GTA IV Signalled the End of "Next-gen" Gaming?

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies. With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copies total. What's more, it cost a record $100 million to develop.

But it gets worse.

Despite being part of one of the most popular video game series of all time, the arrival of GTA IV failed to boost sales of new next-generation consoles. (PS3 and 360 are defined as "next-gen" for boasting the best and latest graphics features.) Meanwhile, sales of the non-next-gen, GTA IV-less Nintendo Wii were double that of PS3/360's numbers combined. If Grand Theft Auto can't move more machines, nothing can. Which not only suggests that the market for next-gen consoles has been exhausted, but that the audience for big budget, AAA next-gen titles has been tapped out, too.

Which is why I think GTA IV is next-gen's siren song, and a sign of drastic changes to come. Expect to see games made for lower budgets, targeted at wider audiences (ones that aren't fixated on high-end 3D graphics) and delivered over broadband with a micropayment program in place. Don't expect a follow-up to the 360 or PS3 anytime soon, either. In other words, the days when so-called "next-gen" gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry's future will be shaped by games like Rock Band.

http://gigaom.com/2008/06/18/why-gta-iv-was-the-beginning-of-the-end/

I've been saying this from the beginning. Hardcore gaming may have found its temporary home on the 360 and PS3, but its not strong enough to fight off the sheer numbers of Wii's potential audience. Expect "AAA" game development to drop in the next few years for these consoles...

No.

Edit: To clarify, it never really existed.

Call of Duty 4 sold 10 million and still selling.

Wii Sports has sold 24 million and still selling.

no-GhostMLD-

What's the financial incentive when the Wii outsold the PS3 and 360 combined on what was supposed to be their biggest month of the year?

Call of Duty 4 sold 10 million and still selling.

Wii Sports has sold 24 million and still selling.

blitzkid1

How many games like Call of Duty 4 are there? 3, 4?

wow...fail...no.

1) people need to stop using "next-gen" to describe THIS GEN of gaming. Its been almost 3 years now, seriously, the habit should be broken.

2) SA sold 21 million on a console of usebase 100+ million in 4 years. GTA IV sold 9 million on consoles whose total dont even top 40 million, in 2 months. where the alarm?

furthermore, the 360 has proven itself to be able to sell 1 million+ on new ips such as dead rising, lost planet, gears of war etc. 1 million units sold is a milestone for any game and is what msot companies aim for. If you think hardcore gaming is dieing, think again.

It wasn't an exclusive killer app. So neither console got a boost.

Look at MGS 4. PS3 sales jumped higher than when GTA 4 came out.

Halo 3 sold more consoles than GTA 4

So did Gears of War

I think exclusive games do more sales boost, just a hunch.

San Andreas selling 21 mln in 4 years whilst GTA4 sold half that in 2 months = death to traditional console gaming? Excuse me if I don't follow cryptic analyst/non-gamer observers logic.

Sure it didn't move systems but your assuming that people aren't planning on getting one in that thing they call future.

also a ton of games sold over a million on the 360 alone

Bioshock
Dead Rising
Lost Planet
Mass Effect
Viva Pinata
Saints Row
GRAW
Rainbow Six Vegas
GRAW 2
Rainbow Six Vegas 2
Gears of War-over 5 million
COD 2,3,4- all sold over a million
Forza 2
PGR 3
Dead or Alive 4

Heck Lost Odyssey is on its way. and thats a jrpgjg4xchamp

i think about 40 games have sold atleast 1 million on the xbox since launch

The Wii is selling fast because its more of a "secondary console" to most gamers and just a toy to casual gamers... Notice there are and never will be as many Wii supporters on System wars compared to any other platform? Even though they should outnumber everyone...

Casual gaming is a lucrative buisness but it's not one thats going to last. The Wii will do well, but I doubt we'll be seeing more of its kind any time soon.

[QUOTE="jg4xchamp"]also a ton of games sold over a million on the 360 alone

Bioshock
Dead Rising
Lost Planet
Mass Effect
Viva Pinata
Saints Row
GRAW
Rainbow Six Vegas
GRAW 2
Rainbow Six Vegas 2
Gears of War-over 5 million
COD 2,3,4- all sold over a million
Forza 2
PGR 3
Dead or Alive 4

Heck Lost Odyssey is on its way. and thats a jrpgJPOBS

i think about 40 games have sold atleast 1 million on the xbox since launch

Call of Duty 4 sold 10 million and still selling.

Wii Sports has sold 24 million and still selling.

blitzkid1

Thats not a fair comparison lol, considering wii sports comes with the damn console...

The Wii is selling fast because its more of a "secondary console" to most gamers and just a toy to casual gamers... Notice there are and never will be as many Wii supporters on System wars compared to any other platform? Even though they should outnumber everyone...

Casual gaming is a lucrative buisness but it's not one thats going to last. The Wii will do well, but I doubt we'll be seeing more of its kind any time soon.

fluxorator

That's because the Wii's audience: soccer moms, 12 and under children, grandparents, don't go to gaming forums to spout BS about their favorite platform... :|

Oh and for kicks lets throw in the PS3....remember when it didn't sell software?

Resistance- over a million
Uncharted -over a million
MGS 4- Over a million
Ratchet and Clank- over a million
Heavenly Sword- over a million
Motorstorm- over a million

Devil May Cry 4- on both 360 and PS3 a million each
COD 4- same as above

The list goes on.jg4xchamp

[QUOTE="blitzkid1"]

Call of Duty 4 sold 10 million and still selling.

Wii Sports has sold 24 million and still selling.

gurjiwan

Thats not a fair comparison lol, considering wii sports comes with the damn console...

What about Wii Fit, that game has been on the top of Amazon's list for months now, beating out both GTAs...

also a ton of games sold over a million on the 360 alone

Bioshock
Dead Rising
Lost Planet
Mass Effect
Viva Pinata
Saints Row
GRAW
Rainbow Six Vegas
GRAW 2
Rainbow Six Vegas 2
Gears of War-over 5 million
COD 2,3,4- all sold over a million
Forza 2
PGR 3
Dead or Alive 4

Heck Lost Odyssey is on its way. and thats a jrpgjg4xchamp

• Halo 3 (8.1 million)[20]
• Gears of War (4.7 million)[21]
• Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (3.172 million approximately: 3.04 million in US,[22] 78,000 in Canada,[23] 53,501 in Japan)[24]
• Grand Theft Auto IV (2.6 million approximately: 1.85 million in US,[25] 750,000 in UK)[26]
• Forza Motorsport 2 (2.274 million approximately: 2.23 million in US,[19] 31,255 in Japan,[24] 12,600 in Canada)[27]
• BioShock (2.2 million shipped, includes PC version)[28]
• Marvel: Ultimate Alliance (2.08 million in US)[19]
• Guitar Hero II (2 million in North America and Western Europe)[29]
• Saints Row (2 million)[30]
• Assassin's Creed (1.985 million approximately: 1.87 million in US,[22] 60,000 in Canada,[23] 55,041 in Japan)[24]
• Madden NFL 07 (1.72 million in US)[19]
• Mass Effect (1.6 million)[20]
• The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion (1.562 million approximately: 1.49 million in US,[19] 72,274 in Japan)[24]
• Madden NFL 08 (1.51 million in US)[19]
• Crackdown (1.5 million)[31]
• Perfect Dark Zero (1.5 million)[32]
• Lost Planet: Extreme Condition (1.5 million)[33]
• Call of Duty 2 (1.4 million)[34]
• Dead Rising (1.4 million)[33]
• Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (1.352 million approximately: 1.32 million in US,[19] 32,000 in Canada)[23]
• Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six: Vegas (1.291 million approximately: 1.27 million in US,[19] 18,592 and 2,731 Platinum Collection version in Japan)[24]
• Call of Duty 3 (1.234 million approximately: 1.22 million in US,[19] 14,194 in Japan)[24]
• Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter (1.211 million approximately: 1.2 million in US,[35] 8,903 and 1,622 Platinum Collection version in Japan)[24]
• Fight Night Round 3 (1.15 million in US)[19]
• Dead or Alive 4 (1 million)[36]
• The Orange Box (at least 1 million)[37]
• Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 (1 million)[38]
• Uno (1 million)[39]
• + 25 million XBL arcade downloads
  

1) people need to stop using "next-gen" to describe THIS GEN of gaming. Its been almost 3 years now, seriously, the habit should be broken.

2) SA sold 21 million on a console of usebase 100+ million in 2 years. GTA IV sold 9 million on consoles whose total dont even top 40 million, in 2 months. where the alarm?

furthermore, the 360 has proven itself to be able to sell 1 million+ on new ips such as dead rising, lost planet, gears of war etc. 1 million units sold is a milestone for any game and is what msot companies aim for. If you think hardcore gaming is dieing, think again.

JPOBS

360 has a higher attach rate than the Wii, and that is something publishers look at very closely.

Wii?

Lol. It's sort of how if HD is meant to be the new standard, it's not high definition... it's Standard Definition (SD) and everything else is just LD...

It'll be a while till that happens and we'll probably have Super-Mega-In-Your-Face-High-Definition by then...

[QUOTE="JPOBS"]

[QUOTE="jg4xchamp"]also a ton of games sold over a million on the 360 alone

Bioshock
Dead Rising
Lost Planet
Mass Effect
Viva Pinata
Saints Row
GRAW
Rainbow Six Vegas
GRAW 2
Rainbow Six Vegas 2
Gears of War-over 5 million
COD 2,3,4- all sold over a million
Forza 2
PGR 3
Dead or Alive 4

Heck Lost Odyssey is on its way. and thats a jrpgjg4xchamp

i think about 40 games have sold atleast 1 million on the xbox since launch

gentlemen, let's not forget that halo 3 made $170 million in 24 hours in the US alone. that's 2.83 million copies of halo 3 at $60 a game or 1.41 million copies at $120 (for the legendary edition.) it's safe to say that halo 3 sold well over 2 million copies in 24 hours in just the US alone.

i can't wait to see how many copies og GeOW get sold in the US in its first 24 hours.

[QUOTE="fluxorator"]

The Wii is selling fast because its more of a "secondary console" to most gamers and just a toy to casual gamers... Notice there are and never will be as many Wii supporters on System wars compared to any other platform? Even though they should outnumber everyone...

Casual gaming is a lucrative buisness but it's not one thats going to last. The Wii will do well, but I doubt we'll be seeing more of its kind any time soon.

dgsag

That's because the Wii's audience: soccer moms, 12 and under children, grandparents, don't go to gaming forums to spout BS about their favorite platform... :|

[QUOTE="jg4xchamp"]Oh and for kicks lets throw in the PS3....remember when it didn't sell software?

Resistance- over a million
Uncharted -over a million
MGS 4- Over a million
Ratchet and Clank- over a million
Heavenly Sword- over a million
Motorstorm- over a million

Devil May Cry 4- on both 360 and PS3 a million each
COD 4- same as above

The list goes on.yellowandmushy

[QUOTE="dgsag"][QUOTE="fluxorator"]

The Wii is selling fast because its more of a "secondary console" to most gamers and just a toy to casual gamers... Notice there are and never will be as many Wii supporters on System wars compared to any other platform? Even though they should outnumber everyone...

Casual gaming is a lucrative buisness but it's not one thats going to last. The Wii will do well, but I doubt we'll be seeing more of its kind any time soon.

dr-venkman

That's because the Wii's audience: soccer moms, 12 and under children, grandparents, don't go to gaming forums to spout BS about their favorite platform... :|

Game sales show that there's definitely still a place for big-budget games with high-production values, but if anyone thinks that developers and console makers are eager to let costs get even higher they're deluding themselves.

TC, you mention that GTA IV didn't move consoles because the market for "next gen" consoles is exhausted. It is tapped out, at this price point. The 360 hasn't seen a price cut since release and hte PS3 is still very expensive. At the 450-500 dollar price mark the market is completely saturated with people who are willing to pay that much for a gaming machine.

San Andreas sold 21 million over the PS2's very long lifespan. Once the PS2 hit the 249 dollar mark, San Andreas probably saw a surge in sales. And probably again at the 199 dollar mark.

You're post is pretty informative, but misleading.

[QUOTE="JPOBS"]

1) people need to stop using "next-gen" to describe THIS GEN of gaming. Its been almost 3 years now, seriously, the habit should be broken.

2) SA sold 21 million on a console of usebase 100+ million in 2 years. GTA IV sold 9 million on consoles whose total dont even top 40 million, in 2 months. where the alarm?

furthermore, the 360 has proven itself to be able to sell 1 million+ on new ips such as dead rising, lost planet, gears of war etc. 1 million units sold is a milestone for any game and is what msot companies aim for. If you think hardcore gaming is dieing, think again.

Sooshy

360 has a higher attach rate than the Wii, and that is something publishers look at very closely.

Not as closely as you may think!

If this was two years ago when everyone is predicting that this round, everyone will be very close to each other, then it may have matters.

But now that the Wii is creaming the two HD consoles, attach-ratio really becomes less and less important. Total software sales becomes more and more apparant. Why? Well, think of this:

At the current rate, PS3 and X360 at best will hope for 30-40 million units sold at the end of it's lifetime. Let's ay X360 sold 35 million and PS3 40 (sorry, without Japan, X360 will be hurting some). And let's ay X360 software attach ratio goes up to 8 and Ps3 holds steady at 6

X360: 35 x 8 = 280 million units of software sold per year.

PS3: 40 X 6 = 240 million

But the way things are going, the Wii will top 100 million by March 2011! Let's say because of all the casual presence, Wii software attach ratio drops to 5 per person.

100 x 5......Yea, you can already see where the massacre begins!

500 million software units per year......That pie is almost twice the size of the COMBINED software units for both the Ps3 and X360! That's HUGE and this is why many third-party developers are kicking themselves! All of a sudden, software attach ratios doesn't seem to be important is it? And the disturbing fact is, as the time wears on, the market leader's software attach ratio actually goes UP, not DOWN so the massacre can be even worse!

[QUOTE="dgsag"][QUOTE="fluxorator"]

The Wii is selling fast because its more of a "secondary console" to most gamers and just a toy to casual gamers... Notice there are and never will be as many Wii supporters on System wars compared to any other platform? Even though they should outnumber everyone...

Casual gaming is a lucrative buisness but it's not one thats going to last. The Wii will do well, but I doubt we'll be seeing more of its kind any time soon.

dr-venkman

That's because the Wii's audience: soccer moms, 12 and under children, grandparents, don't go to gaming forums to spout BS about their favorite platform... :|

The fact of the matter is, the way the Wii is saleing is disturbing in anther way, something that's a die hard Cow or lemming's worst nightmare....

The Wii is what, up to 28 million units sold world wide now? (Based on 25 million units sold til March this year and 2.4 million units made per month). This fast rate speaks not only are "Soccer moms, kids and grandparents" are buying the console, but many hardcore gamers like myself! If the Wii does not have the hardcores interested, then subtract around 5 million off of the console userbase and the software, especially hardcore games like Zack and Wiki, SMG, SSBB etc won't be doing this well.

[QUOTE="gurjiwan"][QUOTE="blitzkid1"]

Call of Duty 4 sold 10 million and still selling.

Wii Sports has sold 24 million and still selling.

dgsag

Thats not a fair comparison lol, considering wii sports comes with the damn console...

What about Wii Fit, that game has been on the top of Amazon's list for months now, beating out both GTAs...

I don't know if its on top of amazons list, but wii fit did not beat out gta overall. Look at the May NPDs. Gta sold 871300 copies for the 360 and 442900 for the ps3 while wii fit did 687500. Not saying wii fit didn't sell well, it sold great but it didnt beat out gta.

[QUOTE="dgsag"][QUOTE="gurjiwan"][QUOTE="blitzkid1"]

Call of Duty 4 sold 10 million and still selling.

Wii Sports has sold 24 million and still selling.

gurjiwan

Thats not a fair comparison lol, considering wii sports comes with the damn console...

What about Wii Fit, that game has been on the top of Amazon's list for months now, beating out both GTAs...

I don't know if its on top of amazons list, but wii fit did not beat out gta overall. Look at the May NPDs. Gta sold 871300 copies for the 360 and 442900 for the ps3 while wii fit did 687500. Not saying wii fit didn't sell well, it sold great but it didnt beat out gta.

Wii Fit was severlly constrained since launch. The one I got (Preorder) i had to give it away to my parents because they couldn't find it...I finally got one on a lucky break at the local Fry's Electronics. They had only two left. The supplies are supposed to back to normal now.

This kind of talk has been going on for a while, but I still don't believe "hardcore" gaming is dying fast like so many have claimed.

Note that I put "hardcore" in quotes, as I slightly disagree with your definition. Big-budget doesn't necessarily mean hardcore, although most of those games are more involved than, say, Wii Sports. I'm sure you realize that games like GTA IV and Halo 3 do have some "casual" appeal--but it's more towards teenage boys and college students, as opposed to the "soccer moms" that people love to whine about.

On another note, so many Wii-haters keep dishing out the same old "Casuals don't buy games!!!" line. I can't tell you how many times I've heard upset lemmings use that line as they tout 360 attach rate and software sales. If that's true (I'm sure there's some truth to it), then how in the heck is every publisher going to 'abandon the hardcore for the casual' and still stay in business? Huh?

Anyways, all in all, what you consider "hardcore" gaming is not as endangered as you think.

[QUOTE="Sooshy"][QUOTE="JPOBS"]

1) people need to stop using "next-gen" to describe THIS GEN of gaming. Its been almost 3 years now, seriously, the habit should be broken.

2) SA sold 21 million on a console of usebase 100+ million in 2 years. GTA IV sold 9 million on consoles whose total dont even top 40 million, in 2 months. where the alarm?

furthermore, the 360 has proven itself to be able to sell 1 million+ on new ips such as dead rising, lost planet, gears of war etc. 1 million units sold is a milestone for any game and is what msot companies aim for. If you think hardcore gaming is dieing, think again.

StryderK

360 has a higher attach rate than the Wii, and that is something publishers look at very closely.

Not as closely as you may think!

If this was two years ago when everyone is predicting that this round, everyone will be very close to each other, then it may have matters.

But now that the Wii is creaming the two HD consoles, attach-ratio really becomes less and less important. Total software sales becomes more and more apparant. Why? Well, think of this:

At the current rate, PS3 and X360 at best will hope for 30-40 million units sold at the end of it's lifetime. Let's ay X360 sold 35 million and PS3 40 (sorry, without Japan, X360 will be hurting some). And let's ay X360 software attach ratio goes up to 8 and Ps3 holds steady at 6

X360: 35 x 8 = 280 million units of software sold per year.

PS3: 40 X 6 = 240 million

But the way things are going, the Wii will top 100 million by March 2011! Let's say because of all the casual presence, Wii software attach ratio drops to 5 per person.

100 x 5......Yea, you can already see where the massacre begins!

500 million software units per year......That pie is almost twice the size of the COMBINED software units for both the Ps3 and X360! That's HUGE and this is why many third-party developers are kicking themselves! All of a sudden, software attach ratios doesn't seem to be important is it? And the disturbing fact is, as the time wears on, the market leader's software attach ratio actually goes UP, not DOWN so the massacre can be even worse!

How can you say that when the best selling games on the Wii are Super Mario Galaxy and Super Smash Brothers Brawl, with both selling more than any one game on any one console save Halo 3 (and Brawl has a pretty good chance to pass it when it releases in Europe).

[QUOTE="StryderK"][QUOTE="Sooshy"][QUOTE="JPOBS"] pielover666

I guess you missed the word "ALMOST"............Which I'll end there cause you are just seeing what you want to see.......

And besides, "more hardcore games" does not mean Nintendo will end casual support. Where did you get that idea is the big black question mark.

[QUOTE="pielover666"][QUOTE="StryderK"][QUOTE="Sooshy"][QUOTE="JPOBS"] StryderK

I guess you missed the word "ALMOST"............Which I'll end there cause you are just seeing what you want to see.......

And besides, "more hardcore games" does not mean Nintendo will end casual support. Where did you get that idea is the big black question mark.

I think it's safe to say that the era of next-gen gaming as a driving force is over. Why? As of the week ending June 7th (the most recent tally available), just over 9 million copies of the highly touted Grand Theft Auto IV had been sold worldwide for the Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 combined, according to VGChartz.

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004's GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies. With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise's latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copies total. What's more, it cost a record $100 million to develop.

But it gets worse.

Despite being part of one of the most popular video game series of all time, the arrival of GTA IV failed to boost sales of new next-generation consoles. (PS3 and 360 are defined as "next-gen" for boasting the best and latest graphics features.) Meanwhile, sales of the non-next-gen, GTA IV-less Nintendo Wii were double that of PS3/360's numbers combined. If Grand Theft Auto can't move more machines, nothing can. Which not only suggests that the market for next-gen consoles has been exhausted, but that the audience for big budget, AAA next-gen titles has been tapped out, too.

Which is why I think GTA IV is next-gen's siren song, and a sign of drastic changes to come. Expect to see games made for lower budgets, targeted at wider audiences (ones that aren't fixated on high-end 3D graphics) and delivered over broadband with a micropayment program in place. Don't expect a follow-up to the 360 or PS3 anytime soon, either. In other words, the days when so-called "next-gen" gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry's future will be shaped by games like Rock Band.

http://gigaom.com/2008/06/18/why-gta-iv-was-the-beginning-of-the-end/

I've been saying this from the beginning. Hardcore gaming may have found its temporary home on the 360 and PS3, but its not strong enough to fight off the sheer numbers of Wii's potential audience. Expect "AAA" game development to drop in the next few years for these consoles...

dgsag

When it was revealed that GTAIV didn't push any console sales industry analysts said right then and there it was because both consoles had already maxed out their sales potential at there current price and it had nothing to do with GTAIV. Now GTAIV sales is a different story, regardless of it selling less than San Andreas it still set the record for fastest selling and it still outsold the majority of other games out there. Few games ever even break 1 mill so to say the game being maxed out at 14 mill not 21 is just asinine.

As for the rest of the article, no. Thats some of the dumbest things I've heard. Wider audience games like Rock Band are not going to take over and they certainly will not end this genration of gaming as we not it. Gaming will always be driven by big budget AAA blockbusters. Because two games Guitar Hero and Rock Band sell well does not mean that they are taking over. As for the Wii, no aspect about the Wii is changing the gaming scene at all, and the only thing that seperates it from the rest of the pack is price. Pure economics, if your product is over half the cost of the competition then its going to sell. And to bring up all these points about interactivity with the remote or not needing expensive HD graphics are moot. Its cheap so it sells, they teach such basic concepts in high school economics....apply them and don't believe this bullcrap.

[QUOTE="StryderK"]

[QUOTE="pielover666"][QUOTE="StryderK"][QUOTE="Sooshy"][QUOTE="JPOBS"] pielover666

I guess you missed the word "ALMOST"............Which I'll end there cause you are just seeing what you want to see.......

And besides, "more hardcore games" does not mean Nintendo will end casual support. Where did you get that idea is the big black question mark.

Again, "Almost" is just that "Almost", not exactly on the money. I'm too tired to do math so take it as you will since my point is that developers does nto look at attach-ration when one of the competitors is creaming the other two like an elephant crushing an ant!

And I read Nintendo's news report and no where did they say they will stop supporting the casual market. How and where you got that is news to me, especially since this is flying in front of Wii Fit, Wii Play, and Wii Sports (In Japan) sales! Casual market is exploding and Nintendo, just because they announced a few hardcore games, all of a sudden means they are stopping support for the casual market? Only a brain dead fanboy will say that! Nintendo making hardcore games obvious means they want BOTH market! How or why they giving up BILLIONS of dollars from the casual market is good business? That's the questions I want to know!