If MS released a system this year or next I think the ps3 would be able to outsell it on a weekly basis and I think ps3s games would beable to remain competitive in quality and not get blown away if Sony continued to FULLY support it.
First of all MS has a weak first party they got lucky this gen and got alot of free party support but that seems to be shifting for the ps3 and the ps3 would have a higher install base then any new console and with continued Sony support so MS would even have trouble commissioning exclusives and all mutliplats would cater to the ps3 (much like they catered to the 360 earlier this gen).
Since we hit the point of diminishing returns for both advance technology and speeding alot on a game even if MS buys exclusives they won't take full advantage of the new xbox's hardware advantage and likely not significantly outdo ps3 games performance wise and their first party might get the budget for that but they won't out do ps3s games fun wise.
In addition to that ps3 would be at a lower price how much lower would depend on how much more advanced the next xbox would be, so if it was competitively priced it would have no chance of outdoing ps3 game wise and if it wasn't it would have no chance of selling decently and the 360s failrate would make people hesitant to get a new xbox system at launch and the fact that they charge for online, a fact unknown to the majority of people who bought a 360 until they had games and several assumed everyone charged (talking parents and the like not forum frequenters) will also deter some people. I really don't see a way a new xbox could outsell the ps3 sales wise if the user-base stayed healthy and as long as Sony keeps coming out with great games for it it's going to
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