibility to push quality of assets over resolution. Now they cannot do that next gen, because it would feel like a downgrade from the "4k" consoles we already have.

I think the idea of no generations that Microsoft keep talking about, is also not going to happen, devs in 4 years time won't make a game that will work on Xbox One as well as Xbox 3 as the ambitions will die for the game as devs desperately try to make things work on legacy systems, just will not happen. Xbox One XOX, PS4 and Pro will be left in the dust.

Next gen will ideally need to wait a good 4 years, but unless some serious breakthrough in hardware happens I think people will be extremely underwhelmed by the graphical advancements next gen, as all games will now require 4k and I expect both Sony and Microsoft to target $399 price points.

Just focus on 1080p with everything.

Next gen consoles will be $399 or they will fail. No console has successfully launched at $499.

Indeed. I think Microsoft is currently in a better position right now with the Xbox One X then Sony is with the PS4 Pro. It doesn't seem likely that Sony will be able to leapfrog the Xbox One X any time soon and still be able to sell the system for less then $499.

Which consoles have launched at 499$?

Scorpio is the most powerful console ever created, im buying one, 499 is a good price for the most powerful console ever created!

@blackout55: Xbox one launched at $499

@blackout55: PS3 launched at $500 and $600. It was like watching a successful track star that ran an incredible race the day before (PS2 era) run face first into a brick wall the next day.

PS3's lack of compelling software the first year didn't help things either.

I personally am at the point where I really don't care about upgrading. I don't need a PS5 and don't mind another "lengthy" console gen. I'll eventually pick up whatever the next PlayStation is for 4K and HDR (to go with my TV) but I doubt it will be anywhere near launch if it doesn't play my PS4 titles.

@Archangel3371: The question is, does Sony even need to? There's no need to put out hardware just for hardware's sake. There should be a niche that has to be filled. While the One X is a better 4K device than the Pro, the Pro is nonetheless Sony's hat toss into the ring, and it does the job at rendering current gen games at higher resolutions - albeit not natively. Overall, I think it's fair to say they packed what they could in at the $399 price tag while still releasing it in November 2016.

That said, the lack of a 4K Bluray player was a dumb design choice that hampers its utility for movie collectors. Maybe they'll include one with the inevitable "PS4 Pro Slim".

Aside from minor redesigns, though, I think their systems have enough power that they can stick with them for another 3 years pretty easily. It would be pretty shocking if the One X outsells the Pro given that Sony is the market leader.

What exactly is a 'generational' leap these days? The Xbox One X is already like 5x the Xbox One. The next gen consoles will probably be 10TFLOPS, which wouldn't be anywhere near that jump.

The Original Xbox One launched at $499....

Link: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/xbox-one-launching-in-november-for-500/1100-6409554/

Also the OG PS3 was $499 for the 20GB and $599 for the 60GB

Link: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/e3-06-ps3-launches-11-17-499-for-20gb-599-for-60gb/1100-6149470/

So $499 is a reasonable price... who would've thought.

@SakusEnvoy: Maybe, maybe not. I think things will be more noticeable after a year or two. I kind of doubt that they would put a 4K Blu-ray player in a possible PS4 Pro Slim though as I think they'd just opt to keep it cheaper but you never know. They may be able to hold off on new hardware for another 3 years but I'm not sure it will be all that comfortable if third party games are doing better on the Xbox One X. Time will tell though however currently Microsoft is still in the better position right now simply because their system is more capable.

@scatteh316: the industry should be sprinting away from 1080p at full speed.

You think Sony and MS should've basically ignored 4k TVs coming down in price, and ride things out till next gen with just 1080p as the target? Highly disagree. That'd have been like not pushing for 720 and 1080p during last gen. Can't ignore emerging display technology.

Also your timeline is mixed up. I don't believe there will necessarily still be X1 games in 4 years...but I do believe there will be games that X1X can still run. That's MS's potential release model, and I like it...X1X to drop in price, become the flagship/base model, with the next iteration introduced in about 4 years that will run everything top end. Sony may abandon their consoles but MS isn't going to drop full support for X1X after just 3-4 years. Look at the lifespan they're giving original X1 and what the 360 had (still gets some releases, even)....there's no actual evidence, history, or logic, to support your predicton.

If I thought X1X wasn't forward compatible I might not even buy one...or at least, wouldn't pay 499. If a sub-2TF GPU in base X1 can last this long and still get AAAs, a 6TF GPU coming out at the end of this year has at least 5-6 solid years of AAA development ahead of it...6 years would put things into 2023...I think we'll see a new Xbox before then, but X1X will not be cut off.

Next gen and generations are dead. People need to accept this reality.

i think there will need to be a big push on efficiency in hardware and software in order to get any major jump in actual gaming performance. in terms of raw numbers i dont think the hardware will be available to have any major leap on the pro and X1X. MS mentioned some interesting stuff about having DX instructions as part of some processor in the X1X (cant remember the details) to reduce CPU overhead for some common tasks. i know there is also teasing around things like checkerboard rendering on this forum but in reality stuff like that is a good thing. any clever technique to cover weaknesses, squeeze more out of the hardware, even trick the user (extra graphical effects in GT games for replays for example) is a good thing at the end of the day. just...er....give the PC version the option to turn them off where appropriate.

which just further pushes the pro and X1X being a bit of a waste of time. if they just waited. if they waited for 7nm and had a set of hardware that made the most of the tech available at a certain price point in 2018/2019 then it would have been closer to a proper generational push over the PS4 and X1. and there they can hold it (whatever about this gen, i think next gen will go on and on and on). maybe by then HBM would also be workable into a console budget. vega will be ready (perhaps with some navi tech available to customers like MS/sony also). the CPU should be significantly better (and the focus on efficiency to reduce overhead should further help that).

if they just waited until 2018/2019 and released the PS5/X2 then it would have been grand. thats 5 years-ish. gens done. DF talk about a new generation being a clean slate but now thats only kinda true. before the hardware used to radically change. i mean the PS1, 2, 3 and 4 have nothing in common so yeah it was a clean slate. same with the ogx, 360 and X1. but going forward maintaining BC should be less of an issue. i mean if MS can get ogx and 360 games running on the X1 then getting all those games to run on an X2 should be relatively straight forward (assuming that the X2/PS5 will be x86/PC GPU based).

then just give 3rd parties the choice. if they still want to make X1/PS4 games then let em off. if they want to make enhancements specifically for the X2...sure. it would be like a lot of cross gen games earlier this gen but making it work would be easier. if they want to focus on the PS5/X2....go nuts.

we are also now in the area of diminishing returns (as the DF video showed) so getting the hardware that can make people go wow on horsepower related stuff alone is going to get harder so, as i mentioned above, i think next gen is going to be very long.

Now $499 is reasonable, the hypocrisy.

I feel like the next generation console will probably cost about $550-$600 due to a lack of competition on Sony's end (no competition, no incentive to provide the best value for money). As for an actual generational leap, i reckon the hardware increase from the PS4 Pro will push the absolute minimums of what's acceptable.

I mean, unless Microsoft surprises the console market with a viable competitor with the PlayStation 4, i'm still expecting them to auction off the Xbox brand in pieces (a la THQ's bankruptcy auction) while Nintendo continues to well... be Nintendo?

@flashn00b: you can't be serious??

Sony will be bankrupted before Microsoft sells off Xbox brand.

If you haven't noticed, the Xbox Brand isn't about consoles any more and more as a service across Mobile, PC and Console and VR/AR

@daniel_su123: Sony is worth nearly 50 billion dollars. Bankruptcy is no longer in the cards for them.

Modularity or bust

Thanks to the ProPio generation we won't really see as huge generational leap as before unless this generation is drawn out.

While they could release one soon (1-2 years), it'll be expensive if the want for a generation leap is 7-9 times more compute compared to previous console.

Anyway, fun prediction time :)

PS5 = 2020/2021

24 GB RAM at most

1TB SSHD

close to 4x better than the Pro

$ 399-499

XB2 will probably be released sometime after but better hardware.

@leonkennedy97: Lol that doesn't mean they can't go bankrupt...

Microsoft is worth almost 600 billion. and is considered the one of the big 3 (Apple, Google, Microsoft)

@daniel_su123: Yes and the vast majority of that money comes from Windows. The question isn't if MS go Bankrupt (it never will).

The question is will MS view the Xbox brand as relevant. I personally think they will.

@airraidjet:

Next year PC industry has GDDR6 which is another step above GDDR5X-11000. GDDR5X has a higher latency when compared to GDDR5.

The difference between GDDR5 and GDDR5X is the data bus connection which is 2X wider on GDDR5X.

http://www.guru3d.com/articles-pages/nvidia-geforce-gtx-1070-review,7.html

The GeForce GTX 1070 founders edition is 10.5 inches in length which is roughly 27 cm so it should fit comfortably in pretty much any decent chassis. The cooler that GTX 1070 uses is vapor chamber cooling, for a < 250W design graphics card, similar to its bigger brother the 1080.

When we open it up, on the inside we spot a copper vapor chamber, which is able to draw more heat off the GPU and components on the PCB including memory and VRM, ultimately allowing the GPU to run cooler and thus boost to higher clock speeds.

This vapor chamber is combined with a large, dual-slot aluminum heatsink to dissipate heat off the chip. A blower style fan then exhausts this hot air through the back of the graphics card and is exhausted at the exit to the left.

https://pcpartpicker.com/products/video-card/#c=369&sort=price&page=1

GTX 1070's prices are slowly climbing up and has passed $400 USD mark e.g. $409. It was less than $400 a few weeks ago.

@hrt_rulz01: In 2012 they were in legitimate danger but they have posted profits year after and have turned the company around. Bankruptcy is no longer a concern for Sony.

How??? because of Consoles??

Xbox hasn't been about consoles for years now.

Like I said Xbox is more about services then it is about Consoles.

If they are chasing them Ks/resolutions then be prepared to pay for it. :P

@daniel_su123: Will they keep Xbox as a service? Or perhaps just merge it into "windows live" That would be a sad day personally especially since there are already enough services.

Yes, everything they have done, Xbox/Windows Store, Xbox Live, XBL Gold, Game Pass are all services.

I don't see why they wouldn't.

Microsoft is just playing the long game. It's inevitable that Consoles and PC will fully merge. Since Microsoft owns Windows and Xbox, they have a massive advantage in that regard. This gives them an opportunity to push Windows 10 S.

@daniel_su123: I don't see Sony or Nintendo merging with PC. PS now has not been a raving success.

Everything hits a wall coming 2020. Moore's law on its knees.

I hope next-gen reaches this kind of fidelity. No doubt this tech is costly.

Stack logic chips are the next stage after stack memory. The problem with 2 logic chips stack is 2X chip cost and thermals over a single chip version.

Death wish for consoles if they decide to go with a generational leap.

You guys seem to forget about inflation.

People spend $1000 on phones these days. It is a different market than in 2005/6. These last batches of consoles, the ps4/X1, could have gotten away with a higher price especially given the lifespan of their precursors. The "Pro" and "X" suffix(?) is likely a test for the following generation product line. If successful it is likely both Sony and Microsoft will launch two models of their respected brands--PS5/PS5pro and Xbox Two/Xbox TwoX--simultaneously. This would allow them to cater to both their casual markets and aficionado markets. $399 and $599. That's what I predict.

600 euro

Except they can't merge with PC.....?? they don't own the platform.

In the future expect Xbox consoles to just become Windows 10 S-like PCs that have a Xbox UI and a controller, with M&K support. and then third party OEMs will follow the spec.

Which can in theory kill 2 birds with one stone, (compete against Steam and Sony)

Give i three years and all xbox and playstation will be 4k native. It isnt standard yet so honestly this mid gen push for high dollar is kinda silly to me. Few years and they can cheaply build a 4k beast of a console. Thats about as "next gen" as i think its gonna be for a while though. Not nuch else to improve. Hopefully game creators go back to putting more work into gameplay and less on just graphics being king.

We reached a point that most people dont care about graphics anymore since games already look good. Pro and X sales will be poor compared to their cheaper PS4 and S. It will take years to deliver something truly next gen people can jump on. Games literally need to look full CGI next decade for people to even care.

@daniel_su123: Thats where they are in trouble. The vast majority of PC gamers are already hooked into steam.

$400 in 2005 is equal to $500 in 2017.

If you want a true Next Gen Leap you'll have to wait until there are 2 more die shrinks and it'll need to cost $500 if you expect the HW to wow you.

If you're ok with consoles that offer similar experiences then $400 will get you that.

Well they killed off their mobile division, just because the company is profitable doesn't mean they won't trim part of the business that are not making them a return on investment. Although it's unlikely I must admit, they would only kill Xbox if they manage to get a foothold into the PC market which they haven't.

true not yet, but they can just force their way into the market.

Windows 10 S is an example of that. They'll scale up from to gain a foothold. Lets be honest, the more people that use Windows 10 S the more game developers move away from Steam.

Or they can do the sneaky way

I can imagine Microsoft basically having UWP as the way to target 64 bit ARM or any X86 architecture with major changes and the only way to get it is through the Windows Store. Microsoft did have a special system in place for RT, where apps that are to be downloaded outside the Windows Store in RT had to get special permissions from Microsoft.

I can see it applying here, companies like Adobe may have special permissions to sell UWPs in their own distributions to ensure ARM compatibility on Windows 10 ARM PCs. EA, Ubisoft and Activision/Blizzard in theory may need special permission from Microsoft to have ARM64/ARM32 compatible games to run outside the Windows Store.

Which in theory means that UWP will become a regulated platform. Which is a problem if UWP becomes the only way to have compatibility for that specific architecture outside of emulation.

Here are some numbers and ratios we should consider when talking about true next gen

Xbox Original : 5.8 GFLOPS

Xbox 360 : 240 GFLOPS (~ 41 times faster than Xbox Original)

Xbox One: 1300GFLOPS ( ~5.4 times faster than the 360)

Xbox One X: 6000 GFLOPS (~4.6 times faster than the One)

The largest jump made; at least for the Xbox, is 41 times faster. If we are to go with the Xbox One level upgrade from the 360 for a next gen system we are talking about a GPU that is clocking in 32.4 TFLOPS. The reality that manufacturers and gamers have to face is that the advancement is slowing down. We went from a 41 times faster to 5.4 times faster to 4.6 times faster. I am absolutely certain that the next upgrade is NOT going to be more than 2X faster. And this is just looking at the GPU.