Gamepro: The Wii won, but for how long?

Fact: Nintendo's Wii is on track to outsell Sony's record-setting PS2 at 115 million units sold. That's according to comparative NPD sales data for both systems. No other console has sold faster in its first eight months of availability than the Wii. Source.

Despite its undisputed initial success, however, several industry pundits remain unconvinced. "The Wii will fade," they say, suggesting that the machine's novel motion-controls and antiquated graphics technology will soon cause the system to wane in popularity.

However, perception is everything, and Nintendo owns it at the moment. Because of this, people continue to gobble up Wiis, andthird-party publishers have more exclusive games forthcoming for the system than both the Xbox 360 and PS3 as a result.

But Nintendo can't last on great marketing and the novelty of Wii Sports alone. They must keep a steady influx of Wii Sports-eque games in the pipe like the forthcoming Wii Fit and Wii Music if they wish to keep their audience engaged.

In other words, anything is possible. If Miyamoto and company have taught us anything over the last year, it is that they can't be underestimated.

Do you agree? GamePro asks how long will it last? Could the Wii really outsell the PS2 in the long-run, or will the console be in third place by this time next year? Is it possible that consumers buy the Wii and a HD console (PS3 or 360) this gen? What do you guys think?

I can see consumers going for both the Wii and a HD console this gen.

HDTV rates are rapidly rising and sooner or later consumers may want a console like the PS3 or 360 to go with their new high tech equipment. Plus, I don't think Wii is really targeting the same market as the PS3 and 360.

I think the DS opened up a whole new market (the non-gamer market) and I think Wii is expanding on that. I don't think the PS2 market has moved on from the PS2 yet though, which is why I think the PS3 will emerge with strong sales in a year or two. Speculation of course, but that's my view on this issue.

It's selling the most but has the worst games. :|

I believe that only the PS3 MIGHT be able to out-sell PS2. Not Wii.

Off-Topic, i HATE how some fanboys diss GamePro as some "noobs".

I believe that only the PS3 MIGHT be able to out-sell PS2. Not Wii.

Off-Topic, i HATE how some fanboys diss GamePro as some "noobs".

Solid-CELL

Yeah, I like Gamepro too.

This is a well written feature and they detail both sides of the argument really well in my view. And there are 2 sides to this argument, nobody knows for sure yet what will happen.

The Wii has a big chance of passing the PS2. Those who think that graphics are all that matter need to realize that people won't be spending the big bucks just to game. In fact, Nintendo will always have the price advantage with the Wii over their competitors.

Also, the nongaming market is a lot bigger than the PS2 market. It doesn't matter if the so called PS2 market hasn't migrated to next gen market yet. 1+ billion people (North America, Japan, and Europe) >>>> the 115 million PS2 market. And there is no proof that the PS2 market hasn't decided upon a next gen console. It's quite possible that some have already decided upon a console and have selected the Wii.

Nintendo has all the momentum right now. In order for a console to sell as well as the PS2, it has to do it consistently from month to month. The 360 and PS3 has not done this. The Wii has. The PS2 did. The Wii isn't suddenly going to stop selling. In the previous 2 gens, it was Nintendo going it alone against Sony and MS. This time around, they're backed up by third party devs who have announced games for it. This will keep people interested in the Wii.

So yes, the Wii will definitely outsell the PS2. The next step to prove is whether the games will be as good or better than the PS2. We'll see once 3rd parties starting bringing out the next wave of great games.

People put way too much emphasis on graphics. Seniors and epople who have never ownder a console before are gobbling up wii's, you think they even know what 'graphics' means? :lol:

And the wii can pull off beautiful games with potentially amazing gameplay...mario galaxy is one.

Beautiful enough, it doesn't have to impress me with fancy shader effects, it just neds to look nice and play even better.

Sorry cows, lems, hermits, the wii will not fail, no matter how much you will it to.

Honestly, the reasons people say it's going to fade are bumpkis. Established gamers like the people posting here may see the wiimote as a novelty, but the causla and non-gamer audiance do not. Also, while the poor hardware may bother established gamers like the ones here, the casuals and non-gamers are simply not bothered by it.

I honestly feel the wii will out sell the PS2.

third-party publishers have more exclusive games forthcoming for the system than both the Xbox 360 and PS3 as a result.

the-very-best

The Wii has a big chance of passing the PS2. Those who think that graphics are all that matter need to realize that people won't be spending the big bucks just to game. In fact, Nintendo will always have the price advantage with the Wii over their competitors.

Also, the nongaming market is a lot bigger than the PS2 market.

So yes, the Wii will definitely outsell the PS2. The next step to prove is whether the games will be as good or better than the PS2. We'll see once 3rd parties starting bringing out the next wave of great games.

Zhengi

I don't think it will "definitely" outsell the PS2. A lot can happen in a short time. Also, price advantage is important but I do think consumers may want to get into the PS3 or 360 at some point as games like GTAIV, FFXIII, MGSIV, Halo 3, GT5 etc will command plenty of hype and attention.

And the GC was cheaper than the PS2/Xbox from memory, that didn't really help it. People bought the console which has the most games they want.

Also, no evidence that the non-gaming market (ie the gamers that like Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wiisports etc) is bigger than the casual market (market that like GT, GTA, Halo etc), but I do agree that it seems to be a massive market.

I think if Wii can get enough quality games it has a good shot of continuing to sell really well this gen.

People put way too much emphasis on graphics. Seniors and epople who have never ownder a console before are gobbling up wii's, you think they even know what 'graphics' means? :lol:

And the wii can pull off beautiful games with potentially amazing gameplay...mario galaxy is one.

Beautiful enough, it doesn't have to impress me with fancy shader effects, it just neds to look nice and play even better.

Sorry cows, lems, hermits, the wii will not fail, no matter how much you will it to.

Gangans

i like dis post, very much:D

Actually there is a lot of evidance that the non-gamer market is much much larger than the causal market. I'll try to fish up some numbers.goblaa

Bigger?

Maybe as big, but I don't know about bigger. I mean, Nintendogs, Brain Training and Wiisports have sold really well for sure, but not one of them has done as well as GTA.

Either way, neither market is going to disappear which is why I think Wii and PS3 or 360 will sell very well this gen. Who will come out on top? Who knows, but my guess is the PS3.

[QUOTE="Zhengi"]

The Wii has a big chance of passing the PS2. Those who think that graphics are all that matter need to realize that people won't be spending the big bucks just to game. In fact, Nintendo will always have the price advantage with the Wii over their competitors.

Also, the nongaming market is a lot bigger than the PS2 market.

So yes, the Wii will definitely outsell the PS2. The next step to prove is whether the games will be as good or better than the PS2. We'll see once 3rd parties starting bringing out the next wave of great games.

the-very-best

I don't think it will "definitely" outsell the PS2. A lot can happen in a short time. Also, price advantage is important but I do think consumers may want to get into the PS3 or 360 at some point as games like GTAIV, FFXIII, MGSIV, Halo 3, GT5 etc will command plenty of hype and attention.

And the GC was cheaper than the PS2/Xbox from memory, that didn't really help it. People bought the console which has the most games they want.

Also, no evidence that the non-gaming market (ie the gamers that like Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wiisports etc) is bigger than the casual market (market that like GT, GTA, Halo etc), but I do agree that it seems to be a massive market.

I think if Wii can get enough quality games it has a good shot of continuing to sell really well this gen.

Well, as to where the Wii ends up, that's opinion until we see the final tally when this gen is over. To go back to your argument that people will own 2 consoles, it's more likely that one of those 2 consoles will be the Wii than the other two. I don't really see people buying both a 360 and a PS3 since they both share so many similar games and the price would be astronomical. So it's very likely that people who choose 2 or more consoles will have a Wii and this will increase the overall numbers of the Wii.

The who enjoy GTAIV, FFXIII, MGSIV, Halo 3, etc. will get what they want, but the two systems are doing little to pursue the casual market where the Wii is dominating and where the PS2 dominated as well. Not all 115 million of those people bought GTA, MGS, FF, GT, etc. or else their sales numbers would be over 30+ million sold each. That means that the PS2 market is not solely dependent on the games you listed. Of course, this is not to say that those games won't have an impact on hardware sales. The only problem is what I pointed out earlier. Consoles that sell the most have consistent sales from month to month. The Wii is doing this. When big games come out, the consoles will have a surge. Let's take Japan as an example since we get weekly sales. This surge happened when Blue Dragon was released for the 360. This surge happened when Gundamn and Hot Shots Golf 5 were released for the PS3. The same happened when Dragon Quest Swords was released for the Wii. But eventually, all 3 consoles returned to their normal rate of sales after those big hits. And when this happened, the console that was still in the lead was the Wii. Expect the same to happen when those games you listed are released.

As for price, this gen is different because the price differences are so vast. People like to point out that the power and graphics of the Wii is huge when compared to the other two. They don't consider that the prices are vastly different too and this will have an impact on the consumer's decision on which to buy. There is also the fact that Nintendo has done things differently this gen. They've advertised more, they've created a unique system, they're concentrating on a different market, etc. All of these are distinguishing the Wii from the competition more than the GC did against the PS2/Xbox.

As for the non-gaming market, this can actually be shown. If you look at the PS2 numbers (115 million), we can estimate that about 50-60 million of those were sold in the US. Then we look at the US census bureau: 300 million people in the US. Subtract the PS2 audience from the population and you get 240+ million non gamers vs. 50-60 million PS2 owners. Now you can't tell me that the nongaming population isn't bigger than the PS2 population. If this wasn't the case, then they would all be owning a PS2 and the numbers would be even greater than they are now. Apply this so the same population in Europe and Japan and you'll find a similar situation. Also, you bring up the DS market. Well, the DS is up to 40+ million and it continually outsells everything. The DS is doing a lot better than the PS2 and might actually surpass it in some markets very soon (ex. Japan).

As for games, I was optimistic that companies would bring more good quality games to the Wii. I haven't seen that yet and that has lowered my enthusiasm and belief that they might actually do it. So we'll have to see if they'll bring out the quality games for the Wii. I'm hoping they will as logically it makes sense to make games for the Wii cause of sales. We'll just have to wait and see.

Well, as to where the Wii ends up, that's opinion until we see the final tally when this gen is over. To go back to your argument that people will own 2 consoles, it's more likely that one of those 2 consoles will be the Wii than the other two. I don't really see people buying both a 360 and a PS3 since they both share so many similar games and the price would be astronomical. So it's very likely that people who choose 2 or more consoles will have a Wii and this will increase the overall numbers of the Wii.

The who enjoy GTAIV, FFXIII, MGSIV, Halo 3, etc. will get what they want, but the two systems are doing little to pursue the casual market where the Wii is dominating and where the PS2 dominated as well. Not all 115 million of those people bought GTA, MGS, FF, GT, etc. or else their sales numbers would be over 30+ million sold each. That means that the PS2 market is not solely dependent on the games you listed. Of course, this is not to say that those games won't have an impact on hardware sales. The only problem is what I pointed out earlier. Consoles that sell the most have consistent sales from month to month. The Wii is doing this. When big games come out, the consoles will have a surge. Let's take Japan as an example since we get weekly sales. This surge happened when Blue Dragon was released for the 360. This surge happened when Gundamn and Hot Shots Golf 5 were released for the PS3. The same happened when Dragon Quest Swords was released for the Wii. But eventually, all 3 consoles returned to their normal rate of sales after those big hits. And when this happened, the console that was still in the lead was the Wii. Expect the same to happen when those games you listed are released.

As for price, this gen is different because the price differences are so vast. People like to point out that the power and graphics of the Wii is huge when compared to the other two. They don't consider that the prices are vastly different too and this will have an impact on the consumer's decision on which to buy. There is also the fact that Nintendo has done things differently this gen. They've advertised more, they've created a unique system, they're concentrating on a different market, etc. All of these are distinguishing the Wii from the competition more than the GC did against the PS2/Xbox.

As for the non-gaming market, this can actually be shown. If you look at the PS2 numbers (115 million), we can estimate that about 50-60 million of those were sold in the US. Then we look at the US census bureau: 300 million people in the US. Subtract the PS2 audience from the population and you get 240+ million non gamers vs. 50-60 million PS2 owners. Now you can't tell me that the nongaming population isn't bigger than the PS2 population. If this wasn't the case, then they would all be owning a PS2 and the numbers would be even greater than they are now. Apply this so the same population in Europe and Japan and you'll find a similar situation. Also, you bring up the DS market. Well, the DS is up to 40+ million and it continually outsells everything. The DS is doing a lot better than the PS2 and might actually surpass it in some markets very soon (ex. Japan).

As for games, I was optimistic that companies would bring more good quality games to the Wii. I haven't seen that yet and that has lowered my enthusiasm and belief that they might actually do it. So we'll have to see if they'll bring out the quality games for the Wii. I'm hoping they will as logically it makes sense to make games for the Wii cause of sales. We'll just have to wait and see.

Zhengi

Nice points.

As for the 2 console argument, I agree with you and that's what I was trying to say, ie. consumers will pick Wii and a PS3 or 360. They're not going to go for both. Too similar. Obviously my prediction would be that they go PS3 and Wii, but I don't think Wii will have consistent sales throughout this whole gen, while I do think PS3 will pick up in 2008 and maintain its momentum.

I think PS2 sold so well because it had a wide variety of games for every market. PS3 has lost the non gamer market (to the Wii) but it can make up lost ground if Blu-ray becomes successful. Lots of speculation for this console war, but we really can't tell what's going to happen.

You can't say there are 240 million non gamers in the US versus 50 million casuals. I mean, I know how you got to that but you can't say that every single one of those 240 million people is going to pick up a Wii just because there is a non gamer. There are just some people who don't play games, simple as that. Then there are non gamers who are very much like the GTA/Halo casuals, who just want some quick fun with games like Brain Training/Wiisports etc. That market is pretty big as shown by the DS but like I said, we have no idea of how big it really is. I think it'd be about the same size as the casual market, but who knows?

I'm also optimistic 3rd parties will eventually bring some good games to the Wii. I can see the console selling really well throughout this whole gen but I do think it will lose a bit of momentum, especially when PS3/360 start to get their big games. I know it's not targeting the same market, but the media will probably lose interest in the Wii eventually and that's one big factor driving Wii sales atm.

It's too early to tell where any of the 3 consoles are going to finish. There are still plenty of games on all the consoles to sway consumers.

I think by this time next year we should have a pretty good idea of how the generation will play out.

As for the wii fading, it could, but it could also be a success like the DS is, with it almost always selling over 100K, even well after launch. If it gets enough good games, it will sell.

You can't say there are 240 million non gamers in the US versus 50 million casuals. I mean, I know how you got to that but you can't say that every single one of those 240 million people is going to pick up a Wii just because there is a non gamer. There are just some people who don't play games, simple as that. Then there are non gamers who are very much like the GTA/Halo casuals, who just want some quick fun with games like Brain Training/Wiisports etc. That market is pretty big as shown by the DS but like I said, we have no idea of how big it really is. I think it'd be about the same size as the casual market, but who knows?

Easy. The don't need to buy a Wii. Just look at the ratio. I'm gonna guess that 95% of non-gamers never pick up a wii...even if they play it at a friends house and have a blast. Still, that 5% is 10s of millions of sales. Add that ot the casual market and the hardcore gamers and the wii can easily add up to PS2 level of sales.

And the PS2 is roughly 42mill in NA.

[QUOTE="goblaa"]Actually there is a lot of evidance that the non-gamer market is much much larger than the causal market. I'll try to fish up some numbers.the-very-best

Bigger?

Maybe as big, but I don't know about bigger. I mean, Nintendogs, Brain Training and Wiisports have sold really well for sure, but not one of them has done as well as GTA.

Either way, neither market is going to disappear which is why I think Wii and PS3 or 360 will sell very well this gen. Who will come out on top? Who knows, but my guess is the PS3.

How is the non-gamer market not bigger than current markets? Billions of people > Millions of people theoretically speaking. Maybe people should start saying "Potential Market" rather than actually market cause its not your market if you haven't tapped it yet.

Way to many variables for anyone to make anything remotely close to a guesstimate. The most accurate statement anyone can make is "damned if I know".

[QUOTE="goblaa"]Actually there is a lot of evidance that the non-gamer market is much much larger than the causal market. I'll try to fish up some numbers.the-very-best

It wont be in 3rd place but it wont outsell the ps2, not by a longshot. And it will NEVER reach the quality of games the ps2 did.Uzumaki_Naruto5

It did at launch with Zelda:TP. Though it got an 8.8 here... it is still a 95% on gamerankings.

It'll never rate up to the PS2, but hey, dreaming cost nothing.Panzer_Zwei

Thats irrelevant, the ps2 is a last gen dead/dying console. The wii is kicking this generation of consoles ass :lol: