How long will it take for the PS3 to overtake the 360 in total sales?

How long do you guys think it will take the PS3 to overtake the 360 in total sales? Will it happen, or will the 360 remain dominant in the HD console war?

Things are certainly changing. Sony has announced price drops for the US, and a value pack for PAL territories, while games like Uncharted, Lair, Heavenly Sword, Ratchet and GTAIV make their way to the PS3 for the holiday season.

MS also has a very solid lineup and software sales will be very strong with Halo 3 and GTAIV but will consumers choose the PS3 instead seeing games like FFXIII/MGSIV/GT5 on the horizon? Or will consumers pick up the 360 for Halo 3, Mass Effect, Bioshock and GTAIV?

I personally think PS3 is going to overtake the 360 in 2008 sometime. Not sure just when yet, but that's my prediction for now. What do you guys think?

Late-2008.

Late-2008.

BioShockOwnz

Agreed completely.

How long do you guys think it will take the PS3 to overtake the 360 in total sales? Will it happen, or will the 360 remain dominant in the HD console war?

Things are certainly changing. Sony has announced price drops for the US, and a value pack for PAL territories, while games like Uncharted, Lair, Heavenly Sword, Ratchet and GTAIV make their way to the PS3 for the holiday season.

MS also has a very solid lineup and software sales will be very strong with Halo 3 and GTAIV but will consumers choose the PS3 instead seeing games like FFXIII/MGSIV/GT5 on the horizon? Or will consumers pick up the 360 for Halo 3, Mass Effect, Bioshock and GTAIV?

I personally think PS3 is going to overtake the 360 in 2008 sometime. Not sure just when yet, but that's my prediction for now. What do you guys think?

the-very-best

In order for that to happen PS3 needs more titles like GT5 and FFXIII.

Not to be fanboyish but... I don't think the PS3 will overtake either the 360 or Wii in total sales... ever... (I didn't say the PS3 sucked...)brightshadow525

That's not fanboyish. It's a prediction, yours could be right, mine could be right, you never know. Just gotta wait and see.

My reasoning is that Sony has a stronger 2008 lineup and I think PS2 owners will make the transfer next year to play continuations of their favourite series.

Late-2008.

BioShockOwnz

I agree... late 2008 or early 2009.

when all those jrpg's comes out in japanTnasty11

Even if the Japanese start buying PS3s (doubtful considering Nintendos grasp) and they buy it at the rate they buy the Wii, it will still take a number of years to overcome the 360s lead overall. The 360 still sells well in the US, so Sony wont make much headway here very fast.

It won't... Sony has priced themselves out of any contention with M$ or Nintendo... OhSnapitz

Even if the Japanese start buying PS3s (doubtful considering Nintendos grasp) and they buy it at the rate they buy the Wii, it will still take a number of years to overcome the 360s lead overall. The 360 still sells well in the US, so Sony wont make much headway here very fast.

gromit007

Wii and PS3 are targeting different markets (from what I can see). I don't think Wii sales will drop when PS3 sales rise in Japan.

As for the US, Gran Turismo has always been popular there, and I think Lair/HS/Uncharted will be top sellers this holiday season, all around the world.

It only outsold the Xbox 360 by 6,000 units for one week after the $100 "price cut" was announced. At that rate, the PS3 wouldn't outsell the Xbox 360 in the lifetime of the two systems. I don't see the PS3 overtaking the Xbox 360 in 2008 - until Sony gets serious about getting the PS3 price down to around $300, it's not going to win the mass market - it'll peter out the way the 360 has been doing.

Cut the price Sony! I want a PS3 more than I wants a cheeseburger! And I wants cheeseburger!bulb_or_parrot

Yes, but that's just here in the US. The PS3 has also been outselling the 360 in most European countries and obviously Japan.... And it hasn't seen a price drop in those territories yet. The fact that the PS3 outsold the 360 while still costing more than the MOST expensive sku of the 360 says enough in itself, think about it. If the 360 is not more than $50 cheaper than the PS3 by the time the PS3 drops to $399, it will be game over.

[QUOTE="OhSnapitz"]It won't... Sony has priced themselves out of any contention with M$ or Nintendo... Tnasty11

He's not wrong at all. $500-$600 is not a mass market friendly price. I still stick by my prediction because I am predicting that once Sony is done with their 60 GB liquidation, then they will lower the price of the 80 GB.

Never. Especially since the Falcon should be coming out by the end of the year.manningbowl135

:lol: You think the average consumer cares about that?

[QUOTE="Tnasty11"][QUOTE="OhSnapitz"]It won't... Sony has priced themselves out of any contention with M$ or Nintendo... BioShockOwnz

He's not wrong at all. $500-$600 is not a mass market friendly price. I still stick by my prediction because I am predicting that once Sony is done with their 60 GB liquidation, then they will lower the price of the 80 GB.

I agree, I think 80GB will be $499 as soon as the 60GB is sold out. And I think they'll drop it again to $399 in 2008 (late probably) which is when I really expect the PS3 to boom in sales.

Never. Especially since the Falcon should be coming out by the end of the year.manningbowl135

[QUOTE="BioShockOwnz"]

[QUOTE="Tnasty11"][QUOTE="OhSnapitz"]It won't... Sony has priced themselves out of any contention with M$ or Nintendo... the-very-best

He's not wrong at all. $500-$600 is not a mass market friendly price. I still stick by my prediction because I am predicting that once Sony is done with their 60 GB liquidation, then they will lower the price of the 80 GB.

I agree, I think 80GB will be $499 as soon as the 60GB is sold out. And I think they'll drop it again to $399 in 2008 (late probably) which is when I really expect the PS3 to boom in sales.

If Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $399(for the 80 gig) expect M$ to drop the price of the premium to $299.. And we'll be right back to square one..

2009 is my guess. That's probably when PS3 will be selling at full force.Trading_Zoner

I agree with that too. All the big games will be out by then. Consumers will find it easy to jump on the PS3 bandwagon when they see GT, MGS, GTA, FF, Uncharted, Haze, Heavenly Sword, Lair, Ratchet, Resistance are all out.

[QUOTE="Tnasty11"]when all those jrpg's comes out in japangromit007

Even if the Japanese start buying PS3s (doubtful considering Nintendos grasp) and they buy it at the rate they buy the Wii, it will still take a number of years to overcome the 360s lead overall. The 360 still sells well in the US, so Sony wont make much headway here very fast.

Actually US sales of the 360 have dropped 60%, while sales of both the PS3 & the Wii have increased. On top of that, Sony dominates the 360 not only in Japan but in Europe also. Twenty million PS2's were sold in Japan last gen... so yes, a pick up of sales in Japan is VERY significant in outselling the 360 as a whole. And the sales of PS3's are now increasing each week in Japan... a trend that should continue as they keep getting new games targeted to Japanese gamers (and as they get their first price drop as well).

[QUOTE="Trading_Zoner"]2009 is my guess. That's probably when PS3 will be selling at full force.the-very-best

I agree with that too. All the big games will be out by then. Consumers will find it easy to jump on the PS3 bandwagon when they see GT, MGS, GTA, FF, Uncharted, Haze, Heavenly Sword, Lair, Ratchet, Resistance are all out.

And many many more games that haven't even been announced yet.

Also that's when I see the Wiis sales die down alot. People will realize that the real next gen systems are what they really want, and when they look at the games, they will go PS3.

its just a matter of time. probably when games like FF 13 and MGS 4 came out.

[QUOTE="gromit007"]

[QUOTE="Tnasty11"]when all those jrpg's comes out in japanSgt_Hale

Even if the Japanese start buying PS3s (doubtful considering Nintendos grasp) and they buy it at the rate they buy the Wii, it will still take a number of years to overcome the 360s lead overall. The 360 still sells well in the US, so Sony wont make much headway here very fast.

Actually US sales of the 360 have dropped 60%, while sales of both the PS3 & the Wii have increased. On top of that, Sony dominates the 360 not only in Japan but in Europe also. Twenty million PS2's were sold in Japan last gen... so yes, a pick up of sales in Japan is VERY significant in outselling the 360 as a whole. And the sales of PS3's are now increasing each week in Japan... a trend that should continue as they keep getting new games targeted to Japanese gamers (and as they get their first price drop as well).

You might be taking that quote out of context... They said that the 360 numbers dropped 60% based off of last years sales... We don't know what the system's sold last month because the NPD haven't released any numbers yet... it's premature to make those kind of predictions..

And many many more games that haven't even been announced yet.

Also that's when I see the Wiis sales die down alot. People will realize that the real next gen systems are what they really want, and when they look at the games, they will go PS3.

Trading_Zoner

I don't think Wii sales dropping or rising will have any effect on the PS3 though (imo). They're targeting really different markets. Non gamers aren't going to buy a PS3 for Singstar, Eyetoy and Home when it's $400 or more.

They're going to stick with the Wii for this whole gen but I think the GTA/Burnout/SSX etc casuals and hardcore gamers will make the move to the PS3 next year for main entries in big series.

[QUOTE="the-very-best"][QUOTE="BioShockOwnz"]

[QUOTE="Tnasty11"][QUOTE="OhSnapitz"]It won't... Sony has priced themselves out of any contention with M$ or Nintendo... OhSnapitz

He's not wrong at all. $500-$600 is not a mass market friendly price. I still stick by my prediction because I am predicting that once Sony is done with their 60 GB liquidation, then they will lower the price of the 80 GB.

I agree, I think 80GB will be $499 as soon as the 60GB is sold out. And I think they'll drop it again to $399 in 2008 (late probably) which is when I really expect the PS3 to boom in sales.

If Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $399(for the 80 gig) expect M$ to drop the price of the premium to $299.. And we'll be right back to square one..

Consumers are waiting for the PS3 to drop in price, not comparing the price to the 360 like fanboys do. The 360 has a system only $50 more than the Wii and is still suffering from slowing sales globaly. Their games don't have the same universal appeal that PS3 & Wii are known for.

I'm sure that a price drop will help to re-invigorate 360 sales... but unfortunately, they're in a tough position financially as it is. Their games division was supposed to reach profitability this year. There was an article on GS back in Feb/March in which Moore stated that jobs would be on the line if the gaming division could not reach profitability this year... and here we are in July with him 'resigning' from Microsoft. It will be an interesting race to watch for sure. I think that Microsoft did make some giant leaps forward this gen... just don't think they were good enough for the long term.

I personally think never. Too much lead time for the 360 and slow start for the PS3. Sony really needs to figure out their pricing strategy. Price dropping existing SKUs in order to introduce new ones doesnt really make a lot of sense. It would make it hard for anyone to buy one if in the back of their minds customers are thinking 'I shoul wait, there may be a cheaper one coming soon'.gromit007

i would think 360 would be past 11 million so anything can happen

[QUOTE="manningbowl135"]Never. Especially since the Falcon should be coming out by the end of the year.Trading_Zoner

:lol: You think the average consumer cares about that?

That doesn't make any sense. The Falcon should fix the Xbox360 hardware issues and make it cheaper. I think the average consumer cares about that.

If Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $399(for the 80 gig) expect M$ to drop the price of the premium to $299.. And we'll be right back to square one..

OhSnapitz

Not really.

It is not necessarily the case that the cheapest consoles sells the most. It is a price-value ratio that determines market demand.

By 2009, blu-ray will have already become the de facto standard, and by my estimates the PS3's portfolio will be the strongest of all three.

These two key factors, I predict, will allow PS3 sales to pass those of the 360.

[QUOTE="OhSnapitz"]

If Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $399(for the 80 gig) expect M$ to drop the price of the premium to $299.. And we'll be right back to square one..

fuzzysquash

Not really.

It is not necessarily the case that the cheapest consoles sells the most. It is a price-value ratio that determines market demand.

By 2009, blu-ray will have already become the de facto standard, and by my estimates the PS3's portfolio will be the strongest of all three.

These two key factors, I predict, will allow PS3 sales to pass those of the 360.

well, at the current selling rate, the PS3 will never overtake the 360 in sales. Will that change in the future? Not unless Sony can find broader appeal for its console through either a real price drop or continuing to build up its game library. Maybe in 2008 when many of the PS3's big hitters are released are we going to see a huge turn around in sales. But in the immediate future (this holiday)? Not so much.DrinkDuff

The CURRENT saling rate??? It'sCURRENTLY outselling the 360 globaly. Now I do believe this to be pretty temporary & would be surprised if it even outsells the 360 again in Aug. But I'm willing to bet it has a chance at outselling the 360 again in time for the holiday and certainly over the long term. Sony is not as dumb as fanboys would like to think. Expect some major surprises to be announced around Oct/Nov to spike sales.

I still maintain that the 360, Wii (unless they fix a few things), and PS3 will all be pretty much neck-to-neck-to-neck. I personally don't see the PS3 outselling the 360 or Wii in total sales ever, even if Blu-Ray wins the format war. 2008 looks pretty strong for PS3, but by that time, many people will have already bought a Wii or 360, especially with GTA 4, Halo 3, Bioshock, and Mass Effect arriving before Christmas.

The PS3's holiday lineup isn't that impressive unfortunately, so I don't think you'll see a huge spike until MGS 4 finally releases as well as FF13. That could be around summer 2008. By then, the 360 and Wii will have already established quite a lead and the PS3 will have a hard time catching up.

Crappy for us gamers, though. Just as we thought Sony dropped the price, we realize they pulled a 'bait and switch'. This stunt here isn't gonna win Sony any gamers. Deception like that pisses people off. If anything, we will see the PS3 pick up steam in fall 2008 and 2009. But it will be too late. Sony will probably end up 2nd or 3rd, its a toss up between any of the three companies. Like I said, I think all consoles will be so close in sales.

The CURRENT saling rate??? It'sCURRENTLY outselling the 360 globaly. Now I do believe this to be pretty temporary & would be surprised if it even outsells the 360 again in Aug.Sgt_Hale

Umm, it has outsold the 360 for about a week, because of the "price drop". Sales will probably return to dismal after the 60 GB units have cleared. Sorry, but offering the same system, minus PS2 chip, burt with an extra 20 GB is hardly worth $600. Not to a gamer anyway.

[QUOTE="fuzzysquash"][QUOTE="OhSnapitz"]

If Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $399(for the 80 gig) expect M$ to drop the price of the premium to $299.. And we'll be right back to square one..

bulb_or_parrot

Not really.

It is not necessarily the case that the cheapest consoles sells the most. It is a price-value ratio that determines market demand.

By 2009, blu-ray will have already become the de facto standard, and by my estimates the PS3's portfolio will be the strongest of all three.

These two key factors, I predict, will allow PS3 sales to pass those of the 360.

If Sony drops the price of the PS3 to $399(for the 80 gig) expect M$ to drop the price of the premium to $299.. And we'll be right back to square one..

OhSnapitz

I think if the PS3 is $399 with some solid new IPs (Uncharted, Infamous, Heavenly Sword, White Knight Story, Lair, Little Big Planet) and major returning series (MGSIV, Burnout 5, FFXIII, SSX 4, GTAIV, GT5, Tekken 6) consumers will respond well.

I think if they're going to spend so much money on a HD console, they're going to get the one with a wider variety of quality (big name) titles, and I think the PS3 does that better than the 360, but that's my view.

Maybe consumers will think differently.

[QUOTE="Sgt_Hale"][QUOTE="gromit007"]

[QUOTE="Tnasty11"]when all those jrpg's comes out in japanOhSnapitz

Even if the Japanese start buying PS3s (doubtful considering Nintendos grasp) and they buy it at the rate they buy the Wii, it will still take a number of years to overcome the 360s lead overall. The 360 still sells well in the US, so Sony wont make much headway here very fast.

Actually US sales of the 360 have dropped 60%, while sales of both the PS3 & the Wii have increased. On top of that, Sony dominates the 360 not only in Japan but in Europe also. Twenty million PS2's were sold in Japan last gen... so yes, a pick up of sales in Japan is VERY significant in outselling the 360 as a whole. And the sales of PS3's are now increasing each week in Japan... a trend that should continue as they keep getting new games targeted to Japanese gamers (and as they get their first price drop as well).

You might be taking that quote out of context... They said that the 360 numbers dropped 60% based off of last years sales... We don't know what the system's sold last month because the NPD haven't released any numbers yet... it's premature to make those kind of predictions..

I did not take it out of context b/c I was referring to year on year sales as well. Any analysis that you have read over the last few months has pointed to slowing 360 sales, period. I did not say that they slowed 60% since last month! But the point is that they never had a big bang of explosive sales to begin with... and instead of building up momentum, it has been waning. I think a price cut would turn it around, but it's going to be hard for them to do a competitive price cut now.

I did not take it out of context b/c I was referring to year on year sales as well. Any analysis that you have read over the last few months has pointed to slowing 360 sales, period. I did not say that they slowed 60% since last month! But the point is that they never had a big bang of explosive sales to begin with... and instead of building up momentum, it has been waning. I think a price cut would turn it around, but it's going to be hard for them to do a competitive price cut now.

Sgt_Hale

[QUOTE="Sgt_Hale"]

I did not take it out of context b/c I was referring to year on year sales as well. Any analysis that you have read over the last few months has pointed to slowing 360 sales, period. I did not say that they slowed 60% since last month! But the point is that they never had a big bang of explosive sales to begin with... and instead of building up momentum, it has been waning. I think a price cut would turn it around, but it's going to be hard for them to do a competitive price cut now.

subrosian

Never. Especially since the Falcon should be coming out by the end of the year.manningbowl135

I dont know what your talking about? If I dont know what your talking how is going to save the 360. I hope your not think Halo, lol.