Forbes: PSVR Stands To Be Almost 3x More Popular Than Oculus Rift In 2016

Sony's PlayStation VR Stands To Be Almost 3x More Popular Than Oculus Rift In 2016

Jason Evangelho ,

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[Coverage update: The 1st Generation Rift Will Have A Lifespan 'Closer To A Mobile Phone']

If you think Sony isn’t in a fantastic position to be a leader in Virtual Reality with their upcoming PlayStation VR device, think again.

Pre-order sales for the Oculus Rift went live today at a steeper-than-expected $599 asking price (in late 2014 Palmer Luckey said “We want to stay in that $200-$400 price range.”), which includes two games and an Xbox One controller. The cost of entry for that VR experience extends to buying or building a VR-capable PC, which Oculus and Nvidia agree hovers near $1000. All told, that’s an “all-in” cost of about $1600 for the Oculus Rift.

GPU maker Nvidia estimates that when the Oculus Rift ships later this quarter, there will only be 13 million PCs that are able to run an optimized VR experience.

Jason Paul, general manager of Nvidia’s Shield, gaming, and VR business, has insight into the hefty demands for gaming in Virtual Reality. Speaking to VentureBeat, he said: “If you look at your typical PC gaming experience, 90 percent of the gamers out there play at 1080p. For a smooth experience you don’t want to go below 30fps. Compare that to VR where the displays are about 2K, but you have to render closer to 3K, and you don’t want to go below 90fps. It’s about a sevenfold increase in raw performance to render for VR versus traditional PC gaming.”

Meanwhile, we just learned that Sony’s $349 PlayStation 4 continues to sell briskly, with the company approaching 36 million units sold globally. Every PS4 sold is capable of running the PlayStation VR (formerly Project Morpheus) experience. On the most basic level, that means there are 36 million PS4 systems in the wild right now, capable of running an optimized VR experience (“optimized” since there’s only one platform with uniform specs to develop for).

Sony is in a ridiculously strong position right now. Nvidia’s above estimate means there are nearly three times as many VR-capable PS4 consoles as there are VR-capable PCs. Granted, their numbers are sourced from just PCs driven by Nvidia GPUs, but consider that Nvidia does own the majority of that market share. The actual collective number is probably higher, but not high enough to influence the argument.

Michael Swierczek of Evercore ISI tells me the research firm expects Sony’s PlayStation VR to launch at about $350, and my own sources suggest it won’t release any higher than $499. So, for consumers who want a VR experience on PlayStation, their “all-in” cost shouldn’t exceed $850 in a worst case scenario, which is nearly half the “all-in” cost of an Oculus Rift.

Adding fuel to that fire is a newly published study by SuperData Research, specifically this slide which suggests console players are willing to spend more money on VR than their PC playing counterparts:

Now of course PlayStation VR isn’t capable of delivering the highest-fidelity experience against competitors like the Rift and HTCHTCCY +% Vive, especially taking into account the near-limitless horsepower of a dedicated gaming PC. The thing is, the majority of consumers don’t care about that. It’s the core reason consoles remain dominant in the living room: They’re approachable, accessible, and affordable.

VR won’t be going mainstream in 2016, and probably not in 2017, but in order for that critical mass adoption to happen, all the guesswork needs to be removed. Confusing system specs and competing products certainly won’t drive VR adoption forward on PC as quickly as it could on a more uniform console environment like the PlayStation 4.

I think it’s perfectly plausible that PlayStation VR could even successfully branch out beyond gaming and offer the range of apps that are needed to capture the mainstream’s attention and really propel VR into the limelight. Multimedia experiences, shopping apps, virtual theme parks, and non-game simulations of all kinds. Much in the same way consumers flocked to the PS2 for its DVD player.

Sony is coming into this market, technically speaking, with a much higher potential installed base than Oculus Rift or HTC’s Vive, and a much more affordable cost of entry.

So, if you’re a developer or someone brand new to VR, which one will you choose?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonevangelho/2016/01/06/sonys-playstation-vr-stands-to-be-almost-3x-more-popular-than-oculus-rift-in-2016/

As a gamer, I totally choose both :)

As someone who doesn't give a damn, I choose neither.

One day, you will join us.

@Shewgenja: When Dead or Alive: Xtreme 3 is out, yeah.

cantevenblameyou.jpg

Yeah no surprise, the PC gimmick is to expensive

Biggest catch here is:

"Contributor".

So while the author does try to base his opinion on theoretical numbers (with a lot of assumptions for both sides of his arguments) it's value is no more than one of our own. So do with it, what you will.

I chose none and will never buy it...on any platform.

"Near limitless power of a dedicated PC" lol

"The thing is, the majority of consumers don’t care about that [quality]." Actually they do, but it's not the only thing they care about. It's a tradee-off.

Oh, you will. Resistance is futile.

Wait. That guy believes that PS4 can do 2k at 90 fps 0_0 Apparently that guy is absolutely clueless about gaming hardware.

Well you can make a 4K Pong that runs on 200fps and ps4 is strong enough to run it...

I'm over here like "Wait, you expect first-gen VR games to have draw distances and geometry that has to match modern console games?"

Honestly guys, check out a Gear VR and realize that is the absolute bare minimum for modern VR. You might be surprised. Guys, things aren't going to be PS1 or PS2 graphics just because it's VR. Modern hardware is powerful enough for this stuff.

As of now I couldn't care less for VR. There are no great games and its expensive. If it's still around in a few years I'll check it out. Also, of course PSVR is going to be more popular. It should be a lot cheaper as well.

I'll just wait till everything is out

Screw VR. i would rather save the money for more games.

no you can't because the Ps4 cannot output 2K, the GPU may be able to handle 2K but the hardware isn't designed to output a 2K signal.

It only supports 4K output for videos and pictures not games.

'The PS4 will be enabled for 4K resolution for videos, the interface, and movies through Hulu or Netflix, but it will not have the capability to display games in 4K.'

http://uk.ign.com/wikis/playstation-4/3D_Technology_and_4K_Resolution

It was a figure of speech.

I am more interested in application of vr outside of gaming like in education for example.

Man, thats a real fucking bummer and a death sentence for VR if it turns out to be true

Just like the Xbox One did for PS4 by launching at $500, Sony now has an easy opportunity to win a PR victory by launching the headset at an affordable price. It would be somewhat unusual if the headset cost more than the console that utilizes it. If Sony can bring the PSVR price down to $350 it's hard to imagine any scenario where it doesn't sell much better than Oculus.

I'm a PC gamer, I own a GTX 970, but the issue with Oculus Rift isn't necessarily my ability to afford it (which I can) but my ability to justify such an expensive device when I have no sense of how useful it will be or what kind of future it will have. It's a hefty entry price for something many people are on the fence about.

Now, many people dismiss PSVR as trash by comparison - and from a technical perspective, it may well be, but it is still light years ahead of the quality of mobile VR. That makes PSVR likely the most affordable mainstream solution which isn't an extremely compromised mobile solution. For the sake of VR's future, it would be bad to see any of these devices (Rift, Vive, PSVR) fail, so I hope all of them find some measure of success.

Another reason why it's important to bring device cost to $400 or less is because it makes it easier to gift as a present during holiday seasons.

I have no interest in either of them or VR so I'm not getting any of them.

I can get behind that. Pretty dead-on, actually. Or, if it launches at a high price like >$400, be damn sure to have a plan to bring the price of the unit down for mainstream penetration in the short-term.